Forex Signal (Wed August 31, 2011 – 8:15am EDT) – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

Stavro D'Amore

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
547
Hello members,

Today i will like to share the following trade plan.

ADP Non- Farm Employment change
Forecast 102k
Previous 114K
Pair to trade: USD/JPY

Numbers we need:
BUY USD/JPY 147K
SELL USD/JPY 57K

Economical Impact: High
Typical Result: Good for Currency
Occurrence: About 2 days after the month ends
Spike Probability: Good, we can see 40 pips on initial spike

About our Triggers:
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change forecasted to arrive at 102K
We are looking for a deviation of 45K either way on this trade.
If we get 147 or better I will look to enter a SHORT position on USD/JPY and if we get 57K or lower I will go LONG on USD/JPY.
Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see about 40 pips on the initial spike. We have no known conflict for this release. This trade will have a good chance of a 30% retrace on the initial spike

What is it? And why does the market care?
Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change of non-farm private employment, based on a subset of aggregated and anonymous payroll data that represents approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. This release arrives two days before the government-releases employment data. This is a good predictive to the government's non-farm payrolls data. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD,
A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.


Method I use to trade this:
Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

I do recommend spike trading as an option. Liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker. Please use no more than a 15 pip limit order to control slippage.

I will look for a 30% retracement in the original spike before entering. I will be looking at a 5 minute chart. I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at the original spike price.

My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame to analyze this.

Historical Chart and Data for US ADP Non-Farm Change

All the best

Stavro D’Amore
 
Last edited by a moderator:
ADP Non- Farm Employment change

Numbers we need:
BUY USD/JPY 147K
SELL USD/JPY 57K

Below statement contradicts the above indication. plz pacify.

"If we get 147 or better I will look to enter a SHORT position on USD/JPY and if we get 57K or lower I will go LONG on USD/JPY. "
 
If this report triggers with a trigger of 45K you will see the movement just the same if it was triggered at 50K

Thanks

Stavro D'Amore;)
 
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