Forex Trading Signal 05/28/09

Crazy Cat · (#1 (**permalink**))

Hey Folks,

No video signal tonight, just a text signal since there's no news today (Thursday) reliably worth trading. Tuesday saw a wicked bear market rally that somewhat predictably sold off eventually on Wednesday. With our short or risk aversion bias, the rally was a great opportunity to get short on stocks at a nice price and consider looking for risk aversion sells in XXX/USD and XXX/JPY pairs; however, as we have seen in the last 1-2 weeks, risk aversion does not translate into clear USD and JPY strength the same way it used to. We're seeing some clear shifts into more of a USD driven market, and I think with some of the soveriegn downgrade fears subsiding, and some nice lower low/lower high action on the EUR/USD, I think we can continue to look to sell EUR/USD and GBP/USD on rallies and milk it short, but I'd refrain from chasing it after a good selloff like we've seen.

Stocks should encounter further weakness, but have been channel trading, so the key level to watch as I've been saying is 875 on the front month futures. Once that level goes we should see further confirmation and accelleration.

Gold continues to channel trade as well, so short term buys below 950 and longer term sells above 960 make sense there. The news items coming out Thursday are small and may provide some direction on big surprises, but the odds are not terribly good we'll see tradable price action. I'd prefer to skip them and hold out for better opportunities.

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zarni · (#2 (**permalink**))

long term sell on gold? you must be out of your mind.
gold is breaking out. considering you were wrong on your previous long term gold short bias why don't you change your strategy?

blackwidowfx · (#3 (**permalink**))

Posted on May26
Short EURUSD was closed with 150 pips profit at 1.3800
Short Gold at 952 did not reach yet target at 940 still holding

Put pending order to short GBPUSD at 1.5845 Stop loss 1.6095 target 1.5575 and 1.55 and 1.5450

TheMan · (#4 (**permalink**))

things are getting choppy the past few sessions.

Sir Pipsalot · (#5 (**permalink**))

Quote:

Originally Posted by zarni

long term sell on gold? you must be out of your mind.
gold is breaking out. considering you were wrong on your previous long term gold short bias why don't you change your strategy?

This is the kind of herd mentality that leads to peaks of optimism at peaks in the market. When 90-95% of market participants are bullish on anything that trades in 2 directions, contrary to what you might think, that usually means a very significant top is coming soon.

I'm continuing my long term short bias on gold from February which has performed well. We had a 100+ dollar selloff, followed by a retracement back to around where we initiated entry 4 months ago. Sometimes long term trades do this, but that doesn't mean you change your mind. Becoming bullish (especially long term) just because something is rallying or has rallied is wrong more often than it is right. As you can see, it is working well again so far, but it still needs to breach that 940 level to give full confirmation.