Stavro D'Amore
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 547
Hello All,
Today we have US Prelim GDP q/q results due at 8:30am, please find my trade plan and synopsis below.
US Prelim GDP q/q
Forecast 2.4%
Previous 2.5%
Pair to trade: USD/JPY
Numbers we need:
BUY USD/JPY 2.7% or Higher
SELL USD/JPY 2.1% or Lower
Economic Impact: High
Typical Result: Good for Currency
Occurrence: 60 days after the month ends
Spike Probability: Good, we can see 30 pips on initial spike
About our Triggers:
US Prelim GDP is forecasted to arrive at 2.4%
We are looking for a deviation of 0.3% either way on this trade.
If we get 0.6% or better I will look to enter a Long position on USD/JPY and if we get
-0.6% or worse I will go short on USD/JPY.
Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see about 30 pips on the initial spike. We have no known conflict for this release. This trade will have a good chance of a 30% retrace on the initial spike
What is it? And why does the market care?
While this is q/q data, it's reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4). The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Advance release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart - Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advance release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy's health.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD
A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD
Method I use to trade this:
Stavro D’Amore Trading Method
I will look for a 30-50% retracement in the original spike before entering a trade; I will close half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at entry price. My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame.
I do recommend spike trading as an option if you are using an ECN broker with auto clicker software or live news feed.
Historical Chart and Data for US GDP
All the best
Stavro D’Amore
Today we have US Prelim GDP q/q results due at 8:30am, please find my trade plan and synopsis below.
US Prelim GDP q/q
Forecast 2.4%
Previous 2.5%
Pair to trade: USD/JPY
Numbers we need:
BUY USD/JPY 2.7% or Higher
SELL USD/JPY 2.1% or Lower
Economic Impact: High
Typical Result: Good for Currency
Occurrence: 60 days after the month ends
Spike Probability: Good, we can see 30 pips on initial spike
About our Triggers:
US Prelim GDP is forecasted to arrive at 2.4%
We are looking for a deviation of 0.3% either way on this trade.
If we get 0.6% or better I will look to enter a Long position on USD/JPY and if we get
-0.6% or worse I will go short on USD/JPY.
Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see about 30 pips on the initial spike. We have no known conflict for this release. This trade will have a good chance of a 30% retrace on the initial spike
What is it? And why does the market care?
While this is q/q data, it's reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4). The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Advance release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart - Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advance release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy's health.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD
A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD
Method I use to trade this:
Stavro D’Amore Trading Method
I will look for a 30-50% retracement in the original spike before entering a trade; I will close half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at entry price. My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame.
I do recommend spike trading as an option if you are using an ECN broker with auto clicker software or live news feed.
Historical Chart and Data for US GDP
All the best
Stavro D’Amore