Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, June 03 - 07, 2019

[Deltoid88]

Update on EUR. Although we made new high, I think that was only part of wave 4 which I expect to end soon and have shape of triangle. After wave E is completed wave 5 should start challenging 1.1350-1.1370 zone.

1 H chart:

5 MIN chart:

How to trade this?

First position : Long entry in zone = 1.1250-1.1280, SL=1.1243, TP zone = 1.1350-1.1370
Second position : Sell entry in zone = 1.1350-1.1370, SL=1.1450, TP zone = 1.10-1.1070

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

First I want to say, I'm happy with discussion this week - very informative and a lot of activity. Thank you to everybody.

The update that I would like to make today mostly the same as Deltoid - on EUR the only potential pattern that I see is possible reverse H&S on the top. I talked about it in today's video, so if somedody is interested with it - watch the video.

EUR now stands at vital point because bets on the table are too high. Upside breakout could open big upside perspectives... Situation could be resolved on NFP release.

As, EUR situation is covered, we could take a look at GBP today. Although we have bearish view on Cable, with 1.13-1.14 long-term target, now market could get some relief due political changes inside and USD short-term weakness outside

On daily chart GBP stands around OP target and minor 77.6% Fib support area. Setup is mostly tactical:

On 4H chart we easily could recognize potential reverse H&S pattern. Now market forms grabbers around neckline, which suggests some drop - that's particularly what we need here. Our area to watch for is bottom of right arm around 1.2630:

1H chart shows that this is also Agreement with XOP target:

Overall setup is common - potential target is AB=CD, based on head and shoulder, thus, it is short-term setup. Invalidation point - ultimately breakout of the head, but earlier it will be clear if market will not turn up around XOP or show just minor bounce and then keep dropping.

 

[Georget@]

Something is cooking on the USD. I am following the Eastern European currencies and it could be a SG on weekly. This would mean that USD bull trend will continue, also against EUR. I will wait and see.

 

[Stag]

Our short-term bullish expectations has been already met but note, that we have only three waves up completed at 1.1306. As long as prices are trading above 1.1215, a sudden rally may start from nearby levels. This is just a warning that the Euro may hit unexpectedly a new peak building a five wave structure instead...

So my warn became a reality, the Euro hit a new high and our structure turned into a five wave sequence, possibly forming a leading diagonal.

Since leading dagonals are first waves, my focus has switched to a wave 2 (or wave B) correction unfolding off the 1.1309 high. A typical wave 2 is taking the form of a zigzag. Then, a new rally attempt should start either as part of a still unfolding wave 4 correction or a third wave of a new trend (see my longer term scenarios).

While there's no evidence prices can't retrace higher, they would need to exceed 1.1309 to negate my count as modeled. A leading diagonal in the wave one position is typically followed by a deep retracement (even ~80%). So if my count is correct, breaking below 1.1201 would signal wave 2 down underway toward 1.118x - 1.115x.

Though more than three interpretations exist, I stick to this one. Let's see how it develops.

 

[Stag]

Update on EUR. Although we made new high, I think that was only part of wave 4 which I expect to end soon and have shape of triangle. After wave E is completed wave 5 should start challenging 1.1350-1.1370 zone...

Congrats, Deltoid, the Euro followed your plan!

The only thing I can add is the rise can be part of an ending diagonal (forming wave C of an ABC correction). In this case a swift reversal should start from nearby levels (and back below 1.1200).

 

[Georget@]

EURHUF

IF anyone is interested, this pair formed a SG on Monthly so it should give a lot of room to trade. Destination is Yearly Pivot Support.

 

[Deltoid88]

Congrats, Deltoid, the Euro followed your plan!

Thanks, Stag Yes, plan worked perfectly

The only thing I can add is the rise can be part of an ending diagonal (forming wave C of an ABC correction). In this case a swift reversal should start from nearby levels (and back below 1.1200).

Could be, my primary view suggests fall back down. I will share my complete expectations during weekend. Feel free to comment, especially if you disagree with something.

 

[Sive Morten]

EURHUF

IF anyone is interested, this pair formed a SG on Monthly so it should give a lot of room to trade. Destination is Yearly Pivot Support.

Georgeta, it seems that this is second grabber underway, first one is already was formed. Unfortunately I can't trade HUF. I prefer exchange trading, not retail brokers and on domestic exchange we have only major pairs.

 

[Georget@]

Thanks for the reply!
I just posted the HUF for anyone interested. I follow the pair because SE Europe currencies are correlated so I need to know in what currency to keep my savings, USD or EUR. I have just ditched USD. Two days before big drop !
EUR is not very appealing also. For the next year I think I will keep my home currency and seek some yield in bonds.

 

[Sive Morten]

Thanks for the reply!
I just posted the HUF for anyone interested. I follow the pair because SE Europe currencies are correlated so I need to know in what currency to keep my savings, USD or EUR. I have just ditched USD. Two days before big drop !
EUR is not very appealing also. For the next year I think I will keep my home currency and seek some yield in bonds.

Yes, some minor currencies beyond majors could be very attractive now.

Personally I keep in RUB Gov Bonds 4-5 years maturity on average. 8% annually on government bonds, with 3.5-4% inflation. 50% of whole RUB money supply is backed by gold and currency reserves, low international debt...Central Bank will start decrease rate in autumn, so bonds will rise in price.
Besides, RUB is gradually growing to EUR and USD. Currently it is good choice for me.