Forex Trading Signal 06/19/09

Crazy Cat · (#1 (**permalink**))

Hey folks,

UK Retail Sales Thursday was a doozie... massive downmove on the nice negative deviation with a fairly steady pattern, so if you got in somewhere, chances are you made something on it. CAD Core CPI came out somewhat high but produced a bit of whipsawish price action, so I think it was a good one to skip. In the broader markets, USD pairs continue to consolidate and the S&P did manage a bounce up above 920 like I mentioned yesterday. Friday, we might see one more bounce to 930, but I don't see it heading a whole lot higher, and we might have topped out around 922... so for shorter term trades I'd recommend either shorting now, shorting on a rally to 930, or both. Similarly, if such a situation leads to short term strength in the EUR/USD or GBP/USD, that should provide a great shorting opportunity as the next downleg over the next week should easily push well through the lows of this week on both pairs. For Friday's news:

0830 CAD Retail Sales headline (expected at -0.1%) - This indicator has been seeing a lot of fake out short moves in recent months on smaller deviations so I recommend playing it safe and staying out of this one unless we get a larger surprise near 1.0%. If it has a smaller deviation 0.2-0.6%, it might be worth trading against the spike a bit as these smaller signals have provided quick turnarounds the last few months.
If it comes out at 1% or higher, USD/CAD should fall 40 pips
If it comes out at -1% or lower, USD/CAD should rally 40 pips

I'm enjoying my time in Florida so far, thanks for the well wishes. I'll be back at my trading desk in New York on Sunday, so I'll greet you all with a fresh video signal that night.

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dph · (#2 (**permalink**))

what timezone are you using in your posts?
gmt?

Sir Pipsalot · (#3 (**permalink**))

Time zone is EST, Eastern Standard time which is GMT-5 I think.