FOREX PRO Weekly February 13-17, 2012

[Sive Morten]

but sive, the D point is below the X point. so how could it be a gartley?

also, are you saying that even if such a pattern appears as we have here, BUT because it's not at a bottom, therefore we should disregard it? only consider bullish gartleys and variations as significant if they appear at bottoms, and vice-versa?

Oh, I didn't catch it. If so, then it is not even "222"...

Triantus, under every pattern lays some market mechanics, some foundation. This is not just "picture". Mostly by this fact butterfly "Buy" could appear only on bottom.
May be there will be some pattern that looks like Butterfly "Buy" at top, but we can't call it like that and we can't apply the same rules to trade it, because this pattern will have absolutely different foundation in terms of market mechanics.

It almost the same, as you will see H&S on bottom, or reverse H&S on top. How to trade it? What to do if bullish reversal pattern, say, reverse H&S appears on top - buy or sell? What foundation does it have?

 

[Sive Morten]

<a rel="nofollow" href="http://marketvisiontv.com/welcome/?id=8037_jEtgLNS87e86"target"_blank">Eur/Usd</A>

Sive, Do you agree with this view?

Well, I do not use EW, but in longer term I expect 1.16. Currently this scenario is still valid. Technically I do not see now possibility for so deep move up as they said.

 

[maarnio]

I am currently leaning on the scenario laid in the video. It would be identical to what we saw last year (the first 4 months). The record short interest in Euro also speaks for that scenario. If the SP500 can make new highs this year why couldn't euro rally to 1.40-1.45?

Well, I do not use EW, but in longer term I expect 1.16. Currently this scenario is still valid. Technically I do not see now possibility for so deep move up as they said.

 

[Sive Morten]

Maarnio, and
Have you tracked their previous researches? How accurate they are? If they were accurate, then why not they become acurate again... Everything could happen. Techical analysis usually lets us to anticipate possible fundamental issues. I've seen it many times.

 

[maarnio]

I am not their subscriber but I have followed their work via Twitter (maybe 1 year). I can't say that they are 100% accurate but maybe 70-80%. I think that they have a similar experience that you have.

Maarnio, and
Have you tracked their previous researches? How accurate they are? If they were accurate, then why not they become acurate again... Everything could happen. Techical analysis usually lets us to anticipate possible fundamental issues. I've seen it many times.

 

[4x4Ever]

Hi Sive I was just curious about this. You mentioned that in your dollar index analysis it translated to around 1.15-1.16 on the EUR/USD. How do you come up with this figure? Is there a formula you use to calculate what the index equals in terms of the eur/usd or other crosses? And if so can you share it?

Also FYI, Dollar Index monthly, daily and 4 hour times are all bullish. Only the weekly is currently bearish. This example isn't pretty but in your opinion can this been treated or viewed as a B&B Buy on the weekly chart or possibly LAL? The thrust isn't great but it has penetrated the 3x3 nicely and bounced of heavy support area. The support area consists of 38.2 fib from large down move, now acting as support. As well as a 61.8 extension target from an ABC move that started this push up and the current weekly pivot area. Thanks for your opinion, its a little bit of a stretch but I can't decide whether to view it as such or not.

* also I should mention that 61.8 and 100% targets of that move have been achieved. So looking for next possible targets I would think 61.8 resistance followed by 1.27 extension? Of course provided our trend continues to the upside. Nice channel currently formed as well.

 

[Venelin]

I am not their subscriber but I have followed their work via Twitter (maybe 1 year). I can't say that they are 100% accurate but maybe 70-80%. I think that they have a similar experience that you have.

Hi guys, I have been following CM for about 1.5 years and I may say they are pretty good in their analysis!But to my experience EW is best if used in longer term perspective with 70% accuracy...In trading options is best imho! For shorter term trading-it is too many if`s and when`s with EW and I personally like Sive`s style -utilizing DiNapoli and harmonic trading! Most of us here are intraday trading and skalpers and not many position themselves in 3-4 months time span-that `s more typical for professional traders(many of them through options and using EW too)!But I may be very wrong of course

 

[Venelin]

Hi Sive,
From DiNapoli`s work is it OK to adjust TF for directional patterns? I see nice 2H B&B...
View attachment 4853

 

[Venelin]

Hi Sive,
From DiNapoli`s work is it OK to adjust TF for directional patterns? I see nice 2H B&B...
View attachment 4853

Also 1.3110 nice K area

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive I was just curious about this. You mentioned that in your dollar index analysis it translated to around 1.15-1.16 on the EUR/USD. How do you come up with this figure? Is there a formula you use to calculate what the index equals in terms of the eur/usd or other crosses? And if so can you share it?

Also FYI, Dollar Index monthly, daily and 4 hour times are all bullish. Only the weekly is currently bearish. This example isn't pretty but in your opinion can this been treated or viewed as a B&B Buy on the weekly chart or possibly LAL? The thrust isn't great but it has penetrated the 3x3 nicely and bounced of heavy support area. The support area consists of 38.2 fib from large down move, now acting as support. As well as a 61.8 extension target from an ABC move that started this push up and the current weekly pivot area. Thanks for your opinion, its a little bit of a stretch but I can't decide whether to view it as such or not.

* also I should mention that 61.8 and 100% targets of that move have been achieved. So looking for next possible targets I would think 61.8 resistance followed by 1.27 extension? Of course provided our trend continues to the upside. Nice channel currently formed as well.

HI Markus, here is thoughts about Index :
https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-forum/sives-analysis-archive/17534-forex-pro-weekly-october-31-november-04-2011-a.html

Also 1.3110 nice K area

Well, Napoli tells about adjusting for RRT pattern, but anyway, you can try to trade it... I also think about it.