IVT Technical FOREX analyses - US DOLLAR & Major pairs

[Lud Trader]

I am a professional trader at Interactiv Trading (IVT). We trade CFDs on the FOREX, indices & commodities market.

We aim to create a community where we teach our members how to trade, and then allow everyone to share their experience. We provide educational webinars & Live Trading sessions and also send trading signals in real time sent through mobile phone application.

Here, I am going to share the technical analyses we provide for our members in addition to the trading signals. We will be looking at the US DOLLAR, the EUR/USD, the GBP/USD, the USD/JPY the USD/CAD, and the AUD/CAD. I will be giving you our predictions on each of these pairs. We will be talking about the major levels of structure, the chart pattern, the wave structure, the key points that we are looking for trading opportunities from, and also how we plan to trade based what the is telling us right now.

A follow up of each analyses is provided in the CHAT area. This market review is scheduled on Twitch each Friday, and every other days on the Interactiv Trading platform. The trading strategy we apply to enter is called the COMBO method, but I am not allowed to share it with you here as patent has been filled by Rodolphe Steffan. You are more than welcome to join us if you want to know more about it.

 

[Lud Trader]

file:///C:/Users/Ludivine/Desktop/1_USDollar.PNG USDOLLAR - Analysis made on the 4th of December

FPA Forums Team Note: You need to upload the file as an attachment. We can't see your C: Drive.

 

[Lud Trader]

My analyses are posted with 1 day of delay. here are the one done on the 4th of December, 2017.

USDOLLAR - No real change regarding the strategy. While prices are inside this bearish regression channel, we are still looking for selling opportunities in the area 11,989-12,010. In the case of a bearish price action, we will target the Fibonacci expansion levels and the median line. I will keep you updated if the market gives us the expected price action.

$EURUSD - We were looking for short opportunities. The Eurusd is currently above a support level this morning but I have no particular recommendation. This is not obvious to buy the pair as long as the price are inside the bearish andrews fork. Below 1.18, I will be looking for selling opportunities. If prices were to break above the andrew’s fork, I will be looking for buying opportunities. Today bias is neutral.

$GBPUSD If you have followed my last trading plans, you should have a short position on the GBPUSD. As a reminder, The elliott wave invalidation level is 1,3670, and the respective TPs are: 1,34, 1,33, 1,3160 and 1,2920. Prices have reached TP1. GBPUSD is now on a support level. => Protect your position as prices are expected to bounce back.

$USDJPY If you have followed my recommendation, you should have entered a short position on Friday and reached TP1 (risk reward 1/2). This position was automatically closed out because of the bullish GAP. The trading strategy remains the same. We are still looking for selling opportunities but I have to reconsider the situation to check more precisely if 113,26 -113,41 could be a good resistance to go short. For the time being, nothing to do.

$AUDUSD If you have followed my last recommendation, you should have a long position with TP1 reached. Nothing has changed, hold this position – we are targeting TP2 now. I hope to be able to move the stop to 0,7578 very soon.

$USDCAD The pair was approaching the key resistance and possible the upper line of a regression channel where I expected to see a bearish price action. I was not able to propose a short signal on Friday (the resistance was not reached) but I know that some of you succeeded to go short. Very nice, hold your position, target the median line as a logical theorical TP. If the market were to make a new low to validate a double top structure and break below the actual support, I would be able to propose a short opportunity after a retracement phase. For those who are short on this pair, the current support could be a first take profit area.

 

[Lud Trader]

5th of December

USDOLLAR
A bearish move has been initiated lower than expected on the USDOLLAR. Usually prices reach at least 38.2% before that the main trend resumes. Prices are currently in the middle of the regression channel. The bias is bearish even though for the moment there is really no potential for a trading opportunity based on our strategy and technics. The support level at 11,925 is really too close from a potential entry point. If prices were to reach 11,989, then I will be looking for a short opportunity. I will keep you updated all day long on the chat today.

EURODOLLAR
The EURUSD is building a triangle pattern in the 4-hour time frame. A triangle is a price pattern where the price moves within a narrowing price area. This triangle pattern shows indecision. The upper line of the Andrews’ Pitchfork in the daily time frame and the upward regression channel in the 4-hour time frame. The momentum is decreasing and might reverse. If prices were to break below 1.18, we will be looking for a short trade to target the following TPs : 1.1760 and 1.1632. In the 4-hour time frame the Risk Reward Ratio is not good enough, so it is advisable to enter this market in a smaller time frame, such as the 1-hour time frame. While there is no breakout, the bias is neutral.

POUND DOLLAR
Friday’s trading plan worked out perfectly well as we sold the Pound Dollar on the level at 1.3540. The market reached TP1. Yesterday, the market reached a short-term support level, so we were able to suggest a long trade with a combo setup. It could seem contradictory, but it is not as in trading all that matters are the setups and the money management. Both trades can be profitable as the stop loss and TP levels are not overlapping. We traded the Buying COMBO setup in the 2-hour time frame, and the market have reached TP1, so our position was protected, and we also closed 50% of the initial position. Now, we keep the same trading plan, we need to break below the 1.34 to reinforce our hypothesis that a swing high has indeed been validated. The stop loss can be lowered to 1.3545.

USDJPY
For the moment, is it difficult to confirm is the retracement phase is over, and so if the bearish trend, initiated at 114.7, will resume at any moment. It is advisable to wait that prices reach the levels around 113.26 – 113.41 to look for a short opportunity. It is advisable to trade the bearish COMBO setups in the 15-min time frame, as it will allow you to protect quickly your position.

AUDUSD
We were expected the AUDUSD to make a new high, and it did occur this night. TP2 is now really close to be reached, please hold the position. It is advisable to lighten up your position on the current levels at 0.7640-0.7660. The stop loss can be set at 0.7595. TP3 remains the same at 0.7733.

USDCAD
The USDCAD show an impulse in 5 sub-waves. We expect a retracement phase in 3 sub waves according to Elliott Waves theory. The trading strategy is to wait the end of the retracement phase to find a selling opportunity. In the following days, I will provide you the logical levels for the stop loss and the respective TPs.

 

[Lud Trader]

6th of December

USDOLLAR
The USDOLLAR is currently in the upper part of the regression channel and below the resistance level at 11,980. This level corresponds to the retracement level at 38.2%.
The only trading plan is to short the USDOLLAR. It is advisable to take some profit on the short position on the GBPUSD. As a reminder, we are still looking for a selling opportunity on the USD/JPY while the EURUSD is on a support level, so no short possible for the immediate future.

EURUSD
No Change for the EURUSD. There is a lack of volatility on this pair. The bearish combo given yesterday in the 1- hour time frame on the chat has reached TP1, but our position was closed to BE. Prices are currently around the support level at 1.18. The only selling opportunity will be to wait a break below the support level at 1.18, and then to wait for a pull back to give us an easy entry point.
I will be looking for a buying opportunity if prices were to break above the Andrews’s Pitchfork.

GBPUSD
Prices fail to break below the support level at 1.34 and prices are facing a buying setup (combo) in the 4-hour time frame. There is a risk for our short trades in progress. TP1 was reached but it is advisable to lighten up this position again.
If prices were to close below the support level at 1.34, then we will be looking for extra short opportunities.

USDJPY
Prices may have made a new high on the level at 113. However, it was difficult to send a trading signal for a short opportunity as the Fibonacci cluster, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100% Fibonacci expansion level, was a little but higher (113.4). The regression channel was uncertain and the resistance zone was very large.
Today’s trading plan is to trade with the berish trend thanks to combo in the 15-min time frame. If prices were to break below this retracement channel, then I will be looking for a short opportunity if a pullback occurred in the 1-hour or 4-hour time frame. But first, we need to make sure that this move is impulsive.

AUDUSD
Our position was automatically closed Break Even. No regret as TP1 and TP2 was reached. This trade was really profitable.
As a reminder, we were trading a retracement close to a low point on the channel. Prices fell to break above the resistance level at 0.762. Prices are now contained in a downward regression channel. It is not advisable to go long on the AUDUSD while prices are inside this bearish channel and below the resistance level at 0.762. If prices were to break above those resistances levels, it will make the most sense to go long after a pull back. The next selling opportunity will be given at the end of the potential following retracement phase, ideally with an entry point close to the neckline level.

USDCAD
THE USD CAD bounced off the lower line of the Andrews’s Pitchfork drawn on the graphic. Prices seems to have initiated a correction phase that might bring the price up to 1.2734. Experienced traders could attempt to take some long positions in lower time frame, with no leverage and potential combo in the 30-min time frame.
The main trading plan remains to look for selling opportunity at the end of the retracement phase, once prices reached the median line of the Andrews’ channel.

 

[Lud Trader]

7th Of December

USDOLLAR
Prices broke below its medium-term resistance level and the upper line of the channel on the 4-hour time frame. The bullish potential remains however limited as the resistance zones extends between 11,980 and 12,010. For the moment, it not safe to trade against this trend and we need to wait for a clear price action. To sum up I am bearish on the EURUSD and GBPUSD, cautious on the USDCAD and USDJPY.

EUR USD
On the 4-hour chart, Prices are below the short-term resistance level at 1.18. While prices are below the latter, i am looking for selling opportunities in short-term time frame (<H1). The TPs set at 0.1755 and 1.1629 are still valid as prices are expected to go down to the median of the Andrews’ Pitchfork in the daily chart. Most of Elliot waves analysts are bullish on the EURUSD as they are expected a reversal on the current level. An oblique line was duplicated as adjusted on the lows. It might act as a support level for the moment. The only trading plan for Today is to go down to a smaller time (15-min time frame) and sell each time there are a bearish combo setup. Be cautious as Today there is a speech from Mario Draghi at 5:00 pm (GMT+1), and it is then safer not to be in the market before this important event.

GBP USD
The bearish move is not an impulsive one. While prices are below 1.3460, I am looking for selling opportunities.
It must be emphasised that the SMA(50) in the 4-hour time frame is reversing, so it could soon gives us a nice short combo setup. Prices have to now initiate an impulsive move to confirm that the previous swing high is still valid.

USD JPY
The Technical analyses is a bit complicated on this asset. The strong Fibonacci cluster is below at 113.43, it is on this threshold that I am looking for a selling opportunity. In this case, the upper Bollinger Band will be actin as a resistance level.
Prices are currently below the SMA(50) and the 50%retracement level. They act as a resistance zone, but no bearish impulse is initiated. A bullish combo has been activated and TP1 has been reached. In other words, no more selling opportunities on the USDJPY while prices are above the SMA(50) in the 4-hour time frame. If prices were to break below it, then we will be looking for selling opportunities with a pull back as an entry reason in the following trading sessions.

AUD USD
Prices made one more push lower to test the low of the Andrews’ channel. Sellers’ pressure remains present and the current support might not hold the price enough to initiate a bullish trend move.
If prices were to retrace, then it would make the most sense to wait for the first bullish move in the 4-hour timeframe, and then enter the market at the end of a retracement phase. There is no trading opportunities for the immediate future.

USD CAD
A breakout to the downside of the range have initiated a strong bullish move. This new situation might give a nice opportunity to short the USDCAD in the upper part of the range. We need to wait for a bearish price action before to enter the market. No selling opportunities for the moment, I will keep your informed.

 

[Lud Trader]

Last Friday the NFP data came out greater than expected (228K people employed). Congress voted Thursday to pass a bill that would extend government funding by two weeks. In this way, a partial US government shutdown was avoided on Friday pending signature by the president.

EURO DOLLAR - 11th of December

Prices are approaching our main resistance cluster where prices should reverse. If prices were to reach 1.18, I will be looking for selling opportunities because prices will be in the upper part of the bearish regression channel. I am interested by the potential combo setup in the 4-hour time frame. In this case, we could have a timing where the combo matches well with the technical analyses in the same time frame.

 

[Lud Trader]

GBPJPY : A swing short opportunity to come - 08/03/2018

In the monthly time frame, the EUR/USD seems to have completed a wave 2 (green). This statement means that prices are expected to build a bearish impulsive move (wave 3 green).

In the weekly timeframe, prices seem to have built the sub-wave 1 and 2 of the expected wave 3, so the GBPJPY could be building the sub-wave 3 (orange) of a wave 3 (green). However, prices have only retraced up to 50% of the previous bearish move, so the market might go higher up to 168.33 (red rectangle).

In the daily time frame, it is difficult to know if the sub-wave 3 (blue has been completed). Prices are currently testing the upper line of a downward channel. If prices break above the trendline and the resistance level (grey line), it will make the most sense to look for buying opportunities.

To sum up, on the long-term, we are looking for an entry point to sell the GBPJPY, but in the medium-term, it makes the most sense to look for buying opportunities. However, if an opportunity to short the market comes up, a notification will be sent to all our VIP members.