Forex Peace Army Education>

[dances with Forex]

I'm not a contrarian (although I'm going to sound like one); I'm a technician... and technically, I would SO be going long in GBP/CHF (if I didn't prefer another pair, in part because it pays me interest to go long, rather than charging me interest like you'll be paying to short GBP/CHF). It's not my mission to contradict Felix, but only to minimize the pain anyone might feel if GBP/CHF breaks out and goes up.

Please people, watch your @$$ like a hawk, as you always should.

That having been said... Of course, one's trading style would have bearing. I only like to go long in things that have an upside trend or, better yet, that appear to be ready to break out hard to the upside. (Reverse that for shorts). If you're a hard core day trader, you've likely done very well shorting GBP/CHF... for two days.

I'm just saying watch it please. I worry about a newer trader who gets it in their head that they know which way a trade is "supposed to go". ~Best Wishes!

[andydoc]

Originally Posted by yurps

bit late opening your email, hope we get a retrace.

Well we got the retrace, but we are still in a long term down trend from last August, with recent highs and lows giving us a trading range to establish stops and targets. I reckon a stop above 2.1027 and a target above .9362 gives a risk reward ratio now of about 400:1200, or 1:3, with an entry at ~ 2.0634. the downside of 400 with £5 per tick per lot means a potential £2000 for a full lot. In other words to risk 2% of your bank would mean 1 lot for £100000, .1 lot for £10000 or .01 lot for £1000 in your account.

Just my 10p worth!

[Carlos]

I know it is a triangle , we are inside of the triangle , What this means some say short some say long, What I am doing is waiting until we reach out side of the triangule, probably after that We will know for almost for sure wich way the Pound will take, wich I believe will be a good opportunity to make some extra Pips . I am not for sure if this triangule shall work this way, but let's see What will happen!! If it works I will say 500 Pips at least.
aither direction. Any ways I thanks MR. Felix for his guidance, he make me aware or some opportunities out there.
A have attached The 3 and 8 Hours Graphics



Carlos

[Recruit Dorell]

Well, your work is always appreciated, thanks Felix. To the newbie in this forex market: please don't load the boat, these are long term positions and will fluctuate (and also remember gbpchf will cost you some daily interests). So stay in the position with a max 1:3 leverage. Ex: you have a 10 K account, so you will open a 30K position.
Good luck

[rpaco]

Originally Posted by Felix Homogratus

Hi there

<<So what has happened, is in the month of June, GBP has actually gained value, because there were speculations of further rate hikes. You may be surprised to hear that, because it seems like GBP/USD is going down. The reason it's going down is that US dollar has gained even more value than GBP. But if you compare GBP against all the other 7 majors, and derive an average, it's actually gained around 1.06%, just in 10 days, which is a lot.

So to make the long story short, the market is currently pricing in rate hikes from the UK, which are highly unlikely, so if there is a cut in the next 3 months, it would be a big surprise, and the pound will lose a lot of value.

On the other hand, the Swiss government seems to be very happy about their interest rate of 2.75%, and the market is still pricing a possible cut by the end of the year. Regardless of it, the CHF has gained 1% in May, and already gained 1.86% in June comparing to the average of the other 7 majors.


Thanks
-Felix

>>


I do not see any way that the BoE can lower the base rate. Inflation has got a grip on the UK economy and it is spreading in to all areas of it via both direct and indirect means.
The BoE is responsible to the government for keeping the inflation rate under control, (Nice move Gordon dumping part of your responsibility on someone else, whom you can then criticise; still since he sold all our gold reserves at the very bottom of the market, maybe its better he has not got control of it ) however they have only one tool to use; like giving a chap in charge of regulating a nuclear reactor, just a sledgehammer to knock a rod in or out.

Inflation is hitting everyone here, in basic food prices some of which have risen 10-20% in the last year, due to cost of feed both for dairy farms and animals reared for meat. Fuel prices have risen hugely for farmers, even using red agricultural diesel. Transport costs have soared due to the diesel and petrol (Kerosene and Gas) prices and are now affecting ALL goods. This is just starting to filter through on to the supermarket and shop shelves.
Rice up 30% Flour up 100+++% (Asda [Wallmart] Smart price flour 15p last year now 50p although major/premium brands are only up 50%) cooking oil up 30% dairy products up 20%. So the point is that inflation is here and very visible and increasing its rate.We expect much worse to come.

We have at least two banks in trouble and offering rights issues which may help save them, but in one case the SP has fallen below the rights price. Mortgages are now hard to get with some lower paid workers totally excluded, Mortgage defaults have doubled, just as you might expect with the many rate increases of last year and fixed rate deals ending this year. It is expected that the credit crunch will (or already is) expand into consumer credit, HP deals, credit cards etc. This will affect car sales and other major purchases requiring credit.

Inflation is becoming such an issue that the BoE would look grossly irresponsible if they lowered the base rate. In fact the banks seem to have almost de-coupled from the base rate and are now offering deposit rated of up to 10% and LIBOR is around 9% such is the terror in the banking sector.

The logical thing for the BoE to do would be to raise the rate to control inflation (a vain wave of the sledgehammer near the end of the rod) but it is unlikely to happen. While a cut will be seen as furthering inflation.

Thus the above factor (UK inflation) plus the cut in the Swiss rate may moderate Felix's prediction or slow it a little.

[Lei]

Thank you Felix, it's my first time to registed in an English FOREX forum, I find this site from Google. I like the stye here, Peace Army. hehe~~

Well, I'm live in U.K. The banks are raising their interest rate, some of them promiss 10% for the customer for 1 year fix bond saving. So, I belive every raising of GBP in short time, it's a good oppetunities to open a short on GBP/CHF.

Thanks!

[Teresa]

Well, I got into this trade and got caught in news reports that sent the Euro screaming down, and the Swissy along with it. Swissy tends to follow Euro. I set a high stop loss though, and am still in, currently down $157 on 2 mini lots. We'll see if it turns around.

One question I have for Felix: What is your timeframe for this trade? You call it a June pick, but posted it on June 16th, in the middle of the month. Does that mean you expect a 2-week horizon on the trade (til July 1 or so?) I agree with the people who say that a little more info on how long to be in the trade and what kind of pip range one might expect would be helpful.

That said, thanks for the tip! We'll see if it works, but in any case, thanks for sharing.

[Amathevs]

Thanks for sharing

[Darams baba]

I just want to know where to find this calculator on the FPA?

[4xStar]

Awesome call Felix! I got some pips right away, then have been observing it to short every upward bounce .. big time payoff these last few days, ok, we are not in June anymore but without your insight I would never even have watched this pair.
Thanks!