Forex Trading Signal 03/24/09

Crazy Cat · (#1 (**permalink**))

Hey folks,

Here is the link:
03-24-2009.swf

Yesterday's Existing Home Sales produced some nice profitable action whether you held it for a bit or held out for a larger rally on the EUR/JPY, so some reassuring action there even if I expected a larger move a bit faster. Geitner's plan which had the media and stocks swooning I believe really has a lot of holes and potential problems, and even if it works great, it won't hit the market for many months... so I expect a lot of this Geitner plan euphoria to fizzle out and reverse stocks lower and maybe give the EUR/USD and EUR/JPY a good chance to sell off sharply. I'm still biased towards long term EUR/USD weakness, so I think these elevated levels are an excellent place to look for shorts. The Fed's action last week is already losing major steam in the Treasury markets, and this could possibly spread towards USD strength either today or sometime in the near future. My EUR/USD short bias is not without risk... I could definitely be wrong, no doubt; however, if I'm right, the potential rewards far outweigh the risk and it's worth taking a closer look at. I go into a lot of detail on this and other things on the video, so take a look. Stocks I forgot to put in early, so I brought them up at the end. For tomorrow's economic news, there's only one item:

0530 EST - UK CPI y/y headline (2.6% expected) - If this comes out a bit higher (but not too high) it's definitely worth a long since that lowers deflationary fears. If it comes out low, it should be a nice sell as those deflationary fears get a big bump.
If it comes out betweeen 2.7% and 3.0%, GBP/USD should rise by at least 30 pips and potentially more like 50+ if the pair is positioned well.
If it comes out 2.5% or lower, GBP/USD should sell off by at least 30 pips and potentially more like 50+ if the pair is positioned well for a sell.

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ChrisEccles · (#2 (**permalink**))

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crazy Cat

I'm still biased towards long term EUR/USD weakness, so I think these elevated levels are an excellent place to look for shorts.

Amen to that.

-
Chris

juan rosa · (#3 (**permalink**))

I will be looking out for this, thankyou.

MGB · (#4 (**permalink**))

Dear Pipsalot,

As a newcomer and still learner in fx I really appreciate your analysis and insights and also the great work the fpa is doing to protect and inform us. If I had a request at all for slow wits like me, I wonder if you could be kind enough to explain technical jargon when you use it in your video. My other question is probably not related to your signals but as whether platforms that make the trader invisible to brokers (e.g.. fxspyder) are anygood.

Thanks again for your great work.

MGB