Sir Pipsalot
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 511
Hey folks,
Well, the EUR/USD rally so far has pretty much fulfilled our forecast for a EUR/USD rise near 1.4700, (highs in the 1.4680's so far), but based on my interpretation of the near term wave structure, it's likely the Euro still has some more upside left maybe as high as 1.4800. If you look at an hourly chart, we've seen 3 clear waves up from the 1.4515 low early this week, and we'll most likely need to see more of a mature 5 wave structure in place before the top is in place. For that to happen cleanly, we'd see a bit more upside near term tonight (so wave 3 is bigger than wave 1... not a must but that is usually the case), followed by a period of retracement or triangle consolidation (wave 4), and then a final push to ultimate highs (wave 5 of 5). Conversely, a break below 1.4515 at this point would be the first key sign that a lasting top may already be in place.
Last night we also had a very big tape bomb from the Bank of England's Governor King. In testimony he basically said they're considering cutting interest rates which was a big surprise to the market and has lead to considerable GBP weakness. I anticipate further gains in EUR/GBP of several hundred pips over the coming weeks and months as the GBP weakens. It also may be a good chance to get in early on the big USD turn by getting in short GBP/USD while we wait on EUR/USD. I think going long EUR/GBP (currently around 0.8910) and/or short GBP/USD (currently around 1.6460) make good sense for position trades, but I'm probably going to wait a bit on the GBP/USD short and wait until I enter EUR/USD sometime in the next week or so.
Like the Euro, Gold probably still has some more push left in it, so I'm holding out to take final profits on the long around 1035 and then poke around at the idea of a new short, but I'll probably feel more comfortable shorting Silver at that point.
Stocks, like the Euro, still seem to have some upwards push left as well, although I took half profits on my long from 1029 around 1050 as planned. I don't really expect stocks to rally past 1100, so if you can afford to give it some room, you could try to get short early because the downside will end up being quite dramatic. I'm personally waiting to time the top a bit more precisely though and I'll let you guys know when I pull the trigger short.
In economic news Tuesday, UK CPI came out barely hitting our buy triggers, but the BoE testimony afterwards derailed the pullback buy (which I think would have worked fine) and kept GU under selling pressure. The German ZEW numbers came out slightly bad (not hitting our triggers), and buying the dip on the EUR/USD would have worked well if you were patient with it, and if you weren't, at least it didn't bolt into sharp losses. All the US data came out high which led to the typical USD/JPY upside of about 40 pips, but it peaked out after about 20 minutes when stocks failed to maintain the rally in the premarket. In news Wednesday:
0430 UK Claimant Count Change and ILO Unemployment Rate - Unfortunately, I don't think these numbers are particularly "news tradable." What I mean is that a certain level of surprise on the number does not seem to lead to a predictable outcome. Because of this, I can't offer triggers on these. However, these numbers will get some focus and create some good volatility for you technical traders out there, so feel free to take advantage.
0830 US Core CPI m/m (0.1% expected) - If the deviation is only 0.1% from expectations, this number could still work if the y/y Core, and both headline numbers also come out in the same direction. Otherwise, we'll probably need 0.2% away from expectations to more reliably push USD/JPY.
If it comes out at 0.3% or higher, USD/JPY should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at -0.1% or lower, USD/JPY should fall 40 pips.
On a side note, I'm sorry I haven't been doing video signals the past week or two. I've developed an issue with my webspace right now getting them hosted properly, and am using that as an opportunity to give the process an overhaul and look to host them more professionally. In another couple weeks I'll have new and improved video signals for you folks on a regular basis. Until then, hopefully the text signals will suffice. Let me know if you have any suggestions for the videos as well.
TRADE LIVE WITH SIR PIPS FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.
To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
Well, the EUR/USD rally so far has pretty much fulfilled our forecast for a EUR/USD rise near 1.4700, (highs in the 1.4680's so far), but based on my interpretation of the near term wave structure, it's likely the Euro still has some more upside left maybe as high as 1.4800. If you look at an hourly chart, we've seen 3 clear waves up from the 1.4515 low early this week, and we'll most likely need to see more of a mature 5 wave structure in place before the top is in place. For that to happen cleanly, we'd see a bit more upside near term tonight (so wave 3 is bigger than wave 1... not a must but that is usually the case), followed by a period of retracement or triangle consolidation (wave 4), and then a final push to ultimate highs (wave 5 of 5). Conversely, a break below 1.4515 at this point would be the first key sign that a lasting top may already be in place.
Last night we also had a very big tape bomb from the Bank of England's Governor King. In testimony he basically said they're considering cutting interest rates which was a big surprise to the market and has lead to considerable GBP weakness. I anticipate further gains in EUR/GBP of several hundred pips over the coming weeks and months as the GBP weakens. It also may be a good chance to get in early on the big USD turn by getting in short GBP/USD while we wait on EUR/USD. I think going long EUR/GBP (currently around 0.8910) and/or short GBP/USD (currently around 1.6460) make good sense for position trades, but I'm probably going to wait a bit on the GBP/USD short and wait until I enter EUR/USD sometime in the next week or so.
Like the Euro, Gold probably still has some more push left in it, so I'm holding out to take final profits on the long around 1035 and then poke around at the idea of a new short, but I'll probably feel more comfortable shorting Silver at that point.
Stocks, like the Euro, still seem to have some upwards push left as well, although I took half profits on my long from 1029 around 1050 as planned. I don't really expect stocks to rally past 1100, so if you can afford to give it some room, you could try to get short early because the downside will end up being quite dramatic. I'm personally waiting to time the top a bit more precisely though and I'll let you guys know when I pull the trigger short.
In economic news Tuesday, UK CPI came out barely hitting our buy triggers, but the BoE testimony afterwards derailed the pullback buy (which I think would have worked fine) and kept GU under selling pressure. The German ZEW numbers came out slightly bad (not hitting our triggers), and buying the dip on the EUR/USD would have worked well if you were patient with it, and if you weren't, at least it didn't bolt into sharp losses. All the US data came out high which led to the typical USD/JPY upside of about 40 pips, but it peaked out after about 20 minutes when stocks failed to maintain the rally in the premarket. In news Wednesday:
0430 UK Claimant Count Change and ILO Unemployment Rate - Unfortunately, I don't think these numbers are particularly "news tradable." What I mean is that a certain level of surprise on the number does not seem to lead to a predictable outcome. Because of this, I can't offer triggers on these. However, these numbers will get some focus and create some good volatility for you technical traders out there, so feel free to take advantage.
0830 US Core CPI m/m (0.1% expected) - If the deviation is only 0.1% from expectations, this number could still work if the y/y Core, and both headline numbers also come out in the same direction. Otherwise, we'll probably need 0.2% away from expectations to more reliably push USD/JPY.
If it comes out at 0.3% or higher, USD/JPY should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at -0.1% or lower, USD/JPY should fall 40 pips.
On a side note, I'm sorry I haven't been doing video signals the past week or two. I've developed an issue with my webspace right now getting them hosted properly, and am using that as an opportunity to give the process an overhaul and look to host them more professionally. In another couple weeks I'll have new and improved video signals for you folks on a regular basis. Until then, hopefully the text signals will suffice. Let me know if you have any suggestions for the videos as well.
TRADE LIVE WITH SIR PIPS FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.
To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
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