Forex Peace Army Education>

[Crazy Cat]

Hey folks,

Here is the video:
03-02-2009.swf

Friday's news worked out great. SEK GDP came in very low, and despite a conflict with Retail Sales, it managed to rally up 700 pips from prerelease (we grabbed about 400 of it in the diamonds room). US GDP also came in very low and gave a decent short on USD/JPY good for up to 40 pips, and we managed to get about 20 of it.

For Monday, there's a whopping 4 trades worth watching:

0830 US Personal Income (-0.2 expected) and Personal Spending (0.4% expected) - These are the two numbers coming out at 0830 that should dominate the headlines IF they have a nice deviation... but we haven't seen that in awhile.
If they BOTH come out 0.5% above expectations or either comes out 1.0% above, it should be a good long on EUR/JPY good for 40-50 pips.
If they BOTH come out 0.5% below expectations or either comes out 1.0% below, it should be a good short on USD/JPY good for 30-40 pips.

1000 US ISM Manufacturing (34 expected) - This was a solid, slow, steady trade last month and should be a good performer this month.
If it comes out at 36 or higher, it should be a good long on EUR/JPY good for 40 pips up.
If it comes out at 32 or lower, it should be a good short on EUR/JPY good for 40 pips down.

1930 AU Retail Sales m/m s.a. (-0.5% expected) - Hit or miss sometimes, but should be good for a quick 20 pips. I wouldn't hold it for more than 15 minutes since eyes will shift quickly towards interest rates later.
If it comes out at +0.5% or higher, it should be a good long on AUD/USD good for 20-30 pips.
If it comes out at -1.5% or lower, it should be a good short on AUD/USD good for 20-30 pips.

2230 AU Interest Rates (0.25% cut to 3.00% expected) - Bigger cuts should be bullish, and no cut should be bearish.
If it comes out at 3.25% or higher, AUD/USD should head higher for 40-50 pips.
If it comes out at 2.75% or lower, AUD/USD should head lower for 40-50 pips downwards.

The EUR/USD has been a bit baffling refusing to work higher and flirting with more major support levels. I think it could go either way from here, so I'm into more of a neutral bias until the Euro figures out where it wants to go.

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To our success,
Sir Pipsalot

[schulisch]

Hello.

I'm a little confused why you would expect the EUR to change relative to the JPY, as a result of US economic figures.

"1000 US ISM Manufacturing (34 expected) - This was a solid, slow, steady trade last month and should be a good performer this month.
If it comes out at 36 or higher, it should be a good long on EUR/JPY good for 40 pips up.
If it comes out at 32 or lower, it should be a good short on EUR/JPY good for 40 pips down."

Please explain, I have never come across a similar statement?

[ChrisEccles]

Originally Posted by schulisch

Hello.

I'm a little confused why you would expect the EUR to change relative to the JPY, as a result of US economic figures.

Please explain, I have never come across a similar statement?

I was fazed by that, a little, too. However (shoot this down in flames if I'm
talking out my rear end, lads), even as a rookie I can see that trading the
indirect result of US news on other pairs might allow one both time to see
how the trend establishes, and also the freedom to place trades which one's
broker might not be looking to slip you on by a few tens of pips if there's a
humungous candle after the FA.
-
The USD/JPY would undoubtedly move on the ISM (and did ! ! !), and so
would (did) the EUR/USD pair. The cumulative effect could be seen on
the common pair, EUR/JPY. (I didn't trade this, not because I doubt the
word of Sir Pips, but because I was babysitting the EUR/GBP in which I
had a few meagre lots riding)
-
This forum is cool, as are the trading signals.

-
Chris

[Akintunde]

i registered for 2weeks trial in the DIAMONDS ROOM,after my payment i discovered that my acount which is supposed to last till 9th of march has suddenly expired.

my transaction ID is 907603172
Auth Code is 417529

Please do rectify this.
Akintunde..

[Cesil]

Agreed, take a look at GBP/NZD as to see how non-direct news (in this case from the US & goings on in equity markets) can drive other pairs. Provides good opportunities though!!

[Wizeman]

I'm a little confuse how to understand this signal from Sir Sipsalot, talking about bullish on AU/USD if bigger cuts but if 2.75% or lower lower trend? Is it a typing mistake?

2230 AU Interest Rates (0.25% cut to 3.00% expected) - Bigger cuts should be bullish, and no cut should be bearish.
If it comes out at 3.25% or higher, AUD/USD should head higher for 40-50 pips.
If it comes out at 2.75% or lower, AUD/USD should head lower for 40-50 pips downwards

[ChrisEccles]

Originally Posted by Wizeman

I'm a little confuse how to understand this signal from Sir Sipsalot, talking about bullish on AU/USD if bigger cuts but if 2.75% or lower lower trend? Is it a typing mistake?

If the Aussies had CUT their rates, it would have signalled that the RBA
viewed Australia's position as tending to slide into line with the other
declining G10 economies, and would have spelled bad news for the AUD in
any pair, methinks. A 0.25% slash might have given you 100+pips short !
-
The decision to leave it as it is was what bulled AUD quite nicely and so
Sir Pips was correct, even if he underestimated the magnitude of the eventual
movement :-)

"If it comes out at 3.25% or higher, AUD/USD should head higher for 40-50 pips.
If it comes out at 2.75% or lower, AUD/USD should head lower for 40-50 pips downwards"

Here is my chart EUR/AUD from just after midnight yesterday (GMT):


-
Chris