Forex Trading Signal 03/04/09

Crazy Cat · (#1 (**permalink**))

Hey folks,

Here is the video:
03-04-2009.swf

Yesterday's news was interesting. CAD Int came in as expected, albeit on the low end, and we saw a USD/CAD rally. This may mean it's back to low rates being bad news and higher rates being good news in other countries as well. US Pending Home Sales was a big dud giving some downside, but not much. AUD GDP was a huge mover though on a blockbuster deviation sending AUD/USD down 50 pips in the first minute and down another 40 in the first 25. As I write this, it seems to be holding the 6330 to 6340 level and may be a good short from around here.

For tomorrow:

0428 or 0430 UK Services PMI m/m (-41.9 expected) - Disappointing action last month probably due to it coming out 2 minutes early, which it will probably do again this month. Keeping wider triggers just in case.
If it comes out at -43.5 or lower, GBP/USD should fall by about 40 pips.
If it comes out at -40.5 or higher, GBP/USD should rise by about 40 pips.

0815 US ADP Employment Change (-630K expected) - This number has had some big trades, but I'm not so sure we're set up as close to an inflection point as we were 2 months ago. Still I expect some nice price action here. You can try trading tighter triggers and squeezing more out of a smaller move, but these triggers should be safe levels to work with.
If it comes out at -730K or lower, USD/JPY should fall by 30-40 pips in the first 15 minutes.
If it comes out at -520K or higher, USD/JPY should rise by 30-40 pips in the first 15 minutes.
EUR/JPY could very well be a good alternative pair and may see better moves over the course of an hour.

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