Forex Trading Signal 05/01/09

Crazy Cat · (#1 (**permalink**))

Hey folks,

Here is the video:
05-01-2009.swf

Thursday we saw what I think was one final blowout rally in several markets that I feel may lead to some continuation declines sometime soon. We saw this happen on both the EUR/USD and stocks. Stocks are continuing to channel and I like holding short for a run to the bottom of that channel and eventual break lower (see the video). The EUR/USD double topped nicely, but it has stretched it's upper channel boundary repeatedly, so our bias is still short from here, but I'd quickly shift bias neutral if we see more rallies to new highs. Gold looks well positioned for further declines as well although a short term rally to 900 is possible especially if stocks sell off tomorrow. News we watched closely yesterday all came out too close to expected. For Friday:

1000 US ISM Manufacturing Index (38.4 expected) - I think we need to hold out for 2.1-2.2 deviation to expect much out of this one... two months ago a smaller deviation wasn't enough for a great trade.
If it comes out at 40.5 or higher, EUR/USD should rally by 40 pips
If it comes out at 36.2 or lower, EUR/USD should sell off by 40 pips

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plind · (#2 (**permalink**))

If higher number is good for USD (Forex Factory calendar) should not your signal say if 40.5 or higher short EUR/USD, if 36.2 or lower long EUR/USD? Movement maybe 40 pips?

Mark Harding · (#3 (**permalink**))

Thanks Sir Pipsalot

kasim ijelu · (#4 (**permalink**))

Hello Sir Pipsalot. Being follow you mail just recently great work... I would like to get you thoughts on this trading week with

The euro, British pound, and Australian dollar that will be encountering rate decisions from the European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Reserve Bank of Australia this coming week, but only one is expected to reduce rates. and and also the Canadian dollar that will see their own employment figures coming out???

Kaism Ijelu

Thank you

kasim ijelu · (#5 (**permalink**))

Would like to question the ISM report shouldn't it be the other way around if the result are good .......just a little confused

Cheers!!