Hey folks,
Friday's price action managed to hold on to recent gains and avoid a selloff which means this final push to new highs is probably not quite over. My best guess is the S&P will muster another thrust taking it to or slightly through 1000 before blowing off this phase and taking a 1-3 week dip to recharge.
The EUR/USD managed to tag 1.4300 Sunday evening hitting my main target for that EUR/USD long I called back on Wednesday/Thursday last week from 1.4045. Like the stock market, I think both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD will likely thrust even higher from current levels to blow off some steam above their 1.4335 and 1.6750 June daily chart highs. I don't have a clear target on the GU, but I'm thinking about 1.4500 on the EU, so that would probably correspond to about 1.7000 on the GU. Keep in mind though that these are ending moves in the bigger picture, so the bigger trend trade will be waiting for them to finish up and getting short on them. If the bigger turn south starts to come a bit early, I'll work hard to identify that possibility as quickly and clearly as I can.
Silver has managed to follow markets back higher above $14, so it's looking like a better and better short as we rally into the $14.30 level or $14.60 area. Both are great spots in my opinion to enter short or add short to a long term position trade.
In news on Friday we saw Swedish GDP come out only a bit better than expected (not quite hitting our sell triggers), but it was a runaway trade breaking nearby support on EUR/SEK and surging for over 1000 pips. The US GDP release was a mess with better than expected 2Q Advance numbers, but everything else was bad from Personal Consumption to a big negative revision to 1Q final numbers. In the end, we got some whipsaw action that resulted downwards for awhile, so thank goodness the 2Q Advance number missed our buy trigger by a bit. On Monday:
1000 US ISM Manufacturing (46.5 expected) - This number has not performed very well in recent months, so I recommend holding out for a larger surprise in order to put a trade on. Sometimes this will push the USD/JPY more, and sometimes it will push the EUR/USD more... it's hard to say, so I recommend bridging the gap and trading EUR/JPY.
If it comes out at 48.5 or higher, EUR/JPY should rally 40-50 pips.
If it comes out at 44.7 or lower, EUR/JPY should fall 40-50 pips.
0030 (Monday night/Tuesday morning EST) AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (no change at 3.00% expected) - Economists are unanimously expecting no change, so any move will be a big surprise worth a trade. As far a the commentary is concerned, interest rate futures are pricing in a strong chance of a rate hike late this year or early next year, so any clear dovish hits to that outlook could create a selling opportunity from the statement itself.
If they hike any amount, AUD/USD should rally 80+ pips.
If they cut any amount, AUD/USD should sell off 100+ pips.
TRADE LIVE WITH SIR PIPS FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.
To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
Friday's price action managed to hold on to recent gains and avoid a selloff which means this final push to new highs is probably not quite over. My best guess is the S&P will muster another thrust taking it to or slightly through 1000 before blowing off this phase and taking a 1-3 week dip to recharge.
The EUR/USD managed to tag 1.4300 Sunday evening hitting my main target for that EUR/USD long I called back on Wednesday/Thursday last week from 1.4045. Like the stock market, I think both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD will likely thrust even higher from current levels to blow off some steam above their 1.4335 and 1.6750 June daily chart highs. I don't have a clear target on the GU, but I'm thinking about 1.4500 on the EU, so that would probably correspond to about 1.7000 on the GU. Keep in mind though that these are ending moves in the bigger picture, so the bigger trend trade will be waiting for them to finish up and getting short on them. If the bigger turn south starts to come a bit early, I'll work hard to identify that possibility as quickly and clearly as I can.
Silver has managed to follow markets back higher above $14, so it's looking like a better and better short as we rally into the $14.30 level or $14.60 area. Both are great spots in my opinion to enter short or add short to a long term position trade.
In news on Friday we saw Swedish GDP come out only a bit better than expected (not quite hitting our sell triggers), but it was a runaway trade breaking nearby support on EUR/SEK and surging for over 1000 pips. The US GDP release was a mess with better than expected 2Q Advance numbers, but everything else was bad from Personal Consumption to a big negative revision to 1Q final numbers. In the end, we got some whipsaw action that resulted downwards for awhile, so thank goodness the 2Q Advance number missed our buy trigger by a bit. On Monday:
1000 US ISM Manufacturing (46.5 expected) - This number has not performed very well in recent months, so I recommend holding out for a larger surprise in order to put a trade on. Sometimes this will push the USD/JPY more, and sometimes it will push the EUR/USD more... it's hard to say, so I recommend bridging the gap and trading EUR/JPY.
If it comes out at 48.5 or higher, EUR/JPY should rally 40-50 pips.
If it comes out at 44.7 or lower, EUR/JPY should fall 40-50 pips.
0030 (Monday night/Tuesday morning EST) AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (no change at 3.00% expected) - Economists are unanimously expecting no change, so any move will be a big surprise worth a trade. As far a the commentary is concerned, interest rate futures are pricing in a strong chance of a rate hike late this year or early next year, so any clear dovish hits to that outlook could create a selling opportunity from the statement itself.
If they hike any amount, AUD/USD should rally 80+ pips.
If they cut any amount, AUD/USD should sell off 100+ pips.
TRADE LIVE WITH SIR PIPS FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.
To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
