WaveRider - Back to Basics - S/R, Price Action, MM, Smart Exits, One Indicator, and patience...
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WaveRider
Master Sergeant
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I'm out at +63 pips on the Cable. Good enough. This erases last week's losses plus some.
Got a USDJPY position open that is in profit about 5 pips and a USD CAD position that is in red 5 pips and I just closed it. CAD interest rate news today so I'll take my 5 pips loss and wait. This wandering up means the market will probably go up after the news.
Got a USDJPY position open that is in profit about 5 pips and a USD CAD position that is in red 5 pips and I just closed it. CAD interest rate news today so I'll take my 5 pips loss and wait. This wandering up means the market will probably go up after the news.
WaveRider
Master Sergeant
- Messages
- 350
1.30 gone for months?
Evidence
1. The 5y UK and 5y German bond yields have made a lower high and 5y US yields have made a higher high. This means $ up and EUR GBP down.
2. COT shows about as much $US longs now as there were when the EUR/USD was at 1.18. This is the biggest evidence to me.
3. The weekly chart shows us in a consolidation period at about 70% retr of the last H/L swing. This is always a prime candidate for a sell.
4. We are in the sell season. Looking at the pair's history shows a sell off at near November 1 pretty consistently for many years. The sell off happens until after the new year.
The commercial traders are accumulating shorts. I have my trend following boots on and this is my plan.
I expect at least a 1000 pip drop.
Next week should be the bearish engulfing bar.
Monday, the markets will go counter trend to fake out the street money. Tuesday through Friday, the market will trend. Friday afternoon, the market will retrace to set up for Monday fake out again.
If Monday is up, Ill sell Tuesday (or Wednesday because it doesn't happen the same every week). Risk is about 1-2%, SL is usually about 30pips take 50-70% off at 30 pips, move stop to BE and let the last 30% ride till the end of the week. Hopefully I can get the weekly bar's range. Every day Tuesday on, I'll expect some thrust down after Asia. Hopefully I can scale in during the week.
Missed today's down. Bummer. I may go further but I'm pretty sure I missed it today. If we are really about to trend, I'd expect some pull back accumulation during NY.
Evidence
1. The 5y UK and 5y German bond yields have made a lower high and 5y US yields have made a higher high. This means $ up and EUR GBP down.
2. COT shows about as much $US longs now as there were when the EUR/USD was at 1.18. This is the biggest evidence to me.
3. The weekly chart shows us in a consolidation period at about 70% retr of the last H/L swing. This is always a prime candidate for a sell.
4. We are in the sell season. Looking at the pair's history shows a sell off at near November 1 pretty consistently for many years. The sell off happens until after the new year.
The commercial traders are accumulating shorts. I have my trend following boots on and this is my plan.
I expect at least a 1000 pip drop.
Next week should be the bearish engulfing bar.
Monday, the markets will go counter trend to fake out the street money. Tuesday through Friday, the market will trend. Friday afternoon, the market will retrace to set up for Monday fake out again.
If Monday is up, Ill sell Tuesday (or Wednesday because it doesn't happen the same every week). Risk is about 1-2%, SL is usually about 30pips take 50-70% off at 30 pips, move stop to BE and let the last 30% ride till the end of the week. Hopefully I can get the weekly bar's range. Every day Tuesday on, I'll expect some thrust down after Asia. Hopefully I can scale in during the week.
Missed today's down. Bummer. I may go further but I'm pretty sure I missed it today. If we are really about to trend, I'd expect some pull back accumulation during NY.
WaveRider
Master Sergeant
- Messages
- 350
I'm short the EURUSD live with a tiny position since we were at the 70% retr of fridays range on Asia open. I expect us to go up to the WPP and I'll reenter. This will also put us at the top of a 1h channel and in the 70% retr of the last major swing H/L. Every amatuer trader can see this about to tank so the banks will have to run the market up to shake us off. This will probably make this week nearly a bearish engulfing bar. Monday Tuesday, suspect the wash and rinse, Wed -Fri we'll tank.
WaveRider
Master Sergeant
- Messages
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Bad news wins in the short term. NYC is under water and ranging the EURUSD like Asia. I think USD will slide until NY can open again to trade it up. I'm in at two small posiition that have a lot of room for flexibility 2% of acct val is still about 200 pips away. I will continue to renter short at significant levels until the sell trade context is gone. This week will likely be a green candle and I'll look to get long tomorow morning, depending on what asia is doing, but I'll take it for 20-30 pips and get out.
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WaveRider
Master Sergeant
- Messages
- 350
Fiber Analysis and bias for next week
We had a nice thrust Friday. I have 3 positions open that had pretty wide stops, as I'm still learning to trade the ranging markets. All three are in profit from 50-125 pips and I'll leave them open as the trade context remains bearish. I'm hoping to trail stops probably at 4h highs. Since I feel more comfortable trading the trending markets, I'll look to scale into the trend that I think is coming.
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Weekly bias: Down. Weekly charts looks as bearish as ever, and we are in the November sell off season. Since we have thrusted down off a very strong 4h pinbar from a major S/R, I think the down will continue at least until 1.2620, a major weekly supprt.
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Next week bias, down or doji. Last week was a doji except Friday's NFP move down. It made the expected stop runs. I don't think we're doing that this coming week. It'll be a moderate down much like last week in total or a big drop, I think. If PA breaks out of this price pivot zone, it should collapse pretty fast.
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Daily Bias:
Monday: No trading monday. Looking for London open fake out. I expect asia to trade up, away from the open cliff since asia is not really into being exposed to new H's or L's. Lond to fake down then continue up to wipe out street money who got in short at Fridays hoping that will continue. WPP is at 1.2880 confluence with a 4h trendline, 1.2900 psych level. That will possible be Mondays top target. We are at the bottom of a weekly range box or price pivot zone so we expect that to be respected at the beginning of the week, giving us a better entry. I'll be flat because I want London to show it's hand.
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Tuesday: Asia will likely range at some resistance or go down a little held by a psych level or S/R based on Friday range or last week range. London open tuesday will make the stop run above this level then come crashing down and continue down the whole week. If this happens, I hope to catch the whole weeks range down. I'll get in Tuesday morning after the stop run.
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Wednesday: If this stop run doesn't happen Tuesday, I'll look for it Wednesday and will enter Wed with the same plan as above.
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Plan for weekly down bar:In Tues short, TP partial at 30 pips, stops to BE and stay in all week until Friday at lunch.
Plan for weekly doji: The week will probably fake down on Monday and zip up til Wed or Thursday, exactly what happend last week.
I'm setting a limit sell at 1.2890. It has a lot of confluence protection and it is about the 62% of Fridays range. I don't expect Monday to go up past 1.2865-ish so we'll reexamine where we are Monday night for another limit order.
We had a nice thrust Friday. I have 3 positions open that had pretty wide stops, as I'm still learning to trade the ranging markets. All three are in profit from 50-125 pips and I'll leave them open as the trade context remains bearish. I'm hoping to trail stops probably at 4h highs. Since I feel more comfortable trading the trending markets, I'll look to scale into the trend that I think is coming.
.
Weekly bias: Down. Weekly charts looks as bearish as ever, and we are in the November sell off season. Since we have thrusted down off a very strong 4h pinbar from a major S/R, I think the down will continue at least until 1.2620, a major weekly supprt.
.
Next week bias, down or doji. Last week was a doji except Friday's NFP move down. It made the expected stop runs. I don't think we're doing that this coming week. It'll be a moderate down much like last week in total or a big drop, I think. If PA breaks out of this price pivot zone, it should collapse pretty fast.
.
Daily Bias:
Monday: No trading monday. Looking for London open fake out. I expect asia to trade up, away from the open cliff since asia is not really into being exposed to new H's or L's. Lond to fake down then continue up to wipe out street money who got in short at Fridays hoping that will continue. WPP is at 1.2880 confluence with a 4h trendline, 1.2900 psych level. That will possible be Mondays top target. We are at the bottom of a weekly range box or price pivot zone so we expect that to be respected at the beginning of the week, giving us a better entry. I'll be flat because I want London to show it's hand.
.
Tuesday: Asia will likely range at some resistance or go down a little held by a psych level or S/R based on Friday range or last week range. London open tuesday will make the stop run above this level then come crashing down and continue down the whole week. If this happens, I hope to catch the whole weeks range down. I'll get in Tuesday morning after the stop run.
.
Wednesday: If this stop run doesn't happen Tuesday, I'll look for it Wednesday and will enter Wed with the same plan as above.
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Plan for weekly down bar:In Tues short, TP partial at 30 pips, stops to BE and stay in all week until Friday at lunch.
Plan for weekly doji: The week will probably fake down on Monday and zip up til Wed or Thursday, exactly what happend last week.
I'm setting a limit sell at 1.2890. It has a lot of confluence protection and it is about the 62% of Fridays range. I don't expect Monday to go up past 1.2865-ish so we'll reexamine where we are Monday night for another limit order.
WaveRider
Master Sergeant
- Messages
- 350
My positions are about 180 pips in profit now and I resisted the urge to trade. Moved stops up. A move down today likely means a stop run tomorrow, so up, before running down more. Sive is calling it a double repo or bread and butter sell. I think we'll have rally tomorow and I'll reenter. If I'm wrong, I still am in a winning trade.
WaveRider
Master Sergeant
- Messages
- 350
Got in again short with Asia's rally at the weekly pivot point. Took partial profit at 20 pips and let the rest ride. All positions are at break even +5 or 10 pips. Will sell again if we have another rally. Total of 4 positions. 3 fiber and 1 cable. If we were in a ranging market, I would have taken profit on all of them but I think we've broken out and I'd like to capitalize on the down trend.
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PA is sitting at 1.2750 and I think we just saw a little stop run. I expect a rally today from NY but I won't be long.
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PA is sitting at 1.2750 and I think we just saw a little stop run. I expect a rally today from NY but I won't be long.
WaveRider
Master Sergeant
- Messages
- 350
Your welcome. Didn't know anyone was even reading the thread.
My weekly trading plan has been accomplished. Got in short at a high, took some profit, moved stops. I will only trade if there is another rally of 61.8 retr of yesterday's range or if London does another stop run up tomorrow morning.
The live account is up about 8% as of this morning and all positions are protected with stops. I risked no more than 2% on any trade and most positions were risking 1/2% so I'm glad of that. Ok time to do something else...
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