EUR/USD Daily Video, January 14, 2011

[Sive Morten]

Hello everybody,
market has reached daily overbought and come very close to Confluence resistance. So, if you're bullish - it's time to think about closing a part of position, or tight stops.
Also there is a context for 4-hour B&B Buy scalp trade:





portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.

 

[ALF]

1,3425 area has broken

Hi Sive,

You did not suggest any scenario when/if this strong area of resistence could be broken.

Any view on the current situation?

Thanks.

 

[Adam Wyn-Roberts]

Scalp Trade

Thanks a lot Sive,

I just scalped a cool 50 pips off this line - bought at 1.390 (just below resistance) and closed at 1.3444 after it broke through

It took me just under an half of an hour (or less) to make this money

see: AdamFx42's Profile | Myfxbook

Great work!

p.s. I have put in a sell order on my demo account - because I dare not do it with real cash - but it seems to be working, the resistance level holds

With much Respect,

AdamFx42

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,

You did not suggest any scenario when/if this strong area of resistence could be broken.

Any view on the current situation?

Thanks.

Hi Alf,
Well, I didn't tell about it, because market should show something, that makes me thing that this area could be broken. And when I've made a research, market has not even reach it. This is first point.
Second, why you've decided that it has been broken? The area is not just 1 pip, say 1.3425. this is a range and to estimate that it has been broken, you should wait for some clear patterns or something.
Now I can see, that possibly there is a H&S pattern forming on hourly chart.
Anyway I prefer not to guessing, but look for patterns and clear signals...

 

[erich]

situation

hi Alf,
Sive explained to watch for the level of strong resitance:
daily R1 and monthly pivot at about 1,3450

probability to see higher levels is less than 50% or much more deeper, who knows, but probability to see 0,618% retracement from daily pivot or weekly R1 is more than 50% and worth for a scalp trade.

If you are bullish then put a buy stop above the daily R1, but the stop is the problem. It is unlikely that a tight stop is not triggered at this level.

High heels - deep fall

nice day,
Erich

 

[ALF]

Hi Alf,
Well, I didn't tell about it, because market should show something, that makes me thing that this area could be broken. And when I've made a research, market has not even reach it. This is first point.
Second, why you've decided that it has been broken? The area is not just 1 pip, say 1.3425. this is a range and to estimate that it has been broken, you should wait for some clear patterns or something.
Now I can see, that possibly there is a H&S pattern forming on hourly chart.
Anyway I prefer not to guessing, but look for patterns and clear signals...

Hi Sive

Thanks for your comments on the current situation.

I am a strong follower of your vision on the market’s moves and was confused about that more then 30 pips move above the area of strong resistance.

My feeling was that a lot of stops had been triggered above 1.3420. That is way I was curious about your opinion if that could change your analysis for the current market view.

Thanks again for your valuable support and have a nice weekend.

Alf

 

[davedubai]

EUR USD sell signal

Hello everybody,
market has reached daily overbought and come very close to Confluence resistance. So, if you're bullish - it's time to think about closing a part of position, or tight stops.
Also there is a context for 4-hour B&B Buy scalp trade:





portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.

Dear Mr. Sive ,

Thanks for the excellent training. As suggested I figure that the DRPO sell in 30 min charts with double close below 3/3 sma just happened and also the number of bars between two close are 6 and a close above on a spike above 3/3. I see if this hour the close below 1.3360 will be also DRPO sell in hourly charts too.

Thanks.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive

Thanks for your comments on the current situation.

I am a strong follower of your vision on the market’s moves and was confused about that more then 30 pips move above the area of strong resistance.

My feeling was that a lot of stops had been triggered above 1.3420. That is way I was curious about your opinion if that could change your analysis for the current market view.

Thanks again for your valuable support and have a nice weekend.

Alf

After your comments I clearer understand your question. Look, the Confluence resistance has made by Daily time frame. You just know that 1.3420-1.3440 (At spot Forex) is an area of resistance. Today's high was precisely at upper border.
Anyway, you should use the same time frame, to say that this area is broken, because to gugde how market response in this area demands at least 1-2 days. Just look at current price action! - I see gravestone doji that is also a W&R of previous highs. May be situation will change, who knows. But currently this is not way of breakout that I would like to see as breakout. For me current situation is bearish.
But, I need to see - how market will close today/week. How it response in general on this area...
It works like follows - you know in advance that strong resistance just above the market, but you do not sell Blindly, you wait for confirmation from the market. You are in great advantage, because you know ahead of time what to watch for. AS you see it - say, hourly H&S, you pull the trigger, because only now you know where is your risk, and where is your profit. Other words - you trade particular pattern in context of daily resistance.
IF you do not see any sell signals - you just do not Sell.

 

[mimar sinan]

thanks for the info Sive !

as we can expect many people have been selling EUR while it was still going to peak today, and the deal has been held pver night since 14-1 , so its bearish from now on, watch the news for some important information till mid next week, many rates M/M's are getting out that will be reasons into deals, GBP also has some movement.

 

[adekunle ajaponna]

di napoli oscillator predictor

hi mr. sive morten,
i am an addicted follower of your daily trend analysis with fantastic results over the times.
now i have been trained and still learning lots of your technical approach to the market trend.
i have rest and peace of mind with your strategies.
but one thing i truely respect and desire to have is the di napoli oscillator preditor on my platform mt4.
how do i go about this? how much does it cost to acquire it?
special thanks if i am duely helped.
God bless you, sir.