Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, January 09 - 13, 2023
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Sive Morten
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Morning guys,
So, EUR has touched the level that we've specified, but unfortunately we haven't got the retracement before the upside action. As we've estimated in weekend - position taking was unreasonable without retracement. So, no entry has happened...
Now it is a bit difficult to estimate upside targets as we do not have suitable extensions. Thus, let's use retracement extensions. First one stands around 1.0805 and next one @1.0893. Currently it would be better to not build far-going plans. Upside action seems a bit fragile. Because we do not see the new tops on GBP, NZD, AUD. While JPY starts forming something like reverse H&S pattern... Thus, upside action could be short term.
Currently we could consider only bullish scenarios, and I would watch for ~ 1.06 area. Here, on 4H chart we see widening triangle, but also, it might be reverse H&S pattern. From that standpoint - 1.06 is somewhere around the right arm's bottom. Upside action stands strong, so, we could watch for this scenario by far...
So, EUR has touched the level that we've specified, but unfortunately we haven't got the retracement before the upside action. As we've estimated in weekend - position taking was unreasonable without retracement. So, no entry has happened...
Now it is a bit difficult to estimate upside targets as we do not have suitable extensions. Thus, let's use retracement extensions. First one stands around 1.0805 and next one @1.0893. Currently it would be better to not build far-going plans. Upside action seems a bit fragile. Because we do not see the new tops on GBP, NZD, AUD. While JPY starts forming something like reverse H&S pattern... Thus, upside action could be short term.
Currently we could consider only bullish scenarios, and I would watch for ~ 1.06 area. Here, on 4H chart we see widening triangle, but also, it might be reverse H&S pattern. From that standpoint - 1.06 is somewhere around the right arm's bottom. Upside action stands strong, so, we could watch for this scenario by far...
RahmanSL
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Yes, the situation in Europe is aptly stated by Crédit Agricole CIB Research:
“We are skeptical that the recent EUR/USD gains can continue. In particular, we worry that investors risk becoming complacent about the negative impact from the European energy crisis and the ECB tightening on the Eurozone growth outlook. They may also be too confident in the growth-positive impact from the post-Covid reopening of the Chinese economy.
We think that investors are underestimating the Fed’s hawkish resolve in the face of a looming US recession. In turn, a more hawkish-than-expected FOMC can be detrimental for risk sentiment in a boost for the USD vs the EUR.
We note that the EUR is the biggest market long in G10 FX at present while EUR/USD is trading at a premium relative to its short-term fair value of 1.05.”
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
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Morning guys,
It is not too many things to say now - all currencies stand flat, as nobody wants to make sharp moves before data release. Thus, on EUR picture is the same. Market holds bullish context by far. Maybe CPI will change it but for now we see tight consolidation on 4H chart right under major 1.0750 resistance area. Usually this is a sign of coming breakout attempt. Market is building an energy for challenge. All this stuff is accompanied with bullish dynamic pressure, especially on 1H chart:
On 1H it also minor butterfly could be formed and lead market to complete nearest daily 1.0805 target:
Currently we do not consider any bearish positions by far. For long entry you have two options - either to wait for deeper pullback and CPI release, or, to take position inside the consolidation and go through CPI report tomorrow.
It is not too many things to say now - all currencies stand flat, as nobody wants to make sharp moves before data release. Thus, on EUR picture is the same. Market holds bullish context by far. Maybe CPI will change it but for now we see tight consolidation on 4H chart right under major 1.0750 resistance area. Usually this is a sign of coming breakout attempt. Market is building an energy for challenge. All this stuff is accompanied with bullish dynamic pressure, especially on 1H chart:
On 1H it also minor butterfly could be formed and lead market to complete nearest daily 1.0805 target:
Currently we do not consider any bearish positions by far. For long entry you have two options - either to wait for deeper pullback and CPI release, or, to take position inside the consolidation and go through CPI report tomorrow.
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
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Morning everybody,
No big shifts by far. Markets are becoming nervous ahead of CPI numbers. Gold shows solid volatility, BTC rallies up, while GBP, AUD and JPY show opposite performance. Pressure is growing.
Speaking on EUR - market still can't pass through 1.0750 weekly K-resistance. So I would like that it is still in the game. And from that standpoint I wouldn't consider taking the new long position, if only you would like to bet on CPI number.
For the bears - it is also tricky moment. I prefer to wait for clear reversal pattern. For instance, it is possible to get later 1.27 H&S on daily chart, so it is also no needs to hurry, I suppose. Once again if you only would like to catch the precise reversal point and ready to go through CPI doom&gloom.
On 1H chart market looks heavy and choppy, but still is trying to complete the butterfly. So, if you have longs - you could keep it, just tight stops, at least to breakeven. But for the new position taking , whatever direction, it makes sense to wait for data release, as situation could change drastically. I have some bad feeling about this rally and DAX uncontrolled upside action. Market is undervalued hawkish Fed position... or just big bulk of liquidity was injected recently that now is absorbing... difficult to say:
No big shifts by far. Markets are becoming nervous ahead of CPI numbers. Gold shows solid volatility, BTC rallies up, while GBP, AUD and JPY show opposite performance. Pressure is growing.
Speaking on EUR - market still can't pass through 1.0750 weekly K-resistance. So I would like that it is still in the game. And from that standpoint I wouldn't consider taking the new long position, if only you would like to bet on CPI number.
For the bears - it is also tricky moment. I prefer to wait for clear reversal pattern. For instance, it is possible to get later 1.27 H&S on daily chart, so it is also no needs to hurry, I suppose. Once again if you only would like to catch the precise reversal point and ready to go through CPI doom&gloom.
On 1H chart market looks heavy and choppy, but still is trying to complete the butterfly. So, if you have longs - you could keep it, just tight stops, at least to breakeven. But for the new position taking , whatever direction, it makes sense to wait for data release, as situation could change drastically. I have some bad feeling about this rally and DAX uncontrolled upside action. Market is undervalued hawkish Fed position... or just big bulk of liquidity was injected recently that now is absorbing... difficult to say:
Benett 182
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About DAX, and other Indexes, if the pace will continue, we are facing new highs. But I'm afraid to take a new long position. The markets seem so overvalued. Always expecting a reversal. But nothing happened in a few months. Interest rates going higher, and markets are following. But we are expecting they will reverse. Or at least I'm expect to go south
or I'm completely wrong
or I'm completely wrong
RahmanSL
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EUR/USD is way passed the butterfly wing and it's still holding that 1.08xxx levels.
Only thing I can think of is that the Europeans are making money from the forex market to make payrolls. Once they are done, then it's the American's turn to make money for their payrolls, in which case, the EUR/USD will tank.
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
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You're not wrong. We expect reversal closer to the end of the Spring - check our recent Gold market analysis. There we have explained this.About DAX, and other Indexes, if the pace will continue, we are facing new highs. But I'm afraid to take a new long position. The markets seem so overvalued. Always expecting a reversal. But nothing happened in a few months. Interest rates going higher, and markets are following. But we are expecting they will reverse. Or at least I'm expect to go south
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,611
Morning guys,
So, we've got it - spot on 6.5% CPI. Markets are celebrating, although our suggestion that it is not everything so cloudless. We take a look on the numbers in our weekly report as usual, but I give you a hint - nominal CPI converge core CPI. You could think what does it mean.
Meantime, EUR has passed through 1.0805 target and next one that could be reached today is 1.0893. 1.0750 weekly K-area has been broken. For today 1.09 seems enough. Potentially, as markets will have 2+ weeks until Fed meeting, they could keep going with momentum. Our next long-term strong resistance is 1.1050-1.11 area - just look at monthly chart in our weekly report:
It is not many things to do now, but if you would like to make short-term trade - you could consider these Fib support levels for position taking with 1.0895 daily target. Market has to stay outside triangle and above 1.0750 area, because this is former K-resistance. So, it should not return back to keep bullish context here. That's why it makes no sense to consider deeper standing levels, at least today:
So, we've got it - spot on 6.5% CPI. Markets are celebrating, although our suggestion that it is not everything so cloudless. We take a look on the numbers in our weekly report as usual, but I give you a hint - nominal CPI converge core CPI. You could think what does it mean.
Meantime, EUR has passed through 1.0805 target and next one that could be reached today is 1.0893. 1.0750 weekly K-area has been broken. For today 1.09 seems enough. Potentially, as markets will have 2+ weeks until Fed meeting, they could keep going with momentum. Our next long-term strong resistance is 1.1050-1.11 area - just look at monthly chart in our weekly report:
It is not many things to do now, but if you would like to make short-term trade - you could consider these Fib support levels for position taking with 1.0895 daily target. Market has to stay outside triangle and above 1.0750 area, because this is former K-resistance. So, it should not return back to keep bullish context here. That's why it makes no sense to consider deeper standing levels, at least today:
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