EUR/USD Daily Video, September 09, 2011

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,
market is closer and closer to our target - low at 1.3811. Be ready to tight stops or even take profit, since 1.3650-1.3760 is strong support area and market should stop somewhere inside it.
If you still have not short position, may be market still will give you the chance to open it and catch last bearish gasp till 1.38 area:



The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.

 

[josiahemmy]

09_09_2011

Hi Commander,

From my analysis yesterday, (on the four-Hour Chart there is an AB=CD pattern forming of A=1.4246, B=1.3971 and C=1.4148 with a 1.00 Extension around 1.3867, that's my favorable position at the moment and market looks to dance around 1.4100 - 1.4060 area, since bears have been very strong on the daily time frame, I strongly feel that the retracement to the upside might not be deeper than 1.4140 area). This has happened but because of the strength of the bears, I modified my take profit position further down than 1.3867. But 1.272 extension of this AB=CD pattern mentioned stands around 1.3790 area. Can I leave my take profit there which is 30 pips lower than the monthly confluence support area, or exactly 1.3760 area?

Thanks commander for your analysis and support.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Commander,

From my analysis yesterday, (on the four-Hour Chart there is an AB=CD pattern forming of A=1.4246, B=1.3971 and C=1.4148 with a 1.00 Extension around 1.3867, that's my favorable position at the moment and market looks to dance around 1.4100 - 1.4060 area, since bears have been very strong on the daily time frame, I strongly feel that the retracement to the upside might not be deeper than 1.4140 area). This has happened but because of the strength of the bears, I modified my take profit position further down than 1.3867. But 1.272 extension of this AB=CD pattern mentioned stands around 1.3790 area. Can I leave my take profit there which is 30 pips lower than the monthly confluence support area, or exactly 1.3760 area?

Thanks commander for your analysis and support.

Well, it's a bit difficult to predict market move pips to pips, but very often, when some significant low stands very close to current market - price gravitates to it, since there are a lot of stops just under it.
If these losses will be triggered, then, I suppose, market could pass 20-30 pips, why not?
But I cant guarantee that this has to happen. It's just impossible...

 

[obulorgeorge]

hello sive

my name is greorge obulor and i my new to fx trading and i just want to say are a great teacher to listen to

 

[Sive Morten]

hello sive

my name is greorge obulor and i my new to fx trading and i just want to say are a great teacher to listen to

Nice to meet you George,
welcome aboard!

 

[David-lee]

Thanks for the great analysis, Iv been listening to your videos every day since I registered with the sight. It seems that there is some kind of order to the randomness of the markets and your use of fib support-resistance levels is something which I definately need to put more time into studying.

 

[erich]

confluence

hi Sive,

in such kind of steep decline of EUR/USD and in such circumstances, where weakness of a important currency confluences with the self fulfilling prophecies and stories of journalists, would you think that euro will reach 1,47 or 1,52 again this year? of course hard to predict, but the bad facts are priced in, sellers should become rare and if the price bounces from the monthly confluence support it's possible to see the 1,50; but would you say, if the price leave the monthly confluence support downwards in the manner of the last days then the confluence support will change to resitance and then there will be no chance to turn to the upside at least 2011 and maybe 2012; would you agree?
Sive, THANK YOU for your daily videos! hope to hear you for longer time!
greetings, Erich

 

[Sive Morten]

hi Sive,

in such kind of steep decline of EUR/USD and in such circumstances, where weakness of a important currency confluences with the self fulfilling prophecies and stories of journalists, would you think that euro will reach 1,47 or 1,52 again this year? of course hard to predict, but the bad facts are priced in, sellers should become rare and if the price bounces from the monthly confluence support it's possible to see the 1,50; but would you say, if the price leave the monthly confluence support downwards in the manner of the last days then the confluence support will change to resitance and then there will be no chance to turn to the upside at least 2011 and maybe 2012; would you agree?
Sive, THANK YOU for your daily videos! hope to hear you for longer time!
greetings, Erich

Hi Erich,
well, current chances to reach 1.50 in nearest term become less and less. You probably right - if we will break 1.3650 K-area then monthly trend will turn bearish downmove probably continue. Current market is very dependable from news and macro data, today as never they are extremely important. That's why it's very difficult to make long-term forecasts.
I suppose we will move as we do - step by step, from one week to another.
To my mind that is best approach i current market environment.