Sir Pipsalot
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 511
Hey folks,
We got some nice, favorable price action towards USD strength, silver weakness, and significant stock market weakness today in line with our position trade trends. We're not out of the woods yet, particularly on the USD, but things look materially improved compared to the last couple of days. Short term the picture still isn't completely clear to me since the EU and GU have been pretty well supported over the last 12-18 hours, so I'll refrain from giving a shorter term bias heading into NFP in the morning for now.
Stocks had an incredible down day registering 27 points down on the S&P. Again, I'm aggressively short stocks both medium term and long term, so look at any decent rallies as potential opportunities for swing trade shorts as well. Friday's action will be largely dependent upon NFP and if anything is looking to recover some of yesterday's losses with a modest rally.
In news Thursday we saw UK Manufacturing PMI and the US data come out too close to expected for a clear trade. In news Friday:
0200 UK Nationwide House Prices m/m (0.7% expected) - Typically you might get a pretty decent reaction on GBP/USD with a 1% deviation, but it hasn't responded particularly well lately with +1.1% deviations in back to back months essentially being ignored. I'd recommend skipping it.
0830 US NonFarm Payrolls (-175K expected) - Look out for a revision to the prior month's -216K and take that into account along with the deviation from this month's number to gauge the overall surprise. Also, if the unemployment rate comes in better or worse than expected by 0.2% (9.8% expected) that will factor in just as much. If we get a clear positive or negative surprise, USD/JPY should be a fairly steady trade, while EUR/USD will likely swing one way, then reverse 5-15 minutes later. This is not a guarantee, but it's been happening pretty consistently lately, so that's what I'm looking for. If the numbers are mixed or close to expected, a EUR/USD reversal may still work out, but I'd stay out of the USD/JPY
If it comes out at -100K or higher, EUR/USD should rally, then turn south while USD/JPY rallies.
If it comes out at -250K or lower, EUR/USD should fall, then possibly turn higher while USD/JPY falls.
We got some nice, favorable price action towards USD strength, silver weakness, and significant stock market weakness today in line with our position trade trends. We're not out of the woods yet, particularly on the USD, but things look materially improved compared to the last couple of days. Short term the picture still isn't completely clear to me since the EU and GU have been pretty well supported over the last 12-18 hours, so I'll refrain from giving a shorter term bias heading into NFP in the morning for now.
Stocks had an incredible down day registering 27 points down on the S&P. Again, I'm aggressively short stocks both medium term and long term, so look at any decent rallies as potential opportunities for swing trade shorts as well. Friday's action will be largely dependent upon NFP and if anything is looking to recover some of yesterday's losses with a modest rally.
In news Thursday we saw UK Manufacturing PMI and the US data come out too close to expected for a clear trade. In news Friday:
0200 UK Nationwide House Prices m/m (0.7% expected) - Typically you might get a pretty decent reaction on GBP/USD with a 1% deviation, but it hasn't responded particularly well lately with +1.1% deviations in back to back months essentially being ignored. I'd recommend skipping it.
0830 US NonFarm Payrolls (-175K expected) - Look out for a revision to the prior month's -216K and take that into account along with the deviation from this month's number to gauge the overall surprise. Also, if the unemployment rate comes in better or worse than expected by 0.2% (9.8% expected) that will factor in just as much. If we get a clear positive or negative surprise, USD/JPY should be a fairly steady trade, while EUR/USD will likely swing one way, then reverse 5-15 minutes later. This is not a guarantee, but it's been happening pretty consistently lately, so that's what I'm looking for. If the numbers are mixed or close to expected, a EUR/USD reversal may still work out, but I'd stay out of the USD/JPY
If it comes out at -100K or higher, EUR/USD should rally, then turn south while USD/JPY rallies.
If it comes out at -250K or lower, EUR/USD should fall, then possibly turn higher while USD/JPY falls.
