FOREX PRO Weekly November 28- December 02, 2011

hi asif ..
I dont why but to trade without emotions is not that easy .. yesterday i went nuts if you remember my entrys were missed by 5 pips...and i missed the hole move down ... besides i would like to ask you if you have the book in e-book version what do you tell yourself to get emotionless...

and where does your name come from?

sincerly

Winny
 
TraderBob

I just read Sive's latest post... that 3-drive you mentioned, is this off a futures chart or SPOT? I am looking at SPOT and it doesn't look anything like a 3-drive on my screen.

Well in fact, this is not so important, how you will call it. We even could use just fib extensions to make analysis without calling it as "3-Drive" or something. I agree that this is ugly 3-Drive if we can call it in this way at all. But it has had a chances to become a 3-Drive :)

Sive

the big guys, do they usually trade off futures charts or spot charts, or both?

Both of cause.
 
yousuf, thanks for the advice. can't disagree with that. i know.

that being said, right now, the trend short term seems to point down BUT again in the very short term there seems to be indications making a reversal to 3450/60 probable.

as to the butterfly, who knows indeed... but if it happens it would mean a reversal to the upside to be completed by end of JAN. then EUR crash. if somehow, the ECB or IMF pull some kind of macroeconomic rabbit from their magic hat in the next week or so, it might give us a relief rally until some kind of shock by JAN 2012 when money will flow into USD as a safe haven and the $ index will start moving up in earnest and the EUR collapse.

i can't imagine the EUR starting its meltdown today or this week for that matter. so i still believe the downside will be limited, regardless of the gloomy news. everyone has probably already priced in all the gloom and doom for the week... so what else is left to push the market significantly lower? i don't think much... maybe it's wishful thinking on my part now (for obvious reasons ;-) ) but i feel we might get a nice short squeeze soon.

hey shango, i agree with you on the dollar index theory, that it might be by jan 2012 that we see a rise in USD, therefore leading to the demise of EURO.

But i sincerely believe that the EURO condition will get worse before it gets any better, due to lack of cash by IMF and lack of liquidity of china.

Coming to your squeeze point, look at the following chart. we can see that oversold level is at 1.2958. so retracement is NOT necessary till then.

Also if you look at the BIG AB=CD, we might just see the lights of euro falling below 1.3000 :)

screenshot20111130at085.png


Yousuf.
 
thanks Sive. however, i am confused because this is how I read my chart:

1- if we switch the time frame from H4 to Monthly, couldn't we consider that that gartley is located perhaps not exactly at the top but very close to the top, considering that the bottom is at 0.842x?

2- in the book 'Harmonic Trading Vol 1' the author writes that a bearish Gartley is characterized by AB = 0.618 XA but on my chart the price hit 78.6% fib, which according to the same book is characteristic of a bearish butterfly;

3- the BC leg is a little over 88.6% AB which doesn't seem to make this an ideal pattern, i guess.


could you please explain a little more why you conclude it is a gartley sell? I don't get it.

am i using the wrong book?

if i find a Gartley or Butterfly on a lower time frame, the position of such a structure, whether bottom or top, is it always relative to the most recent session or sessions price action on that time frame? or is it OK to put it in context on a longer time frame, such as looking at its relative position on the monthly chart instead of only H1 or H4?
 
yousuf, i agree. but that's on a long term time frame--your chart looks like a daily chart, i think. i was talking from an intraday/scalp perspective. on an intraday time frame, i figured it might be possible for a short retrace up. beyond that, i am not very convinced yet of the gartley/butterfly scenario and what you mention sounds more likely in fact.

just want to close out my long at target, then go short if 3450 holds.
 
did a quick re-read of both books, pesavento and the harmonic trading vol 1... seems like they are not agreeing with what the exact fib retrace levels are for each leg of gartley/butterfly.... so ... how?who? which one? this is confusing. how much liberty can we/should we take when interpreting the internal structure of these patterns?
 
hi asif ..
I dont why but to trade without emotions is not that easy .. yesterday i went nuts if you remember my entrys were missed by 5 pips...and i missed the hole move down ... besides i would like to ask you if you have the book in e-book version what do you tell yourself to get emotionless...

and where does your name come from?

sincerly

Winny

Hi Winny,


I also have had to learn the very hard way to trade as a professional as i have made all the mistakes that everyone does.
I tried so many systems spent nearly £5000 on education with action to knowledge (In London) but nothing worked as you say the EMOTIONS!! kicked in every time!!! a trade didn't go my way.

I was literally at the end of the road,and in fact i stopped trading for nearly 1 year as was to much stress at that time for me.
But something inside wanted me to continue as i love the concept of trading as to the freedom it can give you done correctly.

I had been following Sives Forum for a long time but didn't believe that this would be true as Sives offers this education for free so cant be any good (human conditioning).
Anyway one day i saw i think may of been Sive mentioning the phycolgy of trading so to be honest as bit of fun!! i decided to look more into this than the system.
I was amazed at what i was learning that trading is nothing to do with anyalis as this just gives you a higher edge thats all!!! and if you learn to play the edge you will make it!!!
As long as you can control the emotions!!! this is a constant check as it will relay force you examine yourself at every pont as from a child your background ethics circumstances all play a role in the way you have been conditioned to which creates your belief system.
This is the secret which you need to re program its not easy even know i have my bas days and if to read and keep my thoughts always positive. If i lose which i do trades to me this is just the cost of doing business as you would do in any other business where you have to buy stock etc for example.

My trading business the stock is cash capital and am making money on probabilities that it!!

I set my risk according to my account size and wait for an opportunity and 2 things happen it works or it doesn't that it! move to next trade as the market is always there!

I after reading started to trade using Sives higher time frames as i am a slightly higher time frame trader,and was amazed how good Sives weekly and daily views on the market are.
He is truly a remarkable man offering us such education for free,as his aim is to make us self sufficient.

Sorry for the long story :) hope will help you .My name is from Pakistan as my parents orginate from there i am based in London.

Happy Trading.

Asif
 
did a quick re-read of both books, pesavento and the harmonic trading vol 1... seems like they are not agreeing with what the exact fib retrace levels are for each leg of gartley/butterfly.... so ... how?who? which one? this is confusing. how much liberty can we/should we take when interpreting the internal structure of these patterns?

Triantus, here is the Gartley "222" 4-hour chart...

About second question - I suggest you to pass through our School, at least through Harmonic patterns chapter...
In fact, there are just two patterns - Butterfly and "222" (except AB=CD of cause) and Bat, Crab are just a variation of them.
Butterfly does not have any conditions for inner retracement depth. Major condition is that all of them stand inside initial XA swing. That's all. The depth just lets you to judge about expansion -will it be 1.27 or 1.618.
 

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