Forex Signal (Wed, April 21, 04:30 am EST) UK Claimant Count Change

[Crazy Cat]

Hi there

On Wednesday, April 21st at 04:30 am New York Time we will have UK Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate coming out. The CCC is expected to read -10. Last month it read -32.3.

This is the first time I mention this report, mostly because some people complained I did not do it last month.

I still don't trust this report but last month we had a really nice price action.
The CCC came out at -32.3 versus 6 expected and GBP/USD moved up by by about 150 pips.
Forex news trading currency exchange charts

However, it was not only CCC but also unemployment rate dropped by 0.1 from 7.9 expected to 7.8 (which is good for GBP).

Two months ago we had quite similar deviation. It came out at 23.5 vs -10 but we had a very ugly price action.
Forex news trading currency exchange charts

The thing is two months ago unemployment rate came out as expected.

Three months ago we don't see a huge deviation on CCC but a pretty good deviation of 0.2 on unemployment rate and the price action was very hard to follow:
Forex news trading currency exchange charts

So I am not sure the GBP/USD is going to move because of CCC or because of unemployment rate. Moreover, I am not sure if since last month it became a hot report or it was just a pure luck the price went in the same direction.

I am going to observe both CCC and unemployment rate tomorrow but I will not commit any trade yet. I hope we will have another nice deviation so this would help us to see if this is worthy to trade in the future.

Thanks,
-Crazy Cat

 

[ncnc]

Last months UK claimant

Hi, last months claimant count came out the same time as UK BOE meeting minutes.

The exaggerated move was not just due to the claimant count, although claimant count is still tradeable.

NC

 

[Protacio]

Might be a dumb question and out of place but how do we trade your signals? Are we supposed to trade them immediatly after receiving the signal and hold till the date you give us, or are we supposed to trade the date you give us ex: "On Wednesday, April 21st at 04:30 am New York Time we will have UK Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate coming out."

 

[West Coast Pips]

Might be a dumb question and out of place but how do we trade your signals? Are we supposed to trade them immediatly after receiving the signal and hold till the date you give us, or are we supposed to trade the date you give us ex: "On Wednesday, April 21st at 04:30 am New York Time we will have UK Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate coming out."

You can do one of 2 things:

1. If the deviation is a good one, you can look to get in on a retracement. I find this rather risky and several news releases do not even retrace after data comes out.

2. You need a piece of software that gives you the news data the moment it comes out. I am using something called Secret New Weapon. Google it and give it a try.

 

[Boko Maru]

Hi there

On Wednesday, April 21st at 04:30 am New York Time we will have UK Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate coming out. The CCC is expected to read -10. Last month it read -32.3.

This is the first time I mention this report, mostly because some people complained I did not do it last month.

I still don't trust this report but last month we had a really nice price action.

Just my 2 cents, but as Crazy Cat alluded to and based on history, this is a very unreliable release. Some huge deviations with very small moves, then tiny deviations with huge moves. Very difficult to see any real pattern. It might make a great move, but it probably won't be because of CCC either way.

Keep in mind (as others have mentioned), that this release almost always comes out with the BOE Minutes. It's likely that the moves (both small and large) have much more to do with the BOE Minutes and commentary than CCC. Very risky with SNW I think.

One method that can work is kind of a "half straddle." Meaning, pick a direction before the release, buy or sell (just guess), and setup a pending/stop order about 15-20 pips from market price. If price moves your way, you'll catch a few pips. If not, it will just be a no trade. I definitely don't recommend straddling both directions however, but to each his own...the above method has worked for me on several occasions when I've been unsure about a report's impact on price.

 

[Teodor Jackson]

You know, the biggest problem with trading UK news it the market expectations driving prices far ahead of schedule.
It's quite often the news is already in prices by the release time.
In effect better than expected is not enough to move the overbought market one step further.
On anther side, disappointing data can create a real waterfall...

 

[Pharaoh]

Might be a dumb question and out of place but how do we trade your signals? Are we supposed to trade them immediatly after receiving the signal and hold till the date you give us, or are we supposed to trade the date you give us ex: "On Wednesday, April 21st at 04:30 am New York Time we will have UK Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate coming out."

The signals are given 24 hours in advance. Unless you've stolen my Forex Magic 8 Ball (TM, Pat. Pending), it would be a little hard to trade immediately after getting the signal.


This should help:

https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/fore...w-trade-fpas-forex-daily-trading-signals.html

It's got several methods you can use.

 

[koco]

Why not straddling?

Just my 2 cents, but as Crazy Cat alluded to and based on history, this is a very unreliable release. Some huge deviations with very small moves, then tiny deviations with huge moves. Very difficult to see any real pattern. It might make a great move, but it probably won't be because of CCC either way.

Keep in mind (as others have mentioned), that this release almost always comes out with the BOE Minutes. It's likely that the moves (both small and large) have much more to do with the BOE Minutes and commentary than CCC. Very risky with SNW I think.

One method that can work is kind of a "half straddle." Meaning, pick a direction before the release, buy or sell (just guess), and setup a pending/stop order about 15-20 pips from market price. If price moves your way, you'll catch a few pips. If not, it will just be a no trade. I definitely don't recommend straddling both directions however, but to each his own...the above method has worked for me on several occasions when I've been unsure about a report's impact on price.

Hello Boko,

I was wondering why you don't fully straddle the news? I don't see a reason why to set the buy stop order just in one direction and left the opposite one blank. Am I missing something? Please, explain. Thank you.

 

[kheme]

yea... i would like some input on this as well

Hello Boko,

I was wondering why you don't fully straddle the news? I don't see a reason why to set the buy stop order just in one direction and left the opposite one blank. Am I missing something? Please, explain. Thank you.

yea... i would like some input on this as well

 

[Boko Maru]

yea... i would like some input on this as well

Really it's just a matter of reducing risk and it's what I'm comfortable with. Typically at this release GU will either take off in one direction, or start to whipsaw around a lot. If it takes off in my direction, I'll do well; if not a it's no trade. If it whipsaws, I have a much better chance of either canceling the order, or exiting quickly before too much damage is done if I do get filled.

If I'm straddling both ways and get caught in a whipsaw where both orders get filled, it's almost a sure thing I'll lose money. I use an MT4 broker for this release, and trying to click and manage 2 orders on MT4 at the same time would be difficult. So, I'm fine just picking one direction, and managing the position as I see fit if it fills.

Tonight for instance, I got filled long at 1.5415. I was almost instantly up 9 pips, then very quickly down 25; I ended up exiting the position for a loss of 4.5 pips total. I can live with that, as the price action tonight was exactly the kind I didn't want, yet I still ended up with only a small loss.

Again, just my preference, and as I said to each his own, and others may be more comfortable straddling both ways. If there was a more clear indication of how price would react to the numbers, I'd just setup SNW, but since right now this release is not very clear re. how it affects price, this kind of "half straddle" was the next best thing in my opinion...

Hope you guys made some pips...