฿ Bitcoin BTC/USD Daily Video, January 03, 2019

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

Market behaves rather accurate with our H&S setup. So we could proceed with it. As entry points have worked nice - now we turn to final stage of this pattern - action to the target:



The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.

 

[cercamon]

Hi Sive, I usually use the 3-day chart to spot patterns between weekly and daily time frames.
I see that BTC is forming a DRPO look-alike which is aligned with the Daily IH&S targets. Maybe the two bottoms are quite separate in the price scale for it to qualify as a DRPO. Would you consider this to be a relevant pattern?

 

[cercamon]

I've been doing a quick volume study on the daily IH&S bottom.
If we look closely, we see that Sell Volume is fading, which is a good thing for a bottoming pattern.
The Buy Volume was reasonable during the rally up that confirmed the left shoulder and the head... But the right shoulder is not getting any Volume confirmation. If this is the local bottom, some volume confirmation would be welcomed.
Don't intend to sound bearish, but I'm seeing early potential risk of triggering H&S failure pattern that could drive the price lower or even below the head level.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive, I usually use the 3-day chart to spot patterns between weekly and daily time frames.
I see that BTC is forming a DRPO look-alike which is aligned with the Daily IH&S targets. Maybe the two bottoms are quite separate in the price scale for it to qualify as a DRPO. Would you consider this to be a relevant pattern?

Well, for truth sake, this is not DRPO due second bottom weakness, as you correctly mentioned this. This is not capitulation of the bears definitely, because no strong bears' attack was there. But, taking in consideration H&S and other stuff, we could classify it as LAL, but personally I would skip it probably. Besides, thrust is also not perfect. 10 bars, but it has interruption, slow down in three bars till its end.

I've been doing a quick volume study on the daily IH&S bottom.
If we look closely, we see that Sell Volume is fading, which is a good thing for a bottoming pattern.
The Buy Volume was reasonable during the rally up that confirmed the left shoulder and the head... But the right shoulder is not getting any Volume confirmation. If this is the local bottom, some volume confirmation would be welcomed.
Don't intend to sound bearish, but I'm seeing early potential risk of triggering H&S failure pattern that could drive the price lower or even below the head level.

Yeah. This is very important observation, mate. Actually, yesterday, when I was doing this video, I was a bit worry for flat AB-CD upside action. I remember that I thought that H&S could fail and this fail will start from failure of minor, 1H pattern.

P.S.
Is it you asked me week ago about difference of Kibby and Stretch patterns? I remember that somebody asked, but I can't find the post.
First I had no time, end of financial year and other stuff and now I do not remember who was asking.

 

[cercamon]

Is it you asked me week ago about difference of Kibby and Stretch patterns? I remember that somebody asked, but I can't find the post.
First I had no time, end of financial year and other stuff and now I do not remember who was asking.

Yes, by the way! It was me asking the difference between the Kibby and Stretch

 

[Sive Morten]

Yes, by the way! It was me asking the difference between the Kibby and Stretch

Great. . Kibby trade is not described in any public material, except private seminars and private DiNapoli forum. Since it is really the challenge to visit DiNapoli p-sem from Russia (you need visit newbie sem first, then two advanced seminars), I share with you what I know from forum.
Also I know that our forum member Butcher FX was on all DiNapoli seminars, so probably he could provide better description. So:

Stretch is combination of overbought/oversold level with Fib resistance/support. It is tricky and relatively weak pattern as it stands against major tendency. Action in direction of this pattern could be very choppy and slow. Stretch is treated as done, if DOSC indicator reaches zero point.
As you understand, from specific of DOSC - this could happen few days later if market even will go nowhere. So, for me Stretch is mostly warning pattern that holds me from market entry. Weekly Stretch is more valuable.
Entry point could be done on multiple ways - either patterns on lower time frames, or using DiNapoli Minesweepers. Initially stop could be placed below Oversold level based on low prices (not close prices). But, if it is too far, stretch rare provides good risk/reward ratios, then it is possible to use intraday setups for stop placing.

Kibby trade is combination of overbought/oversold with major extension target on daily and higher time frames. To trade it, you need drop your time frame one step lower. Let's suppose, we trade bearish daily kibby, in this case you need turn to hourly. Then wait, when hourly trend will turn bearish and sell on nearest upside retracement (using Minesweeper). Target is some extension based on hourly action. Probably, retracement where you will take a position will be "C" point. Thus, you use AB-CD COP target as minimal one. Once COP has been reached - you act by situation.

 

[cercamon]

Much appreciated Sive for your kindness and level of detail! This is a fascinating learning experience.
I'll review in my journal how I've managed the entry and exit on some past trades with similar conditions of the Kibby.