Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 473
We’ll be getting the Canadian Employment Change release number tomorrow, here is the forecast:
7:00am (NY TIme) CA Employment Change Forecast 10K Previous 35.8K
(Unemployment Rate 8.1%)
ACTION: USDCAD BUY -15K SELL 35K
The Trade Plan
Canadian Employment Change report will be release at 7:00am sharp today, and it's the only high impact tradable news releases today. What I am looking for is a minimum deviation of around 25K, or the difference between the Forecast number (10K) versus the actual release number; therefore if we get a positive 35K of release, we should see demand for the CAD rise, therefore we should SELL USD/CAD; however, if we get a negative number, such as -15K or worse, we should see some weakness in the CAD, and that will be my cue to BUY USD/CAD pair.
I’ll also pay close attention to the unemployment rate, which stands at 8.1%, from last month’s release. As long as this number does not conflict with the Employment Changes, we should follow the direction of the news release. If we get a conflict, such as better Employment Changes but higher Unemployment Rate, then we’ll need to look at the context of the market before take the trade.
I'll be looking to trade this release using my after-news Retracement Method, for more information:
Henry's News Trading Method.
The Market
USDCAD has been on a downward trend since the first of September following his Jackson Hole speech signaling further stimulus or large scale asset purchases by the Feds, but the gains in the loonie have not been as exaggerated compared to other majors due to the close trade relations with the U.S.
A closer look into yesterday's sharp decline in USDCAD at 1.0060 followed by a sharp retracement back to the 1.0210 level shows buyers are prepared to trade around parity levels, if we do get a strong Employment number, this would be the level to watch out for.
Additional Thoughts
USD/CAD is a slow moving currency pair, it will move on a strong deviation, but retracement is usually non-existent or very small... Therefore, if we get a strong release, especially when it is going with the pre-market trend, a sooner than later entry should add more pips to your account. Expect to see a spike down --> stall ---> another spike down...
Pre-news Considerations
USD/CAD should strengthen before the release, I'd be looking to SELL USDCAD at resistance areas.
DEFINITION
“Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises.”
Historical Chart & Data for CA Employment Change
Thanks,
7:00am (NY TIme) CA Employment Change Forecast 10K Previous 35.8K
(Unemployment Rate 8.1%)
ACTION: USDCAD BUY -15K SELL 35K
The Trade Plan
Canadian Employment Change report will be release at 7:00am sharp today, and it's the only high impact tradable news releases today. What I am looking for is a minimum deviation of around 25K, or the difference between the Forecast number (10K) versus the actual release number; therefore if we get a positive 35K of release, we should see demand for the CAD rise, therefore we should SELL USD/CAD; however, if we get a negative number, such as -15K or worse, we should see some weakness in the CAD, and that will be my cue to BUY USD/CAD pair.
I’ll also pay close attention to the unemployment rate, which stands at 8.1%, from last month’s release. As long as this number does not conflict with the Employment Changes, we should follow the direction of the news release. If we get a conflict, such as better Employment Changes but higher Unemployment Rate, then we’ll need to look at the context of the market before take the trade.
I'll be looking to trade this release using my after-news Retracement Method, for more information:
Henry's News Trading Method.
The Market
USDCAD has been on a downward trend since the first of September following his Jackson Hole speech signaling further stimulus or large scale asset purchases by the Feds, but the gains in the loonie have not been as exaggerated compared to other majors due to the close trade relations with the U.S.
A closer look into yesterday's sharp decline in USDCAD at 1.0060 followed by a sharp retracement back to the 1.0210 level shows buyers are prepared to trade around parity levels, if we do get a strong Employment number, this would be the level to watch out for.
Additional Thoughts
USD/CAD is a slow moving currency pair, it will move on a strong deviation, but retracement is usually non-existent or very small... Therefore, if we get a strong release, especially when it is going with the pre-market trend, a sooner than later entry should add more pips to your account. Expect to see a spike down --> stall ---> another spike down...
Pre-news Considerations
USD/CAD should strengthen before the release, I'd be looking to SELL USDCAD at resistance areas.
DEFINITION
“Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises.”
Historical Chart & Data for CA Employment Change
Thanks,
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