Forex Trading Signal 05/29/09

Crazy Cat · (#1 (**permalink**))

Hey folks,

Here is the video:
05-29-2009.swf

I was a bit late getting out the signal tonight with the 2am news, and Germany had a lackluster report without much of a surprise, but UK Nationwide beat expectations by a dramatic 2+%, so EUR/GBP is a great short here at 0.8738 in my opinion as I write this.

There hasn't been a lot of big economic number news, but the markets have see-sawed a bit with alternating risk aversion and appetite, and I think we're setting up for a bit more of a rally on the EUR/USD and stocks, but I'm using it to position short near resistance as shown in the video. Gold I'm still positioning short here between 960-975 as a position trade and a medium term swing, but I'm keeping a cautious eye on silver here around the 15.25 level as a more significant break higher could cause a lot more buying momentum and make it tough for gold to top out anytime soon, so I'll let you know how that picture is looking better early next week. For Friday news:

0330 Swedish GDP q/q (-2.7% expected)
If it comes out at -1.7% or higher, EUR/SEK should sell off by 400-800 pips
If it comes out at -3.7% or lower, EUR/SEK should rally be 400-800 pips

0830 US GDP Annualized Preliminary revision (-5.5% expected) - It's hard to say exactly which pair will work best on this one... it's unclear whether we'll see a unified USD move off of a surprise, or a typical JPY cross risk aversion move. I'm going to lean towards trading EUR/JPY though.
If it comes out at -4.9% or higher, EUR/JPY should rally 40+ pips
If it comes out at -6.1% or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off by 40+ pips

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