Forex Trading Signal 04/14/09

Crazy Cat · (#1 (**permalink**))

Hey Folks,

Here is the video:
04-14-2009.swf

Monday saw continued risk appetites pulling stocks higher and USD lower as earnings continue to outperform and the market is now anticipating an optimistic speech from President Obama tomorrow at 1130 EST. I think as of right now, a continuation trade towards USD short is appropriate, but with Eurozone economic pessimism right now, I'd prefer the GBP/USD or the AUD/USD as pure risk appetite plays over the EUR/USD. Please watch the video for a closer look at this. Stocks seem to be rallying within a channel and may have topped out today, but could make another run for the channel top assuming this risk appetite continues. Stocks can really be played long or short if you're positioning yourself well due to anticipated volatility. Gold looks like it wants to recover to the 925 to 932 level before falling hard again, but most of its bounce so far has been on light volume, so we may see it turn around sooner rather than later as the mood is turning bearish on gold. For news on Tuesday April 14th:

0830 US Retail Sales X Autos (0.0% expected) - Make sure the headline retail sales comes out in the same direction, otherwise I'd stay out.
If it comes out at 0.8% or higher, EUR/JPY should gain 40 pips quickly, and potentially more soon after.
If it comes out at -0.8% or lower, EUR/JPY should lose 40 pips quickly, and potentially more soon after.
Keep in mind the PPI numbers are coming out at the same time. As expected or a bit higher may add some buying pressure, while lower than expected numbers there might put on a bit of selling pressure. The Retail Sales numbers should take precedent, but the PPI numbers could either mute or exacerbate a move.

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ChrisEccles · (#2 (**permalink**))

Whilst I agree with the overall view on the news, today, I would
urge caution if considering long the EUR pairs !
-
The ECB have schemes up their sleeve which, whilst as yet unannounced
with any specificity in terms of intervention actions, may well have the
effect that the Swiss CB's binge had on CHF a few weeks back.
I think it fair to say that the major commerce forces in Europe that are
suffering currently (Germany, France, Italy) would love to see EUR/GBP
sitting around 0.8000 and EUR/USD likewise devalued.
-
I'm not knocking Sir Pips' assessments, just offering a view from across
the pond, where we have a stronger focus on the medium-term behaviour
of EUR pairs than maybe do all you Dollar afficionados !
-
Chris