Sir Pipsalot's Friday Market Update 08-13-2010

[Sir Pipsalot]

Hey folks,

As promised, today's update comes ahead of the NY session instead of the typical release ahead of the European session.

In yesterday's signal, I talked extensively about trends with the Euro and stocks. I don't have a whole lot more to add to that today. I expect the EUR/USD to work lower towards the 1.2420 - 1.2610 range (now 1.2837within the next few days, so any decent 100+ pip bounces are likely good selling opportunities.

In stocks, we've conosolidated a bit after Wednesday's huge drop. If we can continue to retrace a bit more higher, I'd be up for selling a bit more around 1100 with a 30 point SL/TP.

In news Friday, after researching a bit, it looked like German GDP really wasn't worth trading, and that did turn out to be the case earlier this morning. We have a few reports clustered into the NY session to discuss though:

0830 US Core Retail Sales (ex autos) and Core CPI (ex food/energy) (0.3% RS, and 0.1% CPI expected) - We usually don't get these two released at the same time, and while that will likely complicate the situation, it could also make a move much more powerful if the numbers agree with each other. Even if these two numbers agree though, look out for conflicts with Headline versions of both just in case.
--If US Retail Sales Ex Autos comes out at 1.0% or higher or CPI Ex Food & Energy comes out at 0.3% or higher and neither number comes in below expectations -- USD/JPY should rally 40-50 pips over 5-15 minutes.
--If US Retail Sales Ex Autos comes out at -0.4% or lower, or CPI Ex Food & Energy comes out at -0.1% or lower and neither number comes in above expectations -- USD/JPY should sell off 40-50 pips over 5-15 minutes.

0955 University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (69.0 expected) - This news is usually good for a 30 pip or sometimes even 40 pip move that usually doesn't shoot all the way there in the first minute. This can give you a chance to get in within 10 pips of prerelease in that first minute or so and hold on for a 20+ pip gain over the next 5-15 minutes.
If it comes out at 75 or higher (+6 deviation), USD/JPY should rally 30 pips
If it comes out at 63 or lower (-6 deviation), USD/JPY should drop 30 pips

That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com

To our success!
Sir Pipsalot

 

[Gumrai]

email notifications

Hello,
is there something wrong that holds up the email notifications of new threads here?
The email arrived in my Inbox advising me of this new thread at 8AM (UK time) on Saturday morning. That's 10 hours after the market has closed for the weekend!
I find your posts very interesting and useful, but notifications often arrive late, but not usually this late

 

[Sir Pipsalot]

That's odd... I posted the signal at 5am EST, about 3 hours before the NY session Friday. I'm not quite sure how the email notifications work here... maybe they only send them out once a day?

I didn't realize that was an issue here. I'll work with Crazy Cat and the Assistant Moderator here to come up with a better solution so you guys have some options to get email notifications when I post a new signal.

 

[Recruit Dorell]

I have never been able to receive notification by email.
Thanks
Max

 

[Gumrai]

That's odd... I posted the signal at 5am EST, about 3 hours before the NY session Friday. I'm not quite sure how the email notifications work here... maybe they only send them out once a day?

I didn't realize that was an issue here. I'll work with Crazy Cat and the Assistant Moderator here to come up with a better solution so you guys have some options to get email notifications when I post a new signal.

If you open the main forum page for this section (the one that lists all the daily threads) and click on Forum Tools - Subscribe to this Forum, you get the option for receiving Daily updates by email, but no option for immediate notification.

These daily updates, it seems are sent out about 7AM UK time which is about 2AM New York time. I think that if you post a new thread at 5AM NY time, you have missed the window and the notifications will go out about 21 hours after you post.


Once you have viewed the individual daily thread, you can click on Thread Tools - Subscribe to this Thread, you DO have the option to receive instant notification of any replies

Enabling instant email notification of new threads would be such a good idea