Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, February 18 - 22, 2019

The only problem then would be the stops below 1.12

Yes, stops could make some acceleration to 1.1150-1.1185 zone, but that does not mean price will stay there for long :) I am still not guessing how low red wave 5 can go if we have not see it already. if my vision is correct, price will recover slowly, bounce from lows and then make acceleration to upside.
 
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Update on EUR. Short term view.

15 min chart.

EURUSDkM15.png


How to trade this?

Sell entry zone 1.1340-1.1350, SL1=1.1372, SL2=1.1410, TP zone = 1.1296-1.1318
 
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Morning guys,

So yesterday upside target has been hit. EUR indeed has made final run to daily OP right from nearest 3/8 Fib support.

eur_d_21_02_19.png


But, as a result, EUR now stands at Agreement resistance on daily and formed bearish engulfing pattern, which suggests deeper retracement down: on 4H chart:
eur_4h_21_02_19.png


Thus, we're watching for AB-CD action down to OP or XOP, ignoring COP and first Fib support that has been used yesterday already. Fast action to OP could mean that price will proceed to XOP target.
eur_1h_21_02_19.png


To be honest guys, I will not be surprised, if we will see 1.12 breakout and downside trend continuation. Not everybody read our weekly report, but there we've discussed very important factor for price of the EUR - political tension that slow but becoming stronger between EU and US. US has strong controlling tools over EU economy, but EU wants to follow its own economical policy. This combination brings nothing good to EUR. Two most known subjects - US anit Iran sanctions and North Stream -2. D. Trump yesterday was in Austria, and Austrian chancellor is confirmed that they proceed with North Stream pipe, despite US negative attitude. This tension will continue rising and at the same degree US pressure on EU will increase.
This is the reason why I do not believe in bulltrend any time soon. This is how politics makes impact on long-term trends and global markets.
 
Update on EUR. I want to show alternative scenario which coincides with Sive's grabber. Maybe this recent upside action was only C wave of wave 4. ..

Hi Deltoid, yes, could be the case. Note that the top at 1.1371 can be a wave 3 of a diagonal as well, especially if 1.1320 holds as support (we have a ~38% retracement at 1.1320). This could result in a new top around 1.1380 - 1.1400 I think.
 
Hi Deltoid, yes, could be the case. Note that the top at 1.1371 can be a wave 3 of a diagonal as well, especially if 1.1320 holds as support (we have a ~38% retracement at 1.1320). This could result in a new top around 1.1380 - 1.1400 I think.

Hey, Stag! How are you man? Glad we have agreement on opinion. Yes, that diagonal could unfold too. However, I think we have made top on 1.1371 already. Here is my primary wave count.

15 min chart:

EURUSDkM15.png


How to trade this?

Sell entry in zone = 1.1340-1.1350, TP1 =1.1285, TP2=1.1185, SL1=1.1372, SL2=1.1410
 
Update on EUR.

Price action does not look impulsive, it still looks corrective, which should not be the case if this is indeed wave 3 of red wave 5. Now Stag's diagonal looks more probable to me. I will show you 2 cases how we can make that new higher high.

4H chart: 2 possible scenarios after making higher high.

EURUSDkH4stag.png


1H chart: wave 4 triangle. This looks like the most probable option in my view for now. We see deeper fibs being respected, usual for triangle in wave 4. SL=1.1319

EURUSDkH1triangle.png


15 min chart: wave 4 unfolds as complex ABC. 1.27 extension should hold price from further drop. SL=1.1274.

EURUSDkM15 stag2.png


Thank you, Stag, for bringing up your view. It always helps. .
 
Morning guys,

Despite great volatility yesterday we've moved nowhere. On daily market EUR still stands around the same 1.1360 resistance area forming two side by side doji. Bulls could say - this is good, because market stands tight to resistance, showing just minor 3/8 pullback, while bears could say that EUR can't move higher, so, this is indeed some sellers' pressure exists around. And both sides are right. ;)
But what we should do?
eur_d_22_02_19.png


On 4H chart our 1st engulfing setup is valid as market was not able exceed its top. Second - we've got another pattern of the same kind, which also a bearish grabber:
eur_4h_22_02_19.png


On 1H chart yesterday action was "222" Sell patten as EUR has completed AB-CD action. We have new downside AB-CD, but as OP as XOP mostly stand at the same place.
In current circumstances bears could take short position against the highs, but only with bearish pattern on the back. It just provides minimal insurance for stop moving to breakeven. For example - "222" Sell that we could get around 1.1350.
For bulls it would be better to wait upside breakout. Taking position now assumes risk that overcome phantom advantage of earlier position taking, because if rally will continue, it should be for solid distance up and taking position a bit later, after upside breakout will not make it worse.
eur_1h_22_02_19.png
 
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