Forex Trading Signal 04/01/09

Crazy Cat · (#1 (**permalink**))

Hey Folks,

Here is the video:
04-01-2009.swf

Yesterday saw a bit of recovery from Monday's selloffs, but the trend remains down and rallies should be shorted for now on the EUR/USD and Gold. The stock market situation is a bit more tricky, so watch the video for more info, but suffice to say we're looking for a bit further of a selloff into stronger support, then a potentially large rally. Timing these perfectly is tough, but the swings are large enough where I think the best way I can trade these markets is with position trades scaling in and out with an overall bias, which is why my signals have shifted from more scalping advice to position trading and market direction advice. Yesterday, we saw the Japanese Tankan make a nice 50 pip move higher on the yen crosses when the number came in at decade lows, so I like the idea of looking to trade this number next month. AU Retail Sales got overshadowed by some back and forth rumormongering about the Obama administration and GM, but still managed about a 30 pip move with somewhat healthy retrace/reattempt type price action following the release. For Wednesday:

0815 US ADP Employment Change (-663K expected) - I would expect a good move on either EUR/USD or EUR/JPY on this one.
If it comes out at -599K or higher, I expect EUR/USD to rise 35-50 pips
If it comes out at -730K or lower, I expect EUR/USD to fall 35-50 pips

1000 US ISM Manufacturing (-36.0 expected) - I just noticed after recording the video that the consensus is really -36, not -35.8 as shown on forexfactory, so these triggers below are slightly different from what I chose in the video:
If it comes out at -34.5 or higher, EUR/JPY should gain 40-50 pips (watch stocks to make sure they follow and help out)
If it comes out at -37.5 or lower, EUR/JPY should fall 40-50 pips (watch stocks to make sure they follow and help out)
Look out for Pending Home Sales as well... anything -3% or lower should be bearish, and +3% or higher should be bullish, so don't trade EUR/JPY on this if the two conflict heavily.

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