Forex Trading Signal 04/22/09

Crazy Cat · (#1 (**permalink**))

Hey folks,

I put a pretty comprehensive review of our biases and outlooks into the video, so please watch it for a full update since there wasn't video the last two days. Simply put, the EU and GU had some consolidation/retracement today, and may consolidate or retrace more (50-50 odds) but any rallys should be seen as shorting opportunities. On the one side we may sell straight off from here, on the other side, we might rally more and top out to start to set a downwards channel that will trade lower over time... we'll see which develops this week. Gold is trying to mount a rally on the selloff in stocks and risk aversion, but that rally is likely to fail at some point soon due to sentiment deterioration and technical selling pressure. Like I said yesterday, stocks (S&P 500) have broken that stiff upwards trendline from the march lows, so it's game on for more downside into the 750-800 range over the next 1-2 weeks despite today's relief rally. Shorter term is kind of a tougher call to say how it will sell off and when. There's certainly good potential for it to sell off from here in the 840's though thanks to today's retracement, so I'm on a shorter term short in addition to my position trade just in case. Yesterday's news saw UK CPI come out too close to give the market a big enough jolt, and German ZEW came out higher, but not high enough to buy safely. CAD's interest rate cut was a clear buying opportunity like as we anticipated with yesterday's signal, and the diamonds room snagged a nice 54 pips off of it after the release. For Wednesday, there's one two things to look out for:

0430 UK Claimant Count Change (116K expected) - I discuss a detailed strategy and outlook for this towards the end of the video, so take a look. Look out for conflicts with the Unemployment and Clamaint Count Rates as well.
If it comes out at 131K or higher, GBP/USD should fall 40 pips or more
If it comes out at 99K or lower, GBP/USD should rise by 40 pips or more

Also at 07:30 EST, the UK will have their Annual Budget release which will have a serious jarring effect on the GBP/USD. I'd just be careful and look for clear language for opportunities, but regardless, expect a lot of volatility leading up to and following this event.

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