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  1. #21
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Posts
    8

    Default

    Wow. People pay big bucks for commentary like this.

    Thank you so much for making your thoughts available to us. And thanks also to Felix for making this possible.

    Amazing analysis. Amazing. Thank you.
     

  2. #22
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Panama
    Posts
    6

    Default One word and one sentence

    One word: Excellent!!!!!!!
    One sentence: Many thanks indeed Felix for bringing this high caliber to give his outstanding and clearly written input to the community, and many thanks G-2 for accepting Felix's invitation, and for sharing your knowledge without any payment from our side.

    An additional comment: Felix, you have been demonstrating being a walker, not a talker.
     

  3. #23
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    IL. USA
    Posts
    11

    Default

    Thanks G2, and Felix this is top shelf stuff.
     

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Posts
    6

    Default

    Thank you very much G2, your efforts are very much appreciated.
     

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    19

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Gilgamesh View Post
    I guess I must be more dense than most here. I could hardly understand a single sentence of that very abstruse pice of writing, but I am glad to know that some others found it informative. I don't know what "risk aversion" means (not wanting to risk anything perhaps? Is that reasonable in forex trading?), nor commodity currencies, nor a whole lot of other factors mentioned here. I just don't have the intellectual ability to take in all that, it's simply confusing to me. I'll just stick to technical analysis; I know well that it's quite possible to make profits on forex without any knowledge of these economic factors.

    Far more important to me are money management, emotional control, making a plan and following it. If I look after that, I profit; if not, I lose.
    So you are willing to take a a gun into battle without any bullets. Is that what you are saying?

    Wouldn't it be prudent to arm yourself with every advantage possible?

    Maybe you are going to be part of the 2% that actually make money on the exchange....

    What do you think your chances are?
     


  6. #26
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Posts
    1

    Default

    This is really interesting stuff, thank you for sharing with us.
     

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Posts
    6

    Default time frame

    Thanks Felix and G2 for your work (and to share it with us)!
    Any idea when G2 will post the next chapter (monthly, weekly or when things changes or ...)?
    Very interested in mid term (buy/sell) levels and important support and resistant levels you use!
    Thanks again!
    Denis
     

  8. #28
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Posts
    4

    Default Thank you

    Thanks Felix, I had hard time to fined your email since I have to-many a day but finally I get it.
    Great information from G2 I will have to read over again couple of times to understand well.
    I appreciate what you trying to do for us.
    Regards
    pips4all
     

  9. #29
    Giant #2 is offline Former Special Consultant to the FPA
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    17

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Simonr View Post
    I am staggered you say you'll be selling JPY and buying "risky" currencies (AUD) in bouts of risk aversion.

    Surely you have this the wrong way around? JPY is still the dominant funding currency for carry trade, note how even USDJPY weakens during risk off periods, despite the Japanese economy's very weak fundamentals (even relative to the US).

    AUDJPY is the purest carry trade pair amongst the developed market currencies and is thus an excellent barometer of risk sentiment. It has shared a very close correlation with SPX over the past 12 or so months.

    JPY is to be BOUGHT in risk off and SOLD on risk on, and it will remain so until the last carry trader has been carried out on a stretcher.

    Watch for SPX to break below 1030 (AUDUSD < 0.83, ASX200 < 4400, Oil < $72, 10yr UST yields < 3%). If these inflection points are broken, markets will be implying that global reflation efforts have failed, thus pricing in a very deflationary outcome for the world.

    If these points are broken expect 1) dramatic risk-off 2) double-dip recession 3) flight to safety. USD and JPY will both rally strongly in this environment but JPY will outperform USD at least for the first few weeks as Yen loans are repaid in rapid fashion.

    Cheers
    Simon
    Hi Simon. Perhaps i'm misunderstood.
    During bouts of risk aversion... The market moves capital out of risk assets i.e. AUD and back into funding currency (JPY) to pay back loans. So AUDJPY cross falls. When AUDJPY falls during bouts of risk aversion, we become buyers as the cross is supported by yield spread. We have a multitude of strategies to do this. More on this in future posts. G2
     

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    2

    Default

    This is excellent information. It is important to understand how the institutions think, as they are our competitors.
     

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