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Trading Outlook – USD/CHF

Discussion in 'Jarratt Davis- Trading Signals' started by Jarratt Davis, Mar 9, 2015.

  1. Jarratt Davis

    Jarratt Davis Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Originally updated: 07:30am London time 9th March 2015

    Trading Bias: LONG

    Currency pair: USD/CHF

    Current Sentiment: Bullish

    In today’s trading session we will be focussing on buying opportunities on the USD/CHF.

    Fundamentals:

    US Labour market data was far better than expected on Friday with only average earnings ticking slightly lower, thus removing another hurdle for the Fed to tighten policy as we inch closer to a US rate hike. We can expect continued strength on the USD moving forward as the market speculation refocuses on the timing of said hike.

    News has circulated over the weekend that the Swiss National Bank might cut its deposit rate, currently from -0.75% to -1.5%, should the currency move in the “wrong direction”. We know that the SNB in conjunction with the Swiss government want to see the EUR/CHF pair at 1.10.

    Any intervention on the EUR/CHF pair would weaken the CHF across the board, in which case we want to take advantage of any softening of the CHF against the USD. USD/CHF being the safest bet as the USD is currently fundamentally strong and surrounded by positive sentiment.

    Technicals:

    We expect this pair to rally off during today’s session.

    There is strong support at 0.9815 – 0.9825 which could provide trading opportunities should the price pull back. Look for the price to bounce off this level if it retraces back to it.

    Remember to be aware of intra-day news as this can very often change the sentiment which makes our trade weaker. Look for any news that could be negative for this pair, which would change the sentiment to bearish.

    Other Market Moving News:

    Overnight AUD softened from cross-related selling against EUR and JPY, sending AUD/USD briefly below 0.7700. This followed the Chinese trade balance which showed imports fall the most since the global financial crisis.

    NZD also trades on the back-foot after New Zealand PM said the RBNZ is looking at new tools so they don’t have to tighten, ahead of Wednesday’s rate decision.

    On today’s calendar we have the Eurogroup meetings where EU Finance Ministers will discuss recently submitted Greek reforms and QE which is due to begin today.

    P.S - If you want to learn more about how I trade, check out this link below

    Forex Peace Army - Jarratt Davis


    - Jarratt Davis
    Fx trader, funds manager and Forex mentor
    www.JarattDavis.com

     
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  2. Bangla Forex Rider

    Bangla Forex Rider Private, 1st Class

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    Dear Jarat Davis

    i have a question regarding current GBP situation.
    after carney speak when market (gbp/usd) surged to 1.5550 i thought gbp was bullish.
    then data from england also good and it convinced me more.

    but gbp keep dipping lower and i was think of it as retracement.
    but gbp is now at it bottom.

    can you please explain of what is wrong in my thinking?
    if i can understand this situation well then i can prepare myself for future .

    Regards
    Shishir
     
  3. Jarratt Davis

    Jarratt Davis Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Hi Shishir,

    We can expect little blips of GBP weakness leading up to the general elections in May :)
     
  4. idimitrov

    idimitrov Sergeant

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    The dollar/franc continued its upward movement yesterday, as I expected, making a peak at 0.9453. Trade signals remain elevated, especially if the price is able to make a clear break above 0.9465 to test resistance 0.9535 - 0.9590 as part of the bullish scenario of the false breakthrough (below 0.9288). Support for the day we have at 0.9400, whose breakthrough will take the price to a neutral zone with testing at 0.9375/50. I remain neutral.
     
  5. idimitrov

    idimitrov Sergeant

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    On Friday, the US dollar moved to growth against other major currencies after the US Congress voted for an agreement on the parameters of the federal budget for the next two years, ending a short suspension of the government.
    The Swiss franc changed insignificantly: the pair USD/CHF was traded around 0.9365.
     

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