Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 19,183
Greetings everybody,
So, gold was going with the 2nd scenario of 3-Drive "Sell" pattern that we've mentioned briefly. Now situation on gold market stands so that it is too risky to sell. Of course, we could discuss common technical analysis practice and make conclusions that now they are partially working due to strong driving factors.
Yesterday J. Powell was a bit more dovish than usual, while escalation between Iran and Israel is at the edge to turn to hot stage. In such situation, few who care about technical signals. Yes, we will share with them, but recognize the risk if you still decide to go short. We call to not sell on daily and above time frames, while intraday sells are possible but with tight control.
Thus, on daily/weekly market still stands overextended. In nearest two days everything depends on NFP data and avoiding of Iran-Israel escalation. Both positive results could trigger the pullback here according to technical picture. Otherwise, especially if escalation starts, it could keep raising, ignoring any technical issues. Our next upside target as you know is 2456$ (difficult to believe that we start calling such numbers...)
First downside reaction hardly will be lower than 2200$ area on daily chart.
On 4H chart I would watch for ~2245-2255$ area. FIrst is, because we have K-support here:
Second is, because of 1H 3-Drive "Sell" pattern. Its minimal target stands at the low between 2nd and 3rd drives, which agrees with the K-area:
So, bears could consider this setup, but be extra careful and recognize risks that we've mentioned above. You need a kind of luck here in a way of strong NFP at least, but better together with the relief on geopolitical stage to succeed.
So, gold was going with the 2nd scenario of 3-Drive "Sell" pattern that we've mentioned briefly. Now situation on gold market stands so that it is too risky to sell. Of course, we could discuss common technical analysis practice and make conclusions that now they are partially working due to strong driving factors.
Yesterday J. Powell was a bit more dovish than usual, while escalation between Iran and Israel is at the edge to turn to hot stage. In such situation, few who care about technical signals. Yes, we will share with them, but recognize the risk if you still decide to go short. We call to not sell on daily and above time frames, while intraday sells are possible but with tight control.
Thus, on daily/weekly market still stands overextended. In nearest two days everything depends on NFP data and avoiding of Iran-Israel escalation. Both positive results could trigger the pullback here according to technical picture. Otherwise, especially if escalation starts, it could keep raising, ignoring any technical issues. Our next upside target as you know is 2456$ (difficult to believe that we start calling such numbers...)
First downside reaction hardly will be lower than 2200$ area on daily chart.
On 4H chart I would watch for ~2245-2255$ area. FIrst is, because we have K-support here:
Second is, because of 1H 3-Drive "Sell" pattern. Its minimal target stands at the low between 2nd and 3rd drives, which agrees with the K-area:
So, bears could consider this setup, but be extra careful and recognize risks that we've mentioned above. You need a kind of luck here in a way of strong NFP at least, but better together with the relief on geopolitical stage to succeed.
