Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 473
Today’s Retail Sales number from UK will be widely watched as this is a high impact yet tradable report. Here is the forecast for this release:
4:30am (NY Time) Forecast 0.6% Previous -0.8%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 1.0% SELL 0.0%
The Trade Plan
Retail Sales by definition is a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels. A higher release is generally good for the economy, and better for it’s currency; a lower release is considered as negative for the economy and not good for it’s currency.
Our tradable deviation or surprise factor for UK Retail Sales is 0.6% to BUY or SELL. If our deviation is hit, we can expect the market to move at least 50 pips within the hour, with a historical accuracy of 72%. We’ll be looking to BUY GBP/USD if we get a 1.0% or better release, and SELL GBP/USD if we get a 0.0% or worse.
We'll be looking for an after-news retracement trade for this release. For more information on my trading methods:
Henry's News Trading Methods.
The Market
With the current inflationary pressure in UK on the rise, a better than expected Retail Sales could push Sterling higher above the current resistance levels, therefore I'd definitely be looking out for that.
With BOE under tremendous pressure to contain current inflationary pressure, any positive news will add more pressure for BOE to act soon, therefore a sharp rise in the Retail Sector may give BOE the excuse it needed to move forward with a rate hike, at least that's what some speculators may think.
Additional Thoughts
GBP is possibly heading towards the 1.7000 level in the next few months, therefore it is already a "BUY ONLY" currency in my book. Any negative news will just mean that I'd buy in at a better price.
Pre-news Consideration
There could be a pre-news BUY on GBPUSD as we will be looking at any significant dips during the Asian session for entry.
For historical chart & data for UK Retail Sales
Thanks,
4:30am (NY Time) Forecast 0.6% Previous -0.8%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 1.0% SELL 0.0%
The Trade Plan
Retail Sales by definition is a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels. A higher release is generally good for the economy, and better for it’s currency; a lower release is considered as negative for the economy and not good for it’s currency.
Our tradable deviation or surprise factor for UK Retail Sales is 0.6% to BUY or SELL. If our deviation is hit, we can expect the market to move at least 50 pips within the hour, with a historical accuracy of 72%. We’ll be looking to BUY GBP/USD if we get a 1.0% or better release, and SELL GBP/USD if we get a 0.0% or worse.
We'll be looking for an after-news retracement trade for this release. For more information on my trading methods:
Henry's News Trading Methods.
The Market
With the current inflationary pressure in UK on the rise, a better than expected Retail Sales could push Sterling higher above the current resistance levels, therefore I'd definitely be looking out for that.
With BOE under tremendous pressure to contain current inflationary pressure, any positive news will add more pressure for BOE to act soon, therefore a sharp rise in the Retail Sector may give BOE the excuse it needed to move forward with a rate hike, at least that's what some speculators may think.
Additional Thoughts
GBP is possibly heading towards the 1.7000 level in the next few months, therefore it is already a "BUY ONLY" currency in my book. Any negative news will just mean that I'd buy in at a better price.
Pre-news Consideration
There could be a pre-news BUY on GBPUSD as we will be looking at any significant dips during the Asian session for entry.
For historical chart & data for UK Retail Sales
Thanks,
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