Sir Pipsalot
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 511
Hey folks,
I've got family visiting, so I'm going to try to keep it brief tonight. The Euro has continued its selloff even further past our entry price on the short last night and remains under some pressure. The evidence is pointing towards a more major USD strengthening reversal that should last at least weeks, but could last months, so I'm looking for at least 1000 pips on the Euro short before I close the last of it (obviously take some profits sooner as discussed yesterday). If you missed out getting in short at 1.4900 or better, it's still not horrible getting in near here around 1.4800, you'll just have to use a 300 pip SL instead of 200 and be prepared for a bit bumpier of a ride.
Stocks consolidated somewhat today after many failed attempts at a rally. My best guess short term is that we ease lower around 1050 and set a multiday low somewhere in that region between now and Friday. I plan to close most of my shorts there and wait for either a better price on a bounce, or higher probabilities accompanying a break of key support in that region before jumping back in.
We kind of missed the boat on shorting Gold and silver so far, but with the strong potential multiday low coming into play here in both stocks and commodities between now and the end of the week, I'd prefer to stay out and wait for a healthy bounce before considering shorting.
In news Tuesday, US Consumer Confidence came in significantly lower than expected, and EUR/JPY made a great move for us down 60 pips in the first 10 minutes which is a bigger move than it usually makes. Thanks to the identified EUR/USD downtrend, the price never really recovered and we're now 170 pips lower as I type this. AU CPI figures came out too close to expectations for much of a trade. In news Wednesday:
0830 and 1000 US Core Durable Goods and New Home Sales - I think both of these figures have potential, but they've been big busts lately in providing us good predictable price action to make money from. To play it safe, I'd rather see these indicators give great reactions at least once before I consider trading them again. While I think news is doing quite well in the last couple weeks and these indicators may be due for a comeback, I don't want to throw money at them too soon, so I'm going to refrain from giving specific recommendations on them.
1600 NZ Interest Rate Decision (no change at 2.50% expected) - There is very little chance of a surprise move at this decision, so most of the price action will be in response to the statement released and the tone it contains. Markets are expecting the RBNZ to raise interest rates within the next 12 months, and any especially hawkish tone with focus on inflation will shorten that time window to 6 months and lead towards NZD/USD strength. On the other side, if they maintain a very cautious and neutral tone, the markets will probably be disapoointed and the NZD/USD should exhibit weakness. How much and for how long depends on the severity of the statements.
If it comes out at 2.75% or higher, NZD/USD should rally 70+ pips.
If it comes out at 2.25% or lower, NZD/USD should fall 100+ pips.
TRADE LIVE WITH Forex Diamonds FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.
To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
I've got family visiting, so I'm going to try to keep it brief tonight. The Euro has continued its selloff even further past our entry price on the short last night and remains under some pressure. The evidence is pointing towards a more major USD strengthening reversal that should last at least weeks, but could last months, so I'm looking for at least 1000 pips on the Euro short before I close the last of it (obviously take some profits sooner as discussed yesterday). If you missed out getting in short at 1.4900 or better, it's still not horrible getting in near here around 1.4800, you'll just have to use a 300 pip SL instead of 200 and be prepared for a bit bumpier of a ride.
Stocks consolidated somewhat today after many failed attempts at a rally. My best guess short term is that we ease lower around 1050 and set a multiday low somewhere in that region between now and Friday. I plan to close most of my shorts there and wait for either a better price on a bounce, or higher probabilities accompanying a break of key support in that region before jumping back in.
We kind of missed the boat on shorting Gold and silver so far, but with the strong potential multiday low coming into play here in both stocks and commodities between now and the end of the week, I'd prefer to stay out and wait for a healthy bounce before considering shorting.
In news Tuesday, US Consumer Confidence came in significantly lower than expected, and EUR/JPY made a great move for us down 60 pips in the first 10 minutes which is a bigger move than it usually makes. Thanks to the identified EUR/USD downtrend, the price never really recovered and we're now 170 pips lower as I type this. AU CPI figures came out too close to expectations for much of a trade. In news Wednesday:
0830 and 1000 US Core Durable Goods and New Home Sales - I think both of these figures have potential, but they've been big busts lately in providing us good predictable price action to make money from. To play it safe, I'd rather see these indicators give great reactions at least once before I consider trading them again. While I think news is doing quite well in the last couple weeks and these indicators may be due for a comeback, I don't want to throw money at them too soon, so I'm going to refrain from giving specific recommendations on them.
1600 NZ Interest Rate Decision (no change at 2.50% expected) - There is very little chance of a surprise move at this decision, so most of the price action will be in response to the statement released and the tone it contains. Markets are expecting the RBNZ to raise interest rates within the next 12 months, and any especially hawkish tone with focus on inflation will shorten that time window to 6 months and lead towards NZD/USD strength. On the other side, if they maintain a very cautious and neutral tone, the markets will probably be disapoointed and the NZD/USD should exhibit weakness. How much and for how long depends on the severity of the statements.
If it comes out at 2.75% or higher, NZD/USD should rally 70+ pips.
If it comes out at 2.25% or lower, NZD/USD should fall 100+ pips.
TRADE LIVE WITH Forex Diamonds FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.
To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
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