EUR/USD Daily Video, January 16, 2012

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,
currently situation looks like downward continuation is more probable. Still, we must be careful and closely monitor some important levels:




The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.

 

[samfx]

Hi Sive,

It's great level to enter short ("38.2 and 61.8" confluence resistance , 100% expansion and weekly pivot point)
Plus the completion of the Gartley 222 pattern pattern as well.

But how about stop loss? I don't see any other level for stop loss other than to place it above the
previous swing 1.2880 level which is over 150 pips stop loss. it's to much to risk! No?

Any other suggestions? Your feedback is very much appreciated.

Thank you Sive for the daily analysis.

 

[asif faryad]

Hi Samfx,

Risk is a very personal issue, If your trading on say for example the daily time frame,then your risk/reward should be a minuim of 1/1 or more realistically 2/1.

So on your scenory if you can see that there is a probability of catching 150 or 300 pips and your plan says there is high probability of this then its good.

have a great day

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,

It's great level to enter short ("38.2 and 61.8" confluence resistance , 100% expansion and weekly pivot point)
Plus the completion of the Gartley 222 pattern pattern as well.

But how about stop loss? I don't see any other level for stop loss other than to place it above the
previous swing 1.2880 level which is over 150 pips stop loss. it's to much to risk! No?

Any other suggestions? Your feedback is very much appreciated.

Thank you Sive for the daily analysis.

Hi Sam FX,
There could be two different major approaches. First one, is if you want to anticipate reversal around 1.2725 area. Then you can place stop, for instance above next Agreement 1.2786 or, even 35-40 pips above our confluence area.
Second scenario is to wait a start of move down from it- as by trend as by price itself, drop time frame to 15 min chart, enter short at nearest 0.382 retracement and place stop above for example 0.618 resistance from this starting move down. You can see that here you have a lot of possibilities with different agressivity level and very flexible stop opportunities.
The major thing here is to determine crucial points of your context, as I call it "point of no return". Just as example, let's suppose that you never go against the pivot, so, you may place stop 30-40 pips above pivot at houly close at this case. If your context is trend by MACD - use MACD, and so on.

 

[samfx]

Thank you Sive and Asif for the recommendations and suggestions.