Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 473
Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator and it’s usually released during early month. Traders pay attention to this release for surprises as this survey may help to shape the general trend of the market. Here is the forecast:
5:30am (NY Time) UK Manufacturing PMI Forecast 53.2 Previous 53.4
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 55.5 SELL 51.0
The Trade Plan
We are looking for a tradable deviation (or the difference between the forecast figure and the actual release figure) of around 2.0, and because this is a leading indicator and its impact may hint that the future trend of other economic indicators (such as inventory, employment, retail sales, etc..) , therefore market should react to this release with volatility if we get our deviation.
We will be looking to BUY GBP/USD if we get a 55.5 or better, or looking to SELL GBP/USD if we get a 51.0 or worse, we’ll be using the Retracement Trading Method to trade this release. For more information, read:
Henry's News Trading Method
The Market
GBP is currently looking pretty well supported after the Prelim GDP q/q release last week. As a matter of fact, there is now very little expectation for any kind of easing policy from BOE, given the stellar figure of 3rd quarter GDP doubling market expectation.
I'd expect further strength in the GBP if we get a strong release. On a weak release, as long as it maintains above 50, I think market will still be very supportive for the Sterling.
Additional Thoughts
We can expect GBP/USD to move 50 pips within the hour if our tradable figures are hit. With recent market uncertainties, we should stay out of the market if we get an inline with expectation release.
Pre-news Considerations
There should be no pre-news for this release.
DEFINITION
“UK Manufacturing PMI is a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector on various economic activities, including inventory, employment, orders, etc… A higher than 50 reading means expansion, or a less than 50 reading means contraction.”
Historical Chart & Data For UK Manufacturing PMI
Thanks,
5:30am (NY Time) UK Manufacturing PMI Forecast 53.2 Previous 53.4
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 55.5 SELL 51.0
The Trade Plan
We are looking for a tradable deviation (or the difference between the forecast figure and the actual release figure) of around 2.0, and because this is a leading indicator and its impact may hint that the future trend of other economic indicators (such as inventory, employment, retail sales, etc..) , therefore market should react to this release with volatility if we get our deviation.
We will be looking to BUY GBP/USD if we get a 55.5 or better, or looking to SELL GBP/USD if we get a 51.0 or worse, we’ll be using the Retracement Trading Method to trade this release. For more information, read:
Henry's News Trading Method
The Market
GBP is currently looking pretty well supported after the Prelim GDP q/q release last week. As a matter of fact, there is now very little expectation for any kind of easing policy from BOE, given the stellar figure of 3rd quarter GDP doubling market expectation.
I'd expect further strength in the GBP if we get a strong release. On a weak release, as long as it maintains above 50, I think market will still be very supportive for the Sterling.
Additional Thoughts
We can expect GBP/USD to move 50 pips within the hour if our tradable figures are hit. With recent market uncertainties, we should stay out of the market if we get an inline with expectation release.
Pre-news Considerations
There should be no pre-news for this release.
DEFINITION
“UK Manufacturing PMI is a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector on various economic activities, including inventory, employment, orders, etc… A higher than 50 reading means expansion, or a less than 50 reading means contraction.”
Historical Chart & Data For UK Manufacturing PMI
Thanks,
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