02/11/10

[cowmadagan]

I expect the EUR/GBP to drop by about 50 pips from the time of this posting to 6am EST.

 

[manneke]

expectations

did not happen,and does not look probable to happen in the next future, gbp is very weak .

 

[cowmadagan]

yeah...my bet was actually on the relative weakness of the Euro..I didn't anticipate the Aussie employment data to be good enough to boost the Euro.

 

[manneke]

euro

euro is indeed weak,but gbp is even weaker for the moment

 

[cowmadagan]

I was off by an hour.

 

[manneke]

gbp is becoming lately weaker than euro, even with crisis from greece,quite intresting.I wonder why?

 

[cowmadagan]

I'd say the better way to look at it is that the gbp was in a leading mid to long term profit taking phase against the usd, and it was out of sync with the euro which lagged.
In other words, until the world gets the heebie jeebies about the US deficit (hasn't happened yet), I expect further weakness in EUR and GBP, and possibly CHF, and any strength is profit taking phases.
Also, I recommend doing what I'm doing which is switching short term to JPY crosses instead of USD. It seems that Japan has far less it can actually do.
That said, I know Japan has done an intervention as recently as the 90's to the tune of ten damn yen against the USD in the course of an hour during lunch hour.
Fact is, the JPY and the USD are quite similar, as they tend to do the same thing in all pairs, unlike how the EUR will gain against the USD but drop against the JPY while USD/JPY will flounder. blah blah blah

 

[Ricex]

gbp is becoming lately weaker than euro, even with crisis from greece,quite intresting.I wonder why?

I would guess that it's politics. The British are expecting a general election call sometime in May and the outcome is suspected to be a hung parliament.

I would expect to see cable trying to preempt the result, no different to how other currencies move before big news events.

 

[cowmadagan]

*Putting on an Ali G accent*

Wehw...'ow is it dat jus becos dey's votin da same dat dey knows dey's all gots huge dongs?

 

[Ricex]

........... respek innit