Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,660
EUR/USD Daily Update, Fri 13, January 2012
Good morning, Guys,
Triantus, I'm glad that my work appears to be useful for you, that's particularly why all we're working for, I mean FPA staff.
So, what's new? let's start from daily time frame, since here is couple of thoughts. First, is trend has turned bullish. So, the first condition for potential upward retracement has completed. Move up has started from completing point of 3-Drive buy pattern - maroon 1.618 extension. Also, that is more important - the bottom is at 1.618 extension of most recent swing up. Yes, this could be reverse H&S... At least, 1.618 extension ratio is quite natural for H&S, current development is nice - neither too extended nor contracted, so it might be it.
If this will be the case, then, market probably will proceed to 1.3050-1.31 before showing of any meaningful downward retracement at daily chart. That gives a bit different colours to our 4-hour time frame pattern.
On 4-hour chart trend is also bullish. So if you use daily trend as a context you have to trade only on long side of the market. Price has reached our first destination - K-resisatnce and Agreement with AB=CD of DB pattern. Next traget is Agreement at 1.2908-1.2925 area. Classical target is 1.2975.
Hourly trend tells us that market should continue move up. HEre we have another AB-CD pattern and market has hit 1.0 extension. Pay attention that CD leg is just sky rocketed. Hence, move to 1.2908 (at least ) is very probable. Second moment - bullish dynamic pressure with MACD - market does not support bear trend.
Most important issue here is depth of retracement. I prefer to not see any retracement here, since this is DB. retracement to nearest Fib support 1.28 area will be acceptable, but move below K-support of 1.2765-1.2780 will be a worry sign for DB pattern. This is not quite typical for DP to show deep retracements right after breakout of necklines. I agree at retracement to 1.28, since current level is strong resistance, but not lower.
Move below 1.2760 could lead to DB failure. Anyway this will not be good from DB standpoint.
Good morning, Guys,
Triantus, I'm glad that my work appears to be useful for you, that's particularly why all we're working for, I mean FPA staff.
So, what's new? let's start from daily time frame, since here is couple of thoughts. First, is trend has turned bullish. So, the first condition for potential upward retracement has completed. Move up has started from completing point of 3-Drive buy pattern - maroon 1.618 extension. Also, that is more important - the bottom is at 1.618 extension of most recent swing up. Yes, this could be reverse H&S... At least, 1.618 extension ratio is quite natural for H&S, current development is nice - neither too extended nor contracted, so it might be it.
If this will be the case, then, market probably will proceed to 1.3050-1.31 before showing of any meaningful downward retracement at daily chart. That gives a bit different colours to our 4-hour time frame pattern.
On 4-hour chart trend is also bullish. So if you use daily trend as a context you have to trade only on long side of the market. Price has reached our first destination - K-resisatnce and Agreement with AB=CD of DB pattern. Next traget is Agreement at 1.2908-1.2925 area. Classical target is 1.2975.
Hourly trend tells us that market should continue move up. HEre we have another AB-CD pattern and market has hit 1.0 extension. Pay attention that CD leg is just sky rocketed. Hence, move to 1.2908 (at least ) is very probable. Second moment - bullish dynamic pressure with MACD - market does not support bear trend.
Most important issue here is depth of retracement. I prefer to not see any retracement here, since this is DB. retracement to nearest Fib support 1.28 area will be acceptable, but move below K-support of 1.2765-1.2780 will be a worry sign for DB pattern. This is not quite typical for DP to show deep retracements right after breakout of necklines. I agree at retracement to 1.28, since current level is strong resistance, but not lower.
Move below 1.2760 could lead to DB failure. Anyway this will not be good from DB standpoint.
