Sir Pipsalot
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 511
Hey folks,
Well, we had some pretty strong days yesterday bucking the downtrend to the upside, and we've jutted up against some key resistances. If we have another strong day Tuesday, we'll have to closely evaluate our positions and consider going into loss minimization mode. However, with us jutting up against resistance levels, it gives us a great chance to get in short on some markets with tight stop losses and large reward vs. risk ratios. For example, we have a downwards sloping trendline on the EUR/USD on the hourly chart (connect the tops) coming into play on the EUR/USD at 1.4650 right now. With the EU at 1.4620-30 or so as I speak, it allows you to get short with a 25-30 pip SL and even just a move down to the bottom of the channel would be over 100 pips. I just called this trade in the Diamonds room and we'll see how it works out. Tough to nab 100+ pips with a 20-30 pip SL, but I think this one has a great shot. Stocks are a great short here with a tight stop loss as well as well. We're right around the 61.8% retracement (1065 on S&P cash) of wave 1 down, and we got there on a Jewish holiday with light volume (likely to be reversed the next day typically).
So, bottom line guys... on our EUR/USD, Stock and Silver short positions, I think we're on the verge of another downturn. So if you're not in, feel free to get in on these bounces we've seen. And if you're already in, stand by and we'll see what happens today. If we start pushing up through 1065 decisively on stocks and/or 1.4720 on the EUR/USD, then we may be forced to seek to minimize losses on the shorts. Too early to panic though at this point. Remember, the timeframe for these shorts is months, and we've been in less than a week. Most of the action right now is noise and we can afford to be patient until we get more conclusive evidence. That said, if you find yourself in with too much size on your shorts, do yourself a favor and take some off the table or tighten your stop losses to above Monday's highs.
In news Tuesday:
0430 UK GDP 2Q Final (-0.6% expected) - The final revision gets deviations less often, but they're still fairly tradable. I'd expect 40+ pips on a 0.2% deviation especially with recent GBP volatility.
If it comes out at -0.4% or higher, GBP/USD should rally 40+ pips.
If it comes out at -0.8% or lower, GBP/USD should sell off 40+ pips.
1000 US Consumer Confidence (57.0 expected) - It's tough nowadays to judge which type of reaction will follow US reports. Will we get a big risk appetite/aversion move that makes the USD/JPY move up or down along with the surprise? Or will that risk sentiment be best reflected on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD? Quite frankly, I'm not sure on this one. We used to get both at the same time making EUR/JPY the ideal trade... but now we get more of an either-or scenario and it seems like gambling to choose one ahead of time. My recommendation is to look to sell either EUR/USD or USD/JPY on a bad number of 53 or below, and to buy either EUR/USD or USD/JPY on a good number of 61 or above. I'd pick the one that has the cleanest, best reaction in the first minute or so. If the spike is more than 20 pips off the bat, then try waiting for a retracement. If this number works right, usually it creates a somewhat steady trend for 30 minutes or so.
2130 AU Retail Sales - I don't like this news as it's very hit or miss, and the hits are hard to make money on when I trade them live, so I plan on skipping this.
TRADE LIVE WITH SIR PIPS FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.
To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
Well, we had some pretty strong days yesterday bucking the downtrend to the upside, and we've jutted up against some key resistances. If we have another strong day Tuesday, we'll have to closely evaluate our positions and consider going into loss minimization mode. However, with us jutting up against resistance levels, it gives us a great chance to get in short on some markets with tight stop losses and large reward vs. risk ratios. For example, we have a downwards sloping trendline on the EUR/USD on the hourly chart (connect the tops) coming into play on the EUR/USD at 1.4650 right now. With the EU at 1.4620-30 or so as I speak, it allows you to get short with a 25-30 pip SL and even just a move down to the bottom of the channel would be over 100 pips. I just called this trade in the Diamonds room and we'll see how it works out. Tough to nab 100+ pips with a 20-30 pip SL, but I think this one has a great shot. Stocks are a great short here with a tight stop loss as well as well. We're right around the 61.8% retracement (1065 on S&P cash) of wave 1 down, and we got there on a Jewish holiday with light volume (likely to be reversed the next day typically).
So, bottom line guys... on our EUR/USD, Stock and Silver short positions, I think we're on the verge of another downturn. So if you're not in, feel free to get in on these bounces we've seen. And if you're already in, stand by and we'll see what happens today. If we start pushing up through 1065 decisively on stocks and/or 1.4720 on the EUR/USD, then we may be forced to seek to minimize losses on the shorts. Too early to panic though at this point. Remember, the timeframe for these shorts is months, and we've been in less than a week. Most of the action right now is noise and we can afford to be patient until we get more conclusive evidence. That said, if you find yourself in with too much size on your shorts, do yourself a favor and take some off the table or tighten your stop losses to above Monday's highs.
In news Tuesday:
0430 UK GDP 2Q Final (-0.6% expected) - The final revision gets deviations less often, but they're still fairly tradable. I'd expect 40+ pips on a 0.2% deviation especially with recent GBP volatility.
If it comes out at -0.4% or higher, GBP/USD should rally 40+ pips.
If it comes out at -0.8% or lower, GBP/USD should sell off 40+ pips.
1000 US Consumer Confidence (57.0 expected) - It's tough nowadays to judge which type of reaction will follow US reports. Will we get a big risk appetite/aversion move that makes the USD/JPY move up or down along with the surprise? Or will that risk sentiment be best reflected on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD? Quite frankly, I'm not sure on this one. We used to get both at the same time making EUR/JPY the ideal trade... but now we get more of an either-or scenario and it seems like gambling to choose one ahead of time. My recommendation is to look to sell either EUR/USD or USD/JPY on a bad number of 53 or below, and to buy either EUR/USD or USD/JPY on a good number of 61 or above. I'd pick the one that has the cleanest, best reaction in the first minute or so. If the spike is more than 20 pips off the bat, then try waiting for a retracement. If this number works right, usually it creates a somewhat steady trend for 30 minutes or so.
2130 AU Retail Sales - I don't like this news as it's very hit or miss, and the hits are hard to make money on when I trade them live, so I plan on skipping this.
TRADE LIVE WITH SIR PIPS FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.
To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
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