This is Sir Pips.
If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on "play" icon. My video version is MUCH MORE detailed so I encourage you to watch it.
HI-res.:
02-04-2008.swf
Let's first review what happened earlier today.
On Friday we had UK Manufacturing PMI. It almost did out trigger but since "almost" DNE in the Forex world, it was a no trade. The signal did not work too well but eventually it GBP/USD went down. Actually it was good it was a no trade, no regrets here.
At 8:30 we had U.S. Non-Farm Payroll together with Employment Change coming out. The NFP came out -17K versus 55K expected. The Employment Rate came out a little bit better but not by 0.2. We also had conflicting revision which canceled each other out. We saw 90 pips down on USD/JPY, and it started recovering.
Then ISM Manufacturing came out very high, I don't remember if I ever seen 3.7 deviation on this indicator. Not only it came out higher, it came out positive signaling expansion instead of expected contraction. USD/JPY traded high about 50 pips, and the double top was a great place to get out.
So, on Friday we had two conflicting signals: a bad NFP and a good ISM Manufacturing.
PLEASE, WATCH THE VIDEO FOR DETAILED FRIDAY REVIEW.
On Monday we will have a few opportunities to enter a good trade.
1. Monday, February 04th, 2008 (4:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 4:45 p.m. New York time we will have New Zealand Labor Cost q/q. It is a new indicator so it is kind of hard to predict how it is going to perform. It is expected to come out at 0.9% and I would use 0.2 trigger on it. If it comes out at 1.1% or higher, I would consider buying New Zealand dollar or at least watch it. I am not sure what kind of price action we would get, I am thinking of 25 pips or so. If it comes out low at 0.7% or lower, you may want to sell New Zealand dollar, and expect 20 to 25 pips or so. Watch out for any possible conflicts with Average Earnings that are supposed to come out at 0.8% so in case of conflict just stay out. If you don't want to trade it which is very understandable, at least watch the price action and see what will happen.
2. Monday, February 04th, 2008 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 7:30 p.m. New York time we will have Australian Retail Sales. The interest statement that will be announcement a few hours later can either make this report stronger or weaker but most likely it is going to make it less important. Last month 0.3 deviation created great price actions; however, I would like to be more conservative here. I will be trading 0.4 trigger just because of that interest rate statement. Keep a closed eye on the Retail Sales X Inflation q/q that is expected to come out at 1.1% - make sure there is no conflict there. The retail sales m/m is expected at 0.6%, and it it comes out at 1.0%, I would buy AUD/USD and look for 25 to 35 pips of the price action. It if comes out at 0.2% or lower, I would sell AUD/USD and look for 25 to 35 pips of price action. Avoid conflicts there.
3. Monday, February 04th, 2008 (10:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 10:30 p.m. we will have Australian Interest Rate statement coming out. They are expected to raise rates from 6.75 to 7.00%. About 8% of economists expect them to leave the rate unchanged. If they leave the rate unchanged, it would be a sell signal on AUD/USD and AUD/JPY, and expect 50 to 70 pips of the price action. If they hike the rates to 7.00%, the reaction will mostly depend on the commentary. They should comment whether they will hike or not, so keep pay attention to it.
I hope this all does make sense. It is 3:11 a.m. here in Chicago
That's all for Monday.
If news trading seems to be very interesting for you, then I suggest you to go to
Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education and read everything about this service. It is a live trading service I provide with Felix, and I will be able to show you exactly what I am doing as I am leading hundreds of traders just like you every day with very clear strategies on when to get in and get out. As people are following my trades, they are learning how to trade the news, feel comfortable with trading and make good profits. We offer 21 days free trial so you can just try it and see how you like it.
Thank you very much, and good luck with your trades.
To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot
The video with the signal is recorded by Sir Pipsalot.
For your convenience, this text is written based on the video by Crazy Cat
Forex Trading Signal 02/04/08 -
02-04-2008, 10:25 AM
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