Forex Trading Signal 05/15/09

Crazy Cat · (#1 (**permalink**))

Hey Folks,

Well, we got that bounce we thought might happen across the board on equities, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, etc. and as I said yesterday, this bounce is a great opportunity to short all of these respective pairs in my opinion. There is still the possibility that daily chart upwards momentum takes us to new highs, but I feel that is a much smaller possibility than significant downwards price movement. Any decent break of the lows on these pairs will signal more downside momentum, but with all of them so near some consolidation highs, I think it's a decent time to get short on those currencies, but keep in mind that we do have the potential of another push higher before downside resumption. Yesterday's 0830 news was mixed so there was no clear signal there. For Friday:

0200 German GDP s.a. q/q (-3.0% expected) - This should be good for a 40-50 pip move on EUR/USD if there's a good surprise, but it may not be a big enough of a concern to reverse the trend, so I'd look to book quicker profits on a counter trend move and milk it longer on a move along with the trend.
If it comes out at -2.8% or higher, EUR/USD and EUR/JPY should rise by 40-50 pips.
If it comes out at -3.2% or lower, EUR/USD and EUR/JPY should fall by 40-50 pips.

0830 US CPI Core m/m (0.1% expected) - This should create a broad based USD move similar to what we saw last month, but I would only trade it if both the Core and the Headline numbers come out in the same direction. If there's a conflict like there was last month, I'd prefer to stay out.
If it comes out at 0.2% or higher, EUR/USD should fall by 30-40 pips.
If it comes out at 0.0% or lower, USD/JPY should fall by 30-40 pips.

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GDS · (#2 (**permalink**))

Thank you Mr. Pips.

NATAN SHAIN · (#3 (**permalink**))

i dont understand what to do
when it comes low 0.1 or high 0.1
in the charts its look like differnet from what you say today

TheMan · (#4 (**permalink**))

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