EUR/USD Daily Video, October 24, 2011

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

The situation is very tricky on EUR. Please see more details in my daily video:




The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies

 

[samfx]

Hi Sive,
When the market reaches a new highs or maximum price do you change the "X A" Fib points to the new high?

On the daily chart today the market traded new high above the resistance level and retraced back down over 100 pips, do you change the Fib point that you have showed us in your analysis to the new high of today? or do you wait till end of New York session. If not, at what point in time do you change that?

How about on the 4 or one hour chart, from what I see on the one hour chart the market opened below the 61.8 Fib retracement level of the last trust of Friday session and went up above to the 127.0 level and retraced back down.

To me it make more sense to change point A to the new high for all the Fib retracements that we have on the chart as the time pass by and reach new highs specially on the intra-day chart (one hour), am I right?

Thank you

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,
When the market reaches a new highs or maximum price do you change the "X A" Fib points to the new high?

On the daily chart today the market traded new high above the resistance level and retraced back down over 100 pips, do you change the Fib point that you have showed us in your analysis to the new high of today? or do you wait till end of New York session. If not, at what point in time do you change that?

How about on the 4 or one hour chart, from what I see on the one hour chart the market opened below the 61.8 Fib retracement level of the last trust of Friday session and went up above to the 127.0 level and retraced back down.

To me it make more sense to change point A to the new high for all the Fib retracements that we have on the chart as the time pass by and reach new highs specially on the intra-day chart (one hour), am I right?

Thank you

Hi Samfx,
you're absolutely right - Focus number is always the most recent extreme. When market creates new extreme of current swing - we have to adjust focus. CQG does it automatically.

 

[samfx]

Thank you Sive,

How about Fib Expansion? If market went down/retraced below point C, is that mean the Fib expansion is cancelled? And we need to look for another trust to draw a new Fib expansion.

 

[Sive Morten]

Thank you Sive,

How about Fib Expansion? If market went down/retraced below point C, is that mean the Fib expansion is cancelled? And we need to look for another trust to draw a new Fib expansion.

Well, if market has reached 0.618 target first and then retraced below "C" - then the probability of failure is significant (but not always).
But if market has formed, say bullish ABC, starts some move upward (below B point) but then shows another lower "C' point - this is not mean that ABC has failed. This could be just AB-CD move on "B-C" range - some kind of Gartley "222" pattern.