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[Crazy Cat]

Hey folks,

Sorry, no video signal tonight. I have family in town that came in late and don't have time to do one tonight; however, I will type up a text signal for you all.

Yesterday UK Nationwide House prices came in a bit low, but not low enough to trigger a sell. Core Durable Goods and New Home Sales also came in fairly close to expectations, so they didn't provide much action either.

There are 2 trades worth looking at today:

0330 Swedish GDP q/q (-1.6% expected) - Norway GDP made a huge 1000 pip move on a big deviation last week, so Swedish GDP may do the same.
If it comes out at -0.9% or higher, look for USD/SEK or EUR/SEK to sell off by 400-500 pips or more.
If it comes out at -2.3% or lower, look for USD/SEK or EUR/SEK to sell off by 400-500 pips or more.

0830 US GDP Annualized q/q (Prelim) (-5.4% expected) Economists are expecting a small rise from the advanced reading of -5.5% we got last month. I have a feeling we're going to see some form of a wild deviation, but I'm not sure which way.
If it comes out at -6.0% or lower, look for USD/JPY to sell off by 20-40 pips within the first few minutes
If it comes out at -4.9% or higher, look for USD/JPY to rally by 20-40 pips within the first few minutes.

Chicago PMI and U of Mich Consumer Confidence figures have fallen off the wagon now though and just really aren't worth trading anymore in my opinion.

As far as the EUR/USD is concerned, it continues to consolidate sideways within the channel on the 3 hour chart I showed in yesterday's video. Odds still technically favor a rally off of support here to new highs above 1.3000, but a decent break through 1.2650 could definitely change the story and send us much lower on the Euro. A lot depends on the equity markets right now. The S&P closed right near its session lows right on swing low support around 750 and really could go either way on Friday. A rally for the day would definitely help EUR/USD to the upside, while a sell off could cause EUR/USD to break support, or at least hold it back some. No matter how the short term on stocks play out though, we're still well poised to see new lows over the next few weeks on the S&P into the low 700's (712 seems like potential support) and quite possibly reaching into the 600's to hit my target of 650.

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