Hey folks,
We saw some see-saw action on the EU and GU and while the turn towards a longer term downtrend is still the higher probability here, we could face some further strength in the near term, especially if we get good retail sales out of the U.S. and/or bullish equity markets on Thursday. EUR/USD will likely trade short term bullish working towards the highs around 1.4140 or even the 78% retracement at 1.4211 before capping out and turning lower. Stocks right now seemed to have formed yet another triangle pattern, this one with short term bullish implications. From what I can see is that there's about a 70% chance we trade up to new highs on the S&P in the 965-985 range over the next 4-10 days before turning the corner for a very deep selloff. The other 30% chance is that we manage to break through the 920-923 support shelf before hitting new highs and start the steep selloff now. On Wednesday we got a buy signal on NZD/USD that gave plenty of time to get in and managed a nice 70-100+ pip rally depending on how long you stayed in. AUD/USD also gave a near buy signal and managed to rocket up 70 pips as well going much further than I thought, so some decent price action yesterday. For tomorrow's news, there's only one worth trading:
0830 US Core Retail Sales (+0.2% expected) - We've seen some very nice trades with strong price action on this report with relatively small deviations, so look for a nice trade here if we get a surprise.
If it comes out at +0.7% or higher, EUR/JPY should rally 50+ pips.
If it comes out at -0.3% or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off 50+ pips.
We're also getting NZ Retail Sales, but this number rarely gets worthwhile price action, so it's probably better to play it safe and stay out of it.
*EDIT* at around 0235 we had some USD bullish commentary from the ECB about SDR's not being able to functionally replace USD as a reserve currency, so the short term EU and GU strength part of the picture may not play out as envisioned. Either way, the longer term trend is still very likely down on both pairs.
TRADE LIVE WITH SIR PIPS FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.
To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
We saw some see-saw action on the EU and GU and while the turn towards a longer term downtrend is still the higher probability here, we could face some further strength in the near term, especially if we get good retail sales out of the U.S. and/or bullish equity markets on Thursday. EUR/USD will likely trade short term bullish working towards the highs around 1.4140 or even the 78% retracement at 1.4211 before capping out and turning lower. Stocks right now seemed to have formed yet another triangle pattern, this one with short term bullish implications. From what I can see is that there's about a 70% chance we trade up to new highs on the S&P in the 965-985 range over the next 4-10 days before turning the corner for a very deep selloff. The other 30% chance is that we manage to break through the 920-923 support shelf before hitting new highs and start the steep selloff now. On Wednesday we got a buy signal on NZD/USD that gave plenty of time to get in and managed a nice 70-100+ pip rally depending on how long you stayed in. AUD/USD also gave a near buy signal and managed to rocket up 70 pips as well going much further than I thought, so some decent price action yesterday. For tomorrow's news, there's only one worth trading:
0830 US Core Retail Sales (+0.2% expected) - We've seen some very nice trades with strong price action on this report with relatively small deviations, so look for a nice trade here if we get a surprise.
If it comes out at +0.7% or higher, EUR/JPY should rally 50+ pips.
If it comes out at -0.3% or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off 50+ pips.
We're also getting NZ Retail Sales, but this number rarely gets worthwhile price action, so it's probably better to play it safe and stay out of it.
*EDIT* at around 0235 we had some USD bullish commentary from the ECB about SDR's not being able to functionally replace USD as a reserve currency, so the short term EU and GU strength part of the picture may not play out as envisioned. Either way, the longer term trend is still very likely down on both pairs.
TRADE LIVE WITH SIR PIPS FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.
To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
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