The EU and
GU have inched higher breaking some resistance and at or near tipping point resistance, and our bias is quickly shifting from
bearish to neutral. My advice is to hold onto to any position trades short, or maybe even speculate with tighter SL sells near the key resistances at 1.6670 and 1.4120/77, but not to hold on past a clear break through those levels. The picture for stocks and the USD continues to appear muddy, as the increasing likelihood for new highs in stocks or lows in the USD before a major turnaround makes the short to medium term forecast very tough at this point. There are a lot of mixed signals in stocks as many of the averages on Monday were disjointed with some making new
swing highs, others not, and all of this on suspiciously low volume. The chances of a nice stock decline from here are still somewhat healthy, but a myriad of alternative possibilities makes the situation tricky as well. I guess I'm advocating a continuation of the wait-and-see approach from Monday. For news Tuesday:
0200 UK Nationwide House Prices m/m (-0.5% expected) - You guys might not get this signal notification in time, and for that I apologize, day this report gets released is always uncertain until the last minute.
If it comes out at 0.5% or higher, GBP/JPY should gain 50 pips.
If it comes out at -1.5% or lower, GBP/JPY should fall 50 pips.
0430 UK
GDP final
q/q (-2.1% expected) - This is the least important of the 3 GDP releases, but should still carry some weight. In March a 0.1
deviation did well here, so we'll look for the same.
If it comes out at -2.0% or higher, GBP/USD should rally 30-50 pips.
If it comes out at -2.2% or lower, GBP/USD should fall 30-50 pips.
1000 US Conference Board Consumer Confidence (55.3 expected) - This indicator has been very hit or miss lately either inciting big moves or getting relatively ignored. It should definitely be worth trading, but don't hold on too long if it isn't looking good.
If it comes out at 60 or higher, EUR/JPY should rally 50 pips.
If it comes out at 50 or lower, EUR/JPY should fall 50 pips.
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Forex Trading Signal 06/30/09 -
06-30-2009, 06:42 AM
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