Well, it’s few that could be added on the monthly chart to previous analysis. Market continues retracement after hitting 0.618 extension at 0.618 . So, I mostly hold previous analysis intact.
Price action during previous week was in the same range of monthly bar – we just see some pullback from month’s low. The major interest here, as previously, stands with price behavior around Agreement from one side and K- area from the other. After hitting of 0.618 extension target and Agreement market has shown retracement to 1.3509-1.3709 that is solid K- at monthly chart and typically, price should not break it after just hitting of 0.618 target. Otherwise, it will be a strong sign that market sentiment has changed and bears’ power falls under question
Still, as we’ve mentioned previously there is a possibility of AB=CD retracement on lower time frames. In this case market could show a bit deeper move inside of K- . Although this is not significant for monthly , it could become very important for us, since we mostly trade at daily charts.
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Currently there are no significant changes on monthly time frame. All that we’ve said previously still in place.
I intentionally leave the same chart with the same markings as on previous week. Weekly trend holds bullish. Recall that major question on previous week was - will AB-CD retracement happen or not?
Current price action tells us that this indeed could happen, and probably this CD move has started already. Still I would like to get some more confirmation from daily time frame. Weekly period is rather extended, so this move up could last 2-3 weeks and if we even will miss some entry at hot point, we will be more than just happy if we will enter a bit later but this entry point will be safer.
So, if we will get confirmation on daily time frame, then we have two potential targets. First one comes at retesting of K-resistance 1.3509-1.3627 level. This target is 0.618 extension at 1.3530 level and creates an Agreement with K-area. Also pay attention that this target stands higher than tops of bearish engulfing, so if market will start move up – this high will not hold. Don’t place stops just above it! By the way, here monthly pivot resistance 1 stands also – 1.3548.
Next and major target of this potential retracement also creates an Agreement with weekly Fib resistance level at 1.3814-1.3858.
Finally we can say, that this overall picture creates a bullish context for daily time frame, price action with this AB=CD is quite logical – initial AB swing then AB=CD retracement to 50% support that gives us “222” Buy pattern. Currently all looks more or less clear.
Although monthly and weekly analysis holds almost the same, now we’re passing to most interesting stuff. In the beginning I would like to share with some educational moments that could be extremely useful. In fact, here you see nothing but perfect example of DiNapoli “Minesweeper” entry technique. This also explains why I suppose that upward move has a lot chances to continue. So, how does minesweeper work? This technique applies in trend trading. First, we need initial thrusting move – this is AB leg of our potential AB-CD pattern on weekly chart. Then, we need price to reach some significant level of support, but weekly trend should hold bullish, or we might say “cover” this retracement. This is BC leg on weekly or downward AB=CD retracement on daily right to 50% support of AB move around 1.30. After that we have to wait and see – will market confirm this level and reestablish upward move. That has happened, but this is not sufficient to enter long. Second necessary moment is daily trend shifting bullish – in a row with weekly (higher) time frame. When market has shown all this price action – we need first retracement from starting move of CD leg (from 1.30 to 1.33) to enter long. That’s why on Thursday we’ve recommended to enter long at 1.3140. And now it looks like all this stuff has worked perfect. The one reason, why yesterday we’ve expressed some worries about upward reversal around 1.3140 - is strong black candle on intraday chart. In most cases market proceeds lower, but this happens not always, this is a probability game. Still, even this moment that I’ve become wrong with assumption of downward continuation on 4-hour chart and market acted in quite opposite way gives me another thought. Particularly, if market on 4-hour chart totally disrespect this huge black candle and drastically reversed to upside, although in most cases it proceeds lower – is it a sign of bullish strength? Does this moment give us additional confidence with upward continuation? I think this might be so.
At the same time, just to be absolutely sure, I would like to get one more action – breakout through 1.33 Fib resistance on daily and erasing of H&S pattern on daily. That will just destroy all barriers on the way of bulls. So, if you’ve entered long on Thursday and hold your position – that’s perfect. If you have not entered yet, then probably it is not needed to rush and enter after this final moment.
Colored lines on the chart as usual are weekly pivot levels for coming week.
Trend holds bullish here as well. In fact we have strong bullish context. There is couple of interesting moments here. First of all, recent price action reminds reverse H&S pattern – I’ve just take a look at previous report and we have really discussed this, but on hourly chart... The more interesting though, is its target at 1.3590 stands almost at the same level as weekly 0.618 target of AB-CD pattern.
Second moment is Agreement at 1.33-1.3315. This is the last stand for bears and daily H&S pattern. Although I strongly do not recommend short current market, but if you have bearish view this is nice point for that purpose. If even you will be wrong, you will be able to place tight stop here.
Here is also two moments that worthy to be mentioned. I’ve marked Stop Grabber pattern with red circle on hourly chart. It gives us some assurance that market will reached 1.33-1.3310 Agreement. Then, probably some retracement could follow. It has to be used differently, depending on what you will do around 1.33-1.3310 level. If you’re bearish, and will enter short there (although as I’ve said, I do not recommend it, since overall context is bullish), you may use this retracement to move your stop to breakeven.
If you will search possibility to enter long, then, probably nearest 3/8 support at 1.3234 and K-support 1.3182-1.3197 are levels to focus on. This will be just 0.618 target, so theoretically retracement should not break K-support level.
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Long-term traders should sit on hands and wait when weekly AB=CD retracement will be over to enter short.
Although overall analysis may look a bit complicated, in fact, there are only two moments to keep in mind now. First – overall weekly/daily context is and we should search possibilities to enter long. Second – just for more safety it makes sense to wait breakout of 1.33-1.3310 level. But how to enter long or enter long at all – this choice is up to you, since risk aversion is different among us. In daily updates we will try to find appropriate moment.
The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
Results 1 to 10 of 22
03-24-2012, 03:37 AM #1
FOREX PRO Weekly March 26 - 30, 2012
03-24-2012, 03:40 AM #2
EUR/USD Daily Update, Tue 27, March 2012
market has shown upward thrust yesterday, but a bit with different manner compares to what we've expected - shown retracement first and later disrecpect and break of Agreement level.
Anyway, at daily we have more or less acceptable picture -trend holds , market shows shallow retracements and starts to earsing of H&S pattern. This finally gives us sufficient confidence and allows to start game on bulls' side.
Also market holds above both pivots. That's also important.
On 4 hour TF trend also holds and market stands in semi position between 0.618 and 1.0 extension targets. Here I've marked significant levels on the case if market will show some retracement. Our major one to keep an eye on - is K- around pivot point 1.3230. Market should not break it downside if bulls are really in charge.
On hourly a lot of possibilitites. First, we have smaller recent AB=CD pattern and market just has reached it's target. Since CD leg is steeper, usually price continues move up after some pullback. I prefer to see the target of this pullback around 1.33 K-area. That is also disrespected Agreement.
Also we have here context for intraday DRPO "Sell" pattern, that could this retracement. AS you can see - there are a lot of room and ideas as for scalpers as for day traders.
So, as a conclusion:
overall context is and if you're a daytrader look for possibility to enter long, since this move could last for extended period of time. First level to watch is 1.33. Simulteniously control 1.3230 K- on 4-hour.
If you're scalper you may try to short the market if it will confirm DRPO "Sell' at hourly chart. Target is the same 1.33
Last edited by Sive Morten; 03-26-2012 at 11:09 PM.
03-24-2012, 03:40 AM #3
EUR/USD Daily Update, Wed 28, March 2012
market is underway with retracement that we've specified yesterday. By the 4-hour bear trend we can suggest that market could show AB=CD retracement down, rather than just AB move.
That's why our major focus today should be on hourly AB=CD move that will point us an area where to search for long entry opportunities. Preliminary, this is K- area on houlry and 4 hour charts around 1.3265-1.3290.
All other comments that we've discussed yesterday are still valid, I just do not want to re-type them.
Last edited by Sive Morten; 03-27-2012 at 11:06 PM.
03-24-2012, 03:40 AM #4
EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 29, March 2012
Market does not indulge us with active price action, so I have to post short comments again.
On daily picture we have the same price action as day before - market is flirting with range between broken 0.618 level and pivot 1. Trend holds as overall sentiment.
On 4-hour chart trend is , market has accomplished AB=CD pattern precisely at first K- as we've suggested and now is showing respect to this level. In fact we have "222" Buy on 4-hour chart.
Still, if we will take a look at hourly chart, this respect move looks not so impressive as I want to see to treat it as upward continuation. This makes me think, that we still can't exclude continuation to 1.618 target and Agreement around 1.3255-1.3265 level.
As we've said previously, our major beacon is 1.3230 K- and weekly pivot. From point of view - I do not want to see its breakout to the downside.
So, what might be done today? If you have entered Long yesterday around 1.3265-1.3290 - hold position and move stop to break even.
If you do not have position yet - it's better to sit on the hands. Because if market will proceed lower - you will get better price to enter. If not, you still need some better quality of upward price action to approve your entry, that we do not have currently.
Last edited by Sive Morten; 03-28-2012 at 11:09 PM.
03-24-2012, 03:40 AM #5
EUR/USD Daily Update, Fri 30, March 2012
yesterday's trading plan was successful, market really has shown downward continuation to 1.618 extension of hourly AB=CD. Now it is showing solid thrust up. Also market now stands above pivot and 4-hour TF trend is ready to turn , while daily and hourly trends already are . This is good sign, that gives us more confidence that we really could see 1.3540-1.3580 level.
What can I recommend now? If you've entered long as we've suggested yesterday - you should feel very comfortable. Move your stop to b/e, watch movie and possibility to add more as well.
If you do not have long position - do not be upset. Now market is showing nice thrust to the upside on hourly chart. You may use nearest 3/8 retracement from this new swing up to enter long.
Also, this might be interesting for scalpers - on 30-min chart there is a perfect context for DPRO "Sell". The target, I suppose, is at 1.3320
Last edited by Sive Morten; 03-29-2012 at 10:57 PM.
03-25-2012, 12:47 AM #6
03-25-2012, 04:35 AM #7
How do think the decision released on 3/23? Is it a bad news for euro? Dose Euro still has power to 1.35?
03-25-2012, 02:51 PM #8
03-26-2012, 02:03 AM #9
I dont know...
It is Sive who taught us that Market Makers will collect the of the public when it is an obvious H&S. There was one on H1 and the price went over the Head and returned back. There was no other but price didnt went to 61.8 on Daily or 61.8 target so I think it is only a trap.
I think H&S on Daily might work.
Still, entry technique of long positions was exceptional.
03-26-2012, 07:50 AM #10
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