Forex Signal (Tue, Feb 16, 04:30 am EST) UK CPI m/m

[Crazy Cat]

Hi there

On Tuesday, Feb 16th at 04:30 am New York Time we will have UK CPI y/y coming out. It is expected to read 3.5. Last month it read 2.9.

Please read what this indicator means and how it affects the GBP/USD by going to this link: https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-forum/economic-indicator-descriptions/7506-uk-cpi.html

The trigger for this indicator is 0.2. This means that if UK CPI m/m comes out at 3.7 or higher, GBP/USD will probably go up by 35 pips in the first 45 minutes of the report. If it comes out at 3.3 or less, GBP/USD will probably go down by 35 pips or more in the first 45 minutes of the report.

It is OK to trade UK CPI number, also with 0.2 trigger.

Be careful, this report tends to make a spike and then retrace hard.

Obviously, the bigger the difference between expected and actual numbers, the bigger will be the move.

In addition to the UK CPI y/y number, we will have other CPI numbers and RPI numbers coming out. If there is a conflict between them, I recommend skipping this trade, but the conflict is highly unlikely. In terms of RPI, it doesn't matter that much, so you can just ignore it.

To read the after-spike retracement strategy for this report click here: https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/fore...cpi-y-y-after-spike-retracement-strategy.html

For example: on January 19th, UK CPI y/y came out at 2.9, versus an expectation of 2.6. As a result, GBP/USD went up by around 40 pips. See for yourself what happened on this chart: Forex news trading currency exchange charts

I highly recommend you study the entire history and charts of this report by following this link: Forex News Trading | Details and History for GBP CPI y/y

I hope you make some money on this report.
-Crazy Cat

 

[habrys]

It is OK to trade UK CPI number, also with 0.2 trigger.

Ok, I'm officially lost. So generally you recommend trading UK CPI y/y (previous: 2.9, forecast: 3.7) with trigger 0.2, right? That's clear I think...

As an alternative UK CPI m/m (previous: 0.6, forecast: 0.1)? Or maybe UK Core CPI y/y (previous: 2.8, forecast: ~, but shows up till morning perhaps)?

I'm asking this detailed, because I noticed trading NZ Core Retail Sales m/m last week, that the other NZ report, which you also recommended as alternative then, showed up in SNW a few seconds before NZ Core Retail Sales m/m and the price already moved 20 pips up or so before SNW clicked my SELL button.

I was thinking, that best strategy for such "double reports" would be to configure 2 separate trades in SNW. If the first one fired SELL or BUY it would also close the buy/sell window in my broker platform (with second hyperclick) to make impossible for the second report to open another position (or add to existing one). This way I could automatically choose the report, which shows up first in SNW for my trade and avoid loosing the initial move of the price.

Here, with UK CPIs of all flavours the situation is the same it seems.

What do you think?

 

[Crazy Cat]

Ok, I'm officially lost. So generally you recommend trading UK CPI y/y (previous: 2.9, forecast: 3.7) with trigger 0.2, right? That's clear I think...

As an alternative UK CPI m/m (previous: 0.6, forecast: 0.1)? Or maybe UK Core CPI y/y (previous: 2.8, forecast: ~, but shows up till morning perhaps)?

I'm asking this detailed, because I noticed trading NZ Core Retail Sales m/m last week, that the other NZ report, which you also recommended as alternative then, showed up in SNW a few seconds before NZ Core Retail Sales m/m and the price already moved 20 pips up or so before SNW clicked my SELL button.

I was thinking, that best strategy for such "double reports" would be to configure 2 separate trades in SNW. If the first one fired SELL or BUY it would also close the buy/sell window in my broker platform (with second hyperclick) to make impossible for the second report to open another position (or add to existing one). This way I could automatically choose the report, which shows up first in SNW for my trade and avoid loosing the initial move of the price.

Here, with UK CPIs of all flavours the situation is the same it seems.

What do you think?

CPI is quite tricky. Some people trade m/m some people trade y/y, some people headline, some other core. Perhaps m/m is a good choice, I might switch to m/m as I do more analysis right before the report.

 

[habrys]

CPI is quite tricky. Some people trade m/m some people trade y/y, some people headline, some other core. Perhaps m/m is a good choice, I might switch to m/m as I do more analysis right before the report.

Ok, let us know tomorrow which one are you going to trade then - if you don't mind that is.

Which one do you think will show up in SNW first? Or is it just pure lottery?

My worry is, that let's say I'll trade y/y, but m/m shows up a few seconds earlier with deviation above 0.2. Then I'll probably end up with my position opened because y/y deviation (which would be probably also above 0.2), but right after the initial spike caused by m/m. Which means no profit or even loss most of the times... This is exactly what happened to me during the New Zealand reports last week (I didn't lose only because I closed my position very quickly, like after 6 seconds...).

 

[koco]

habrys: which broker do you use with SNW?

 

[Crazy Cat]

Ok, let us know tomorrow which one are you going to trade then - if you don't mind that is.

Which one do you think will show up in SNW first? Or is it just pure lottery?

My worry is, that let's say I'll trade y/y, but m/m shows up a few seconds earlier with deviation above 0.2. Then I'll probably end up with my position opened because y/y deviation (which would be probably also above 0.2), but right after the initial spike caused by m/m. Which means no profit or even loss most of the times... This is exactly what happened to me during the New Zealand reports last week (I didn't lose only because I closed my position very quickly, like after 6 seconds...).

It seems CPI y/y headline is OK to trade.