Forex Signal (Friday August 12, 2011 - 8:30AM NY Time, EDT) - US Core Retail Sales

[Stavro D'Amore]

US Core Retail Sales
Forecast 0.2%
Previous 0.0%
Pair to trade: USD/JPY and EUR/USD

Triggers we need: BUY USD/JPY 0.4
BUY EUR/USD -0.4

Economical Impact: Critical
Typical Result: Good for currency
Occurrence: Released monthly, about 10 days after the month ends


About our Triggers:
US Core Retail Sales is forecasted to arrive at 0.2%. We are looking for a deviation on this trade of 0.6% to enter a LONG position on USDJPY and -0.4% to enter LONG position on EUR/USD.
Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see about 45pips on the initial spike for both pairs that we are trading.

What is it?
The Core Retail Sales is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in the US, excluding auto.

Why does the market care?
Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the US economy.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Method I use to trade this:
Stavro D’Amore Trading Method
Please be diligent trading this report as the Retail Sales figures are also out; however I do not expect the numbers to conflict.

Approximately 5 minutes prior to the news release I will be looking for a short term LONG position in EUR/USD.
I would be out of this LONG trade 2 minutes before the actual release, or to avoid any spreads that should widen.

I will look for a 30-50% retracement in the original spike before entering a trade; I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at entry price. My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame.

I do recommend spike trading as an option when there is great uncertainty in the markets; also the liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker.

Historical Chart and Data for US Core Retail Sales

All the best

Stavro D’Amore

 

[Aldo Colombo]

Triggers

Hi Stavro,
I´m confused at this news' triggers, maybe it´s not critical because we're talking about estimations, but, being forecast 0,2, I believe deviation is to be taken from this number, ok? Let´s call "trigger" the absolute number of the actual value of indicator that must be met, and "deviation" the difference between this and the forecast. Then, supposing absolute value of deviation is the same upwards or downwards (0,4%), we have:
Triggers:
US Core Retail Sales m/m=0,6% to enter a LONG position on USDJPY
US Core Retail Sales m/m=-0.2% to enter LONG position on EUR/USD

Please correct me if I´m wrong. I think having this clear must be specially helpful for a beginner like me. ¿Do exact numbers care here? ¿Or is - say 0,59 instead of 0,6 - to be considered a met trigger?
Hope not bothering you with these matters. Thank you

 

[adman]

Deviation of 0.6 is +0.8 02 -0.4

Aldo (and Stavro)--- Stavro says he's using a standard deviation of 0.6. That meakes buy USD at 0.8 and buy EUR at -0.4, since forecast is 0.2.

 

[Yangwoo Park]

Hello, Stavro

What kind of auto clicker product do you use?

 

[1954]

Hello Starvo,

Can you provide some names of ECN brokers ? Thanks

There are many ECN brokers, I will not name any to promote them all you have to do is google them.

 

[Stavro D'Amore]

Hi Stavro,
I´m confused at this news' triggers, maybe it´s not critical because we're talking about estimations, but, being forecast 0,2, I believe deviation is to be taken from this number, ok? Let´s call "trigger" the absolute number of the actual value of indicator that must be met, and "deviation" the difference between this and the forecast. Then, supposing absolute value of deviation is the same upwards or downwards (0,4%), we have:
Triggers:
US Core Retail Sales m/m=0,6% to enter a LONG position on USDJPY
US Core Retail Sales m/m=-0.2% to enter LONG position on EUR/USD

Please correct me if I´m wrong. I think having this clear must be specially helpful for a beginner like me. ¿Do exact numbers care here? ¿Or is - say 0,59 instead of 0,6 - to be considered a met trigger?
Hope not bothering you with these matters. Thank you

No triggers have to bi hit for a spike trade, if there not hit we can go for retracement if there is good movement

 

[Stavro D'Amore]

Hello, Stavro

What kind of auto clicker product do you use?

The product i use, is in testing at the momment and its not released yet when it becomes available most likely late septemeber i will let you all know.

 

[Anthonia Taiwo]

Thank you we look forward to the auto clicker because most times the spike is long gone before the news is available.

 

[Aldo Colombo]

Re: Triggers

Aldo (and Stavro)--- Stavro says he's using a standard deviation of 0.6. That meakes buy USD at 0.8 and buy EUR at -0.4, since forecast is 0.2.

That's clear. Thanks

 

[Simon Edwards]

In the AU Employment Change you said :
"Prior to the release (10 mins) I will be looking for a short term LONG position in AUD/USD and I would be out of this LONG trade 3 minutes before the actual release or to avoid any spreads that should widen."

For this release you say :

"Approximately 5 minutes prior to the news release I will be looking for a short term LONG position in EUR/USD.
I would be out of this LONG trade 2 minutes before the actual release, or to avoid any spreads that should widen."

Is there a reason for the different timings or is it a typo ?