GOLD PRO Weekly, May 02-06, 2016

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
18,564
Fundamentals

(Reuters) Gold and silver prices rallied 2 percent to their highest since January last year on Friday as the Bank of Japan's decision the previous day to hold off expanding monetary stimulus weighed heavily on the dollar, and European and U.S. stocks fell.

The yen hit an 18-month peak versus the U.S. currency and was on course for its biggest weekly gain since the 2008 financial crisis, with poor U.S. growth and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance this week weighing on the dollar.

Spot gold was up 2 percent at $1,291.11 an ounce at 2:16 p.m. EDT (1816 GMT), having reached a 15-month high of $1,296.76. U.S. gold futures for June delivery settled up 1.9 percent at $1,290.50 an ounce.

For the week, the metal is up 4.8 percent in what is set to be its biggest weekly rise since the week ended Feb. 12.

"All the precious metals are up quite strongly on the back of weakness in the dollar, after poor GDP data in the United States and a lack of action by the Bank of Japan," Capital Economics analyst Simona Gambarini said.

"There could be a correction in the price if the dollar starts strengthening again, but we remain positive on gold."

The Fed's policy statement on Wednesday, after leaving interest rates unchanged, also supported gold. The U.S. central bank showed little sign it was in a hurry to tighten monetary policy.

Gold is sensitive to rising interest rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced.

"We believe we are not transitioning to a risk-off world, but simply to a less risk-on one, as lower real rates should stabilize and require stronger global data to then lift interest rates and risk in tandem," said TD Securities in a note.

Silver was up 1.5 percent at $17.80 an ounce, having touched its highest since January 2015 at $17.96 and being on track to rise 15.3 percent this month, its biggest gain since August 2013 as it plays catch-up after lagging gold during its first-quarter surge.

The gold/silver ratio, which measures the number of silver ounces needed to buy an ounce of gold, fell to a six-month low on Friday of 71.8, down from 81.3 at the start of the month.

Platinum was up 2.5 percent at $1,071.49 an ounce, off an earlier 10-month high of $1,080, while palladium rose by as much as 2.3 percent to $634.96 an ounce, the highest in nearly six months.


CFTC Data no doubts shows bullish picture - net long position grows as well as open interest. Still, its value gradually approaches to extreme points. Altghouh this is not yet the all-time high, but definitely the most high level in last 5 years. This moment brings some clouds on a horizon of current gold rally. It's not a time to worry yet, probably, but we should keep an eye on net long position progress.
upload_2016-4-30_22-19-16.png


Technicals
Monthly
Although this was last April week, but market finally has turned to action. As market already has moved above YPP, next target based on pivot framework is YPR1 around 1315 area. Currently price is moving through 1285 Fib level that already has been tested once.

Since New Year gold stands in upside action. Reasons could be different - geopolitics, investors' assets distribution in the beginning of the year. Upside action currently has not changed situation drastically yet on but we will monitor how situation will change.

We still think that currently gold should be mostly driven by geopolitics, rather than economics. This driving factor creates absolutely new scale of uncertainty and leads to very fast changes on Globe political situation. That's why we suspect that gold market hardly will fall dramatically, since we're just in the beginning of different geopolitical tensions. Besides, financial game between Central Banks turns to hot stage and this will add more volatility.

Not just Middle East stands in our focus. We see that fumes of this conflict spread over planet. Recall Paris terrorist attack, Brussels, refugees tensions in EU, Brexit voting, a lot of contradiction inside EU as political as economical - North Stream-2, mutual sanctions, Montenegro NATO membership, right now Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict and a lot of others. China's financial sphere is isolated theme for discussion. All these stuff is happening on a background of reducing population wealth and solvency and currency wars between major economies. Recent Fed shift just proves this conclusion. So, we see that entropy is growing. Currently we could just gamble what game stands under curtain of political meetings among major leaders.

As market gradually starts to come to the same conclusion as gradually situation on gold market starts to change in positive area. International banks purchase gold in big volumes, mostly PBoC and Russian Central Bank. Besides, as now we see clear signs of currency war - gold will get support here either. Germany stands on a way of own gold repatriation from US and UK, as we've mentioned above. Soon probably will follow other countries, say, Netherlands, France and others.

At the same time gold needs to move above 1308 to break current bearish trend by forming upside reversal swing.

Currently action looks very impressive, but on long-term charts it could happen, that we will not get yet clear tendency and gold could turn to some wide range action. Because right now it is too many sources that could initiate impact on gold market. They will push market in one and other sides. Geopolitical situation in the World has reached very high degree of uncertainty and we believe that sooner rather than later it will become a dominating factor for gold market and already it's becoming.

Anyway, gold's shift from downward action to flat one, even it will be wide - already will be significant moment.
Monthly chart trend has turned bullish.

As you can see upside action has started right after Volatility breakout target (that has taken the shape of butterfly "Buy") has been completed. Gold has exceeded Yearly Pivot and this tells on existing bullish trend on monthly chart. As gold is not at overbought here - next logical destination is 1314 area of Yearly PR1.

In general, guys, coming area of 1315-1330 will become a real test of bullish strength. Monthly overbought, YPR1 and Fib level... hardly market will pass it easily and without solid reactions. May we will even get here extended H&S reversal pattern...

gold_m_02_05_16.png


Weekly

Right now on weekly chart we see action that we've expected to get based on inconsistency that we saw on daily chart we H&S pattern. On Friday market has shown upside breakout of pennant pattern. Looks like our assessement was correct and pennant indeed was pattern of energy building for breakout.

On a way up gold has broken not just pennant, but also MPR1 and 1285 Fib level. Retracement after OB level has been hit was mild and market has not reached even minor 3/8 Fib support. This also indirect sign of bullish power.

As we can see gold is not at OB any more here and has pretty much room that allows it to reach 1315-1330 destination point.
gold_w_02_05_16.png

Daily

As we've said almost always, if market forming H&S has moved above right shoulder - it should move above the head. This has happened again. Nice bullish breakout has happened.

Currently we see temporal stop on a way up, since gold has reached OB level on daily chart. Taking in consideration the pace of upward action and how fast it is approaching to 1.27 butterfly extension, we could suggest further upward continuation to 1.618 after some minor retracement.

Besides, 1.618 target agrees with our 1330 target level on monthly chart.
gold_d_02_05_16.png


4-hour
This time frame gives us more than just one setup. As you can see current stop on a way up is temporal indeed, since price has not reached 1.618 AB-CD target as well as any other important targets. This is just 1.618 extension of minor retracement down.

This leads us to some thoughts. First is, as market still stands on extension leg retracement should not be too deep. There are just 2 levels that suitable for this purpose. Nearest one @ 1274 and K-support area around 1260-1263. First level is also acompanied with WPP.

Second - we have excellent thrust up that could be a foundation for DiNapoli directional pattern. And B&B "Buy" here looks more suitable, because, as we've said, this is not a moment for reversal, but for retracement, just to abandone OB condition on daily chart. Hence, if we will get B&B - we will use it for long entry. In current situation B&B has a lot of chances to become not just minor pattern but starting point for upward continuation to 1330 area.
gold_4h_02_05_16.png


Conclusion:
We think that fundamentally gold stands somewhere near bottom and situation is starting to change. But this bottom could be "extended" in time. Long term view has not been impacted by recent price action, since gold mostly is coiling in tight range.

In short-term perspective we expect upside continuation to 1315-1330 area within some weeks. In the beginning of next week we will watch for minor retracement down and possible B&B "Buy" pattern on 4-hour chart.


The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
 
Fundamentals

(Reuters) Gold and silver prices rallied 2 percent to their highest since January last year on Friday as the Bank of Japan's decision the previous day to hold off expanding monetary stimulus weighed heavily on the dollar, and European and U.S. stocks fell.

The yen hit an 18-month peak versus the U.S. currency and was on course for its biggest weekly gain since the 2008 financial crisis, with poor U.S. growth and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance this week weighing on the dollar.

Spot gold was up 2 percent at $1,291.11 an ounce at 2:16 p.m. EDT (1816 GMT), having reached a 15-month high of $1,296.76. U.S. gold futures for June delivery settled up 1.9 percent at $1,290.50 an ounce.

For the week, the metal is up 4.8 percent in what is set to be its biggest weekly rise since the week ended Feb. 12.

"All the precious metals are up quite strongly on the back of weakness in the dollar, after poor GDP data in the United States and a lack of action by the Bank of Japan," Capital Economics analyst Simona Gambarini said.

"There could be a correction in the price if the dollar starts strengthening again, but we remain positive on gold."

The Fed's policy statement on Wednesday, after leaving interest rates unchanged, also supported gold. The U.S. central bank showed little sign it was in a hurry to tighten monetary policy.

Gold is sensitive to rising interest rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced.

"We believe we are not transitioning to a risk-off world, but simply to a less risk-on one, as lower real rates should stabilize and require stronger global data to then lift interest rates and risk in tandem," said TD Securities in a note.

Silver was up 1.5 percent at $17.80 an ounce, having touched its highest since January 2015 at $17.96 and being on track to rise 15.3 percent this month, its biggest gain since August 2013 as it plays catch-up after lagging gold during its first-quarter surge.

The gold/silver ratio, which measures the number of silver ounces needed to buy an ounce of gold, fell to a six-month low on Friday of 71.8, down from 81.3 at the start of the month.

Platinum was up 2.5 percent at $1,071.49 an ounce, off an earlier 10-month high of $1,080, while palladium rose by as much as 2.3 percent to $634.96 an ounce, the highest in nearly six months.


CFTC Data no doubts shows bullish picture - net long position grows as well as open interest. Still, its value gradually approaches to extreme points. Altghouh this is not yet the all-time high, but definitely the most high level in last 5 years. This moment brings some clouds on a horizon of current gold rally. It's not a time to worry yet, probably, but we should keep an eye on net long position progress.
View attachment 25105

Technicals
Monthly

Although this was last April week, but market finally has turned to action. As market already has moved above YPP, next target based on pivot framework is YPR1 around 1315 area. Currently price is moving through 1285 Fib level that already has been tested once.

Since New Year gold stands in upside action. Reasons could be different - geopolitics, investors' assets distribution in the beginning of the year. Upside action currently has not changed situation drastically yet on but we will monitor how situation will change.

We still think that currently gold should be mostly driven by geopolitics, rather than economics. This driving factor creates absolutely new scale of uncertainty and leads to very fast changes on Globe political situation. That's why we suspect that gold market hardly will fall dramatically, since we're just in the beginning of different geopolitical tensions. Besides, financial game between Central Banks turns to hot stage and this will add more volatility.

Not just Middle East stands in our focus. We see that fumes of this conflict spread over planet. Recall Paris terrorist attack, Brussels, refugees tensions in EU, Brexit voting, a lot of contradiction inside EU as political as economical - North Stream-2, mutual sanctions, Montenegro NATO membership, right now Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict and a lot of others. China's financial sphere is isolated theme for discussion. All these stuff is happening on a background of reducing population wealth and solvency and currency wars between major economies. Recent Fed shift just proves this conclusion. So, we see that entropy is growing. Currently we could just gamble what game stands under curtain of political meetings among major leaders.

As market gradually starts to come to the same conclusion as gradually situation on gold market starts to change in positive area. International banks purchase gold in big volumes, mostly PBoC and Russian Central Bank. Besides, as now we see clear signs of currency war - gold will get support here either. Germany stands on a way of own gold repatriation from US and UK, as we've mentioned above. Soon probably will follow other countries, say, Netherlands, France and others.

At the same time gold needs to move above 1308 to break current bearish trend by forming upside reversal swing.

Currently action looks very impressive, but on long-term charts it could happen, that we will not get yet clear tendency and gold could turn to some wide range action. Because right now it is too many sources that could initiate impact on gold market. They will push market in one and other sides. Geopolitical situation in the World has reached very high degree of uncertainty and we believe that sooner rather than later it will become a dominating factor for gold market and already it's becoming.

Anyway, gold's shift from downward action to flat one, even it will be wide - already will be significant moment.
Monthly chart trend has turned bullish.

As you can see upside action has started right after Volatility breakout target (that has taken the shape of butterfly "Buy") has been completed. Gold has exceeded Yearly Pivot and this tells on existing bullish trend on monthly chart. As gold is not at overbought here - next logical destination is 1314 area of Yearly PR1.

In general, guys, coming area of 1315-1330 will become a real test of bullish strength. Monthly overbought, YPR1 and Fib level... hardly market will pass it easily and without solid reactions. May we will even get here extended H&S reversal pattern...

View attachment 25106

Weekly

Right now on weekly chart we see action that we've expected to get based on inconsistency that we saw on daily chart we H&S pattern. On Friday market has shown upside breakout of pennant pattern. Looks like our assessement was correct and pennant indeed was pattern of energy building for breakout.

On a way up gold has broken not just pennant, but also MPR1 and 1285 Fib level. Retracement after OB level has been hit was mild and market has not reached even minor 3/8 Fib support. This also indirect sign of bullish power.

As we can see gold is not at OB any more here and has pretty much room that allows it to reach 1315-1330 destination point.
View attachment 25107
Daily

As we've said almost always, if market forming H&S has moved above right shoulder - it should move above the head. This has happened again. Nice bullish breakout has happened.

Currently we see temporal stop on a way up, since gold has reached OB level on daily chart. Taking in consideration the pace of upward action and how fast it is approaching to 1.27 butterfly extension, we could suggest further upward continuation to 1.618 after some minor retracement.

Besides, 1.618 target agrees with our 1330 target level on monthly chart.
View attachment 25108

4-hour
This time frame gives us more than just one setup. As you can see current stop on a way up is temporal indeed, since price has not reached 1.618 AB-CD target as well as any other important targets. This is just 1.618 extension of minor retracement down.

This leads us to some thoughts. First is, as market still stands on extension leg retracement should not be too deep. There are just 2 levels that suitable for this purpose. Nearest one @ 1274 and K-support area around 1260-1263. First level is also acompanied with WPP.

Second - we have excellent thrust up that could be a foundation for DiNapoli directional pattern. And B&B "Buy" here looks more suitable, because, as we've said, this is not a moment for reversal, but for retracement, just to abandone OB condition on daily chart. Hence, if we will get B&B - we will use it for long entry. In current situation B&B has a lot of chances to become not just minor pattern but starting point for upward continuation to 1330 area.
View attachment 25109

Conclusion:
We think that fundamentally gold stands somewhere near bottom and situation is starting to change. But this bottom could be "extended" in time. Long term view has not been impacted by recent price action, since gold mostly is coiling in tight range.

In short-term perspective we expect upside continuation to 1315-1330 area within some weeks. In the beginning of next week we will watch for minor retracement down and possible B&B "Buy" pattern on 4-hour chart.


The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
Awesome .
 
Good morning,

(Reuters) Gold rose on Tuesday, in another attempt to cross the key $1,300-an-ounce level, as the
U.S. dollar extended losses and as assets of the top bullion fund rose to their highest in over two years.
Gold has rallied sharply since late last week after the dollar slumped on the Federal Reserve's cautious stance towards higher U.S. rates and as the yen soared after the Bank of Japan stood pat on policy last week.
The metal rose to $1,303.60 an ounce on Monday, its strongest since January 2015, but ended the day lower on profit-taking.

"I think gold can reach $1,300-$1,400 in the second quarter. Investors are following the yen-dollar movement and central bank decisions, and the ETF inflows are a very good sign," said Mark To, head of research at Wing Fung Financial Group.

The dollar set a fresh 18-month low versus the yen on Tuesday. The dollar index hit its lowest since January
2015. The dollar weakness and strength in the gold price rally have triggered a sharp increase in money flowing into the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's top gold-backed exchange-traded fund. Assets of the fund rose 2.59 percent, or 20.8 tonnes, to 824.94 tonnes on Monday in its biggest increase since Feb. 22. Holdings are at their highest since December 2013.

Gold may consolidate in a range of $1,289-$1,304 for a day before rising again, Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao said.

Investors will be eyeing U.S. data this week to gauge the strength of the economy and its impact on the Fed's monetary policy. Bullion is sensitive to rising interest rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, while boosting the dollar.

The key data will be U.S. nonfarm payrolls due on Friday. The U.S. economy is expected to have added 200,000 jobs in April, slightly lower than March.

"The non-farm payroll report this week may have a neutral effect on gold given that investors are confident that even if the figures are good, there would not be any move by the Fed (to hike rates) until the second half of this year," Wing Fung's To said.


So, our first target of 1300 has been hit - gold has touched 1.27 butterfly extension. Now it probably could show some relief with minor retracement down. It is logical to suggest that 1260 will become suitable area for this purpose as gold was standing long time there.
Next target is 1.618 extension @ 1330. This level is also important for long-term charts as YPR1 and monthly Fib level. Fast acceleration to 1.27 butterfly extension suggests that it should be hit:
gold_d_03_05_16.png


On 4-hour chart we see that "relief" could start by DRPO "Sell" pattern. But it is not as simple as it seems at first glance. Take a look that we have untouched 1.618 AB-CD target slightly higher. Thus, trading of DRPO here could become a tough task to do, since it will demand your skills and experience with turning from DRPO to DRPO "Failure". So, it will be difficult. Thus, we call you to trade this setup only if you have experience with it. Otherwise, it would be better to wait for some other pattern (say, if market will complete 1.618 target we could get small H&S pattern here), or it would be better to skip this setup:
gold_4h_03_05_16.png

For example, Gold could complete this butterfly on hourly chart to hit 1311 AB-CD target:
gold_1h_03_05_16.png


That's being said - be careful with this DRPO "Sell" pattern that could be formed soon. For daily traders - wait first for 1260 K-support area for long entry.
 
Good morning,

(Reuters) Gold fell for a second straight session on Wednesday, slipping further away from a 15-month high as the dollar steadied after recent sharp losses and as two Federal Reserve officials talked up U.S. interest rate hikes this year.

"The difficulty gold is experiencing in staying above $1,300 does not necessarily mean the bull rally is ending. But the rally may be tired and in need of consolidation. This can trigger profit-taking," said HSBC analyst James Steel.

The United States could see two further interest rate rises this year, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said on Tuesday. San Francisco Fed President John Williams said Tuesday that he would support an interest-rate hike in June as long as he sees continued progress on the economy, inflation and jobs.

Gold prices have gained 21 percent since the start of the year on the outlook that the Fed has slowed its expected pace of rate increases. Bullion is sensitive to rising interest rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. The recent rally in prices has prompted investors to pour money into gold funds.

Assets of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's top gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose to their highest since December 2013 on Monday.



So, guys, as on other assets, gold right now stands in temporal relief and retracement down after reaching first important target @ 1300.
Our medium term suggestion is based on combination of CFTC data and important 1330 level. As speculative long position on gold almost has reached all time high level - 1330 could become precisely an area that will become major barrier for gold in medium-term perspective and where particularly gold could start major retracement down.
At the same time, former H&S pattern that has failed and that we've talked about for a month will become just a left shoulder of larger pattern. Taking in consideration almost vertical action on daily chart right to 1.27 butterfly extension - this tells on further upward continuation to 1.618 in nearest time. May be employment reports (ADP, NFP) will become a triggering factor for this issue.
gold_d_04_05_16.png


On 4-hour chart our worryings about possible upward spike to 1311 have been resolved - DRPO has been confirmed and stand in progress now. Destination point is 1260 area. There we will start to watch for upside reversal patterns again:

gold_4h_04_05_16.png
 
Good morning,

(Reuters) Gold firmed after three days of losses on Thursday on weaker global equities, but held below a
15-month peak as the dollar rebounded against the yen after arecent slump.

Asian shares slipped for a seventh session on Thursday after a mixed batch of U.S. economic data. Global equity markets fell for a second straight day on Wednesday. The greenback firmed broadly on optimism the U.S. economy would bounce back after nearly stalling in the first quarter. It also recovered against the yen after falling to an 18-month low earlier this week.

"I think the (gold) market got a little carried away on the long side. At the moment, we are just seeing some profit-taking and consolidation around these levels," said a Sydney-based precious metals trader.
"The trend is still in place. If we see a soft employment number, gold could climb to $1,300 again," he said.

Gold jumped to a 15-month top of $1,303.60 on Monday as the dollar slumped against the yen after the Bank of Japan stood pat on policy. The dollar has been able to regain some ground after data on Wednesday showed that the U.S. services sector expanded in April as new orders and employment accelerated.

But the U.S. growth outlook was dimmed by another report on Wednesday showing private employers hired the fewest number of workers in three years in April. U.S. interest rates futures rose on Wednesday as the
weaker-than-expected private jobs growth in April caused traders to price in lower chances the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its June policy meeting. Gold is sensitive to interest rates and returns on other assets as rising rates lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

The metal has risen 21 percent this year as expectations faded that the Fed would push ahead with interest rate hikes. Investor interest in gold remains robust. Assets in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 0.07 percent to 825.54 tonnes on Wednesday, their highest in over two years.


Here we bring just minor add on to recent analysis, since today we could better estimate possible destination of current retracement. On daily chart nothing has changed significantly, gold still stands in respond to 1.27 butterfly point:
gold_d_05_05_16.png

Our DRPO "Sell" pattern has been completed, but market ha dropped slightly lower just to touch WPP. Also you can see that MPP also stands untouched yet, thus, we could get another leg down for 10$ more. This will be precisely the level that we're watching for - 1260-1265:
gold_4h_05_05_16.png


On hourly chart it could take the shape of butterfly "buy". If downward action will be gradual - it could become precisely the pattern that we will use tomorrow for long entry. Hope that NFP will support our intention:
gold_1h_05_05_16.png
 
Good morning,

(Reuters) Gold was set to post its biggest weekly decline in six weeks on Friday as the U.S. dollar
firmed ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report that could provide clues about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

A strong payrolls number could prompt the Fed to raise rates sooner than later, hurting non-interest paying gold. The metal has rallied nearly 21 percent this year on expectations that the Fed will slow the pace of rate hikes.

Economists polled by Reuters forecast U.S. employers likely added 202,000 workers in April following a 215,000 increase in March with the jobless rate holding at 5 percent.

For the week, gold was set for a 1.2 percent decline, its biggest weekly drop since the week ended March 25. "If the jobs data is bad, gold will go up... But there is one more set of jobs data before the next Fed meeting in June," said Helen Lau, an analyst at Argonaut Securities in Hong Kong. "Gold's outlook will be very data dependant. Right now, it is the currency trade and hawkish comments from Fed officials
that are weighing on it," she said.

The dollar rose to a one-week high against a basket of major currencies on Thursday after sliding to a 15-month low this week as traders closed out profitable bets against the greenback before the payrolls report.

The Fed raised rates for the first time in a decade in December from near zero but has since stood pat, in part because of global economic uncertainty. Gold is sensitive to interest rates as rising rates lift the
opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday the Fed could raise rates at its meeting next month if the economic data calls for it, despite the fact that traders see only a slim chance of it happening.
Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said he was as yet undecided about backing a rate rise next month even though he expects the economy to rebound from a weak first quarter of growth.

Investor sentiment toward gold appeared to be bullish with assets of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rising to 829.44 tonnes on Thursday to the highest in over two years.


As other assets, gold market is waiting for NFP. On daily chart we do not see any big chances. Market still keeps bullish sentiment by far - standing above 1260 area:
gold_d_06_05_16.png


On 4-hour chart gold has not started upward action yet, although it already has reached DRPO target and WPP. As we've suggested gold indeed could touch MPP before reversal. At least chances that this will happen are greater than will not. At first glance, it seem that market is forming 3-Drive "buy", but this is the shape only, and gold doesn't hold it's ratios.
Thus, one thing that we could do this is to watch for bearish grabber. If it will be formed, then, definitely market will reach MPP. Anyway, wait for NFP data, currently technical picture suggests that they should be worse than expected. As soon as we will get bullish reversal pattern o hourly chart - we could try to go long.

If data will be better and gold will drop below 1260 - don't go long.
gold_4h_06_05_16.png
 
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