USD/CAD Daily Video, 12 October, 2015

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

We continue to form portfolio of trading setups on commodity currencies. Now is CAD turn:



The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.

 

[Nik22]

Thanks Sive

 

[Dave Hanson]

Sive, why is it that less prominent commodity nations than Canada (i.e. Australia and New Zealand) have pairs or crosses in which they are the first-named (e.g. AUD/USD and NZD/USD) but Canada doesn't have a CAD/USD, only a USD/CAD? As a result, in order to follow what you're saying, I have to reverse everything. It's not too hard to reverse in respect of this video, but in respect of your Oct. 12-16 Forex Pro Weekly there are examples where it's hard (e.g. "CFTC shows solid drop in open interest in CAD since August". Does that mean there is less interest in the Loonie, or does it mean -- as I think it does -- that there's less interest in the USD as it relates to a cross with the Loonie? Is it correct that whenever you say "CAD", you are referring to USD/CAD, not to the Canadian dollar itself. You do take pains to point out that tour references are in respect of USD/CAD (I thank you for that), but for things like COT data, does the same thing apply?

 

[Dave Hanson]

Here's another reason I get confused. In your Oct. 12-16 Forex Pro Weekly, you say that speculative long positions in CAD stand at a very low level. Then you say that, "CAD, as we know has great correlation with Crude Oil". It's the Canadian dollar (loonie), not the US dollar (greenback) that has a great correlation with Crude Oil. Thus, when I see you refer to CAD, I instinctively think you are referring to the loonie. However, I don't think you are referring to the loonie when you say speculative long positions in CAD stand at a very low level. I think in this instance you are referring to speculative long positions in the greenback as it relates to the loonie. Is there any way of making it abundantly clear what you are referring to? For example, whenever you are referring to the greenback as it relates to the loonie, can you use "USD/CAD" so there can be no confusion?

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Dave,
When I speak on charts - there you should think as USD/CAD, while COT data shows numbers for CAD directly. So, they are opposite...
Why this has happened - look in our forex military school (I do not remember exactly, but probably there should be couple of words on this sub). This is historically happened when Forex market has started to form.

 

[Dave Hanson]

Thanks, Sive. Very good answer (even I can understand), and brief, too.